Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
Slate Overview
- RJ Harvey (RB, UCF) stands out at the running back position with the highest ownership on the slate at 47.04% and a median projection of 27.95 versus UH. At the quarterback spot, John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) will be popular with projected ownership of 33.04%. Notably, based on ownership many lineups may feature both Plumlee and his RB RJ Harvey. At the wide receiver position, Tetairoa McMillan (ARIZ) is commanding substantial attention with 35.86% ownership and a median projection of 23.04. McMillan has similar median and ceiling at a discounted price relative to the other expensive, high-upside WRs on the slate.
- UCF, OKST, ARIZ and TENN look to be the primary choices for stacking based on the high ownership of their players. Notably, eight of the ten highest-owned players on the slate are from these teams. However, teams like UH, UTAH and both sides of UW/WSU are under-owned relative to their ceiling and should be considered for GPPs.
- For those looking to diversify their lineups, players like Blake Corum (RB, MICH), Jase McClellan (RB, BAMA), and Jay’Lynn Polk have ownership projected below 5% but still boast high ceilings. Furthermore, spending all the way up at the WR spot today will inherently give you a contrarian roster construction.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: John Rhys Plumlee
RB: RJ Harvey
WR1: Tetairoa McMillan
WR2: Squirrel White
Flex: Jalyn Wright or Jonah Coleman
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Donovan Smith
RB: Blake Corum
WR1: Malik Nabers or Ja’Lynn Polk
WR2: Kyle Williams
Flex: Ray Davis
DFS Stack Considerations
UW (University of Washington)
UH (University of Houston)
WSU (Washington State University)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
The popular roster construction is going to be high-end RBs paired with 2 value plays and complimented with midrange players to fill it out. Therefore, keeping this build but rostering lower-owned players can be a way to differentiate your lineup in large tournaments. Additionally, there are several high-total games that are carrying low ownership. Focusing heavily on UW/WSU, the UH side of UH/UCF, or jamming in LSU could be a profitable strategy. Much of the ownership today is on players from the late afternoon games. Therefore, targeting lower-owned/high upside teams or game environments particularly in the noon set of games could be a strong strategy in GPPs.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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