Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- As it currently stands, ownership is spread out due the large number of games, but Rangers/Brewers/Phillies are the most popular.
- The pitcher ownership is condensing around Ohtani, Aaron Nola, and Jon Gray all of whom are priced up which will leave the midrange untouched.
- Models are high on the Twins but that game is 30 degrees with snow in the forecast, next highest are the Brewers who are one of the popular teams to stack. Additionally, the Phillies and Rangers rate will despite decent ownership all of which tells us the most important thing to do is find leverage at pitcher.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Bryce Elder, Braxton Garrett, Seth Lugo
All three of the top True AVG pitchers have incredibly low ownership due to a combination of matchup and perceived talent. All three also make for tremendous GPP plays.
Zeros: JP Sears, Yusei Kikuchi*, Zach Plesac
* Box score watchers are going to see that Kikuchi pitched a gem against a red-hot Rays team in his last outing. His last game combined with the general sentiment that he’s not bad will lower Yankees ownership outside of Volpe/Judge. However, his True AVG remains bad so we shouldn’t be stuck on a one game sample size.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Aaron Nola
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Bryson Stott
3B: Josh Jung
SS: Ezequiel Duran
OF: Jesse Winker
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Freddy Peralta
1B: Garrett Cooper
2B: Adam Frazier
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Anthony Volpe
OF: Jorge Soler
DFS Stack Considerations
Brewers
Mets
Phillies
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
The ownership on this slate is fairly condensed despite it being 12 games. Out of 24 available options, pitcher ownership is centered around 3 players. The easiest way to build in small field GPPs is going to be pivoting to Jon Gray and/or Freddy Peralta over Nola/Ohtani with one of MIL/PHI/TEX as your main stack. Secondary stack considerations are going to be built around attacking low True AVG pitchers. Good luck and let’s collect some trophies!
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