Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Hunter Brown with RedSox. Secondary ownership is falling on Blue Jays, Dbacks, and Rockies. Additional ownership is on Padres and Phillies on Fanduel.
- Julio Teheran rates as the top pitcher in the models and is an excellent pivot off of Schmidt. However, for those that prefer missionary you can just fade Blue Jays and not play Teheran. Clarke Schmidt and Hunter Brown rate well but will be high owned so make sure to get different with bats if playing them.
- The Diamondbacks rate as the top stack in the models with what might be the highest 8+ of any team this season. The Reds, Rockies, Phillies, and RedSox rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Julio Teheran, Clarke Schmidt, Hunter Brown
Julio Teheran has made only one start this season, but his True AVG says he’s back from the dead. Additionally, he projects well and is direct pivot off of Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt and Brown are the next two heroes but will both be heavily owned.
Zeros: Dinelson Lamet, Carlos Carrasco, Tommy Henry
Lamet and Henry face each other in a dumpster fire contest. Understandably, the Dbacks ad Rockies are carrying some ownership. However, the Phillies are going under-owned versus Carrasco who is also terrible.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Clarke Schmidt
1B: Spencer Steer
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Justin Turner
SS: Trea Turner
OF: Corbin Carroll
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Julio Teheran
1B: Christian Walker
2B: Emmanuel Valdez
3B: Nick Senzel
SS: Matt McLain
OF: Jake McCarthy
DFS Stack Considerations
Diamondbacks
Reds
Rockies
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Schmidt and Dbacks makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CIN, COL, PHI). In large field you can consider fading RedSox as they rate the lowest of the viable stacks but will be the highest owned. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Hunter Brown with either George Kirby or James Paxton. However, both Kirby and Paxton can be faded. Clarke Schmidt is the safe pivot option while Teheran is freak nasty.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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