Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Darvish and either Strider or Cole with Braves bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Yankees, Orioles, and Padres.
- Spencer Strider rates as the top pitcher in the models by a country mile. Strider will be popular it’s likely best to get different elsewhere. Logan Allen and Sonny Gray are the next two highest rated pitchers in the models.
- The Dodgers rate as the top stack in the models and will be leverage against Gerrit Cole. The Yankees, Padres, and Braves rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Logan Allen, Sonny Gray
Spencer Strider is pricey tonight, but the talent warrants it. Given how significantly higher he projects over everyone else this is chalk worth eating. Thankfully, Logan Allen, the #2 hero, is a cheaper pairing that makes it feasible to play Strider and decent bats.
Zeros: Gerrit Cole, Alex Cobb, Kyle Bradish
Gerrit Cole may be a surprise to see in this section, but he has gotten beat up a bit this season. Cole still has the K upside to avoid complete disaster but as the second most expensive pitcher on the slate he’s a clear fade. Both pitchers in the BAL/SF game are terrible and yet bats on either side are going under-owned; take advantage here.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Adam Frazier
3B: Donovan Solano
SS: Brandon Crawford
OF: Aaron Judge
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Logan Allen
1B: Jakob Bauers
2B: Brett Wisely
3B: Ha-Seong Kim
SS: Dansby Swanson
OF: James Outman
DFS Stack Considerations
Dodgers
Yankees
Padres
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Strider and Dodgers makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYY, SDP, BAL). In large field the models support fading both Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish. Additionally, the Braves rate as only the 4th best stack but will be the highest owned by a wide margin. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Yu Darvish with one of Strider/Cole. However, you can save some salary by pivoting to the higher projected Logan Allen or Sonny Gray over Darvish/Cole.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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