Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Corbin Burnes with Giants bats. Secondary ownership is falling on Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Angels.
- Max Scherzer rates as the top pitcher in the models and is an excellent pivot from Burnes. Charlie Morton, Zach Davies, and Logan Webb rate as the best of the rest.
- The Diamondbacks rate as the top stack in the models and look like solid chalk. The Guardians are right behind the Dbacks and then there is a steep drop. The Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Orioles, and Reds rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, Zach Davies
Tonight’s three heroes are also the top three projected pitchers in the models. Additionally, of the three only Morton is garnering significant ownership. Max and Davies make strong GPP plays tonight.
Zeros: Kutter Crawford, Patrick Corbin, Connor Seabold
Attacking Seabold and Corbin won’t be sneaky tonight. Both the Giants and Dbacks will be popular, however, the Guardians will be virtually unowned.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Charlie Morton
1B: LaMonte Wade Jr.
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: Elly De La Cruz
OF: Shohei Ohtani
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Max Scherzer
1B: Matt Mervis
2B: Andres Gimenez
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Steven Kwan
DFS Stack Considerations
Diamondbacks
Guardians
Blue Jays
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Max and Diamondbacks makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CLE, TOR, BAL). In large field the models support fading both Corbin Burnes and Dodgers bats. In addition to the top stacks, the Giants, Angels, and Reds are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Burnes paired with one of Bibee/Morton. However, fading Burnes and pivoting to Max makes sense. Additionally, Jack Flaherty rates the same as Bibee but will be 1/4 the ownership.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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