Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Joe Ryan with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Angels and Blue Jays. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Gausman, Darvish, Woo and France.
- Bryan Woo rates as the top pitcher in the models and is a strong play in both cash and GPPs. Joe Ryan, Kevin Gausman, and Tristian McKenzie rate as the best of the rest.
- The Padres rate as the top stack in the models and will be virtually unowned. The Brewers, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Yankees and Cardinals rate as the next best options. Worth noting the models support fading chalk Braves.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Bryan Woo, Dinelson Lamet, Kevin Gausman
Woo not only tops true AVG tonight but is at the top of the projections as well. Granted, he may not get a ton of work but at his price he can pay off in 4-5 innings. The Braves are the only true chalk as far as stacks, but this may be a good spot to fade the consensus considering Lamet has the #2 true AVG on the slate. Gausman is always in play, but is the most expensive arm tonight and they are other high-upside options for less salary.
Zeros: Trevor Williams, Tanner Houck, JP France
Likely due to the large size of the slate, the field doesn’t seem to be attacking any of these Zeroes. The Marlins, Yankees, and Reds will all come in under-owned relative to the matchup advantage.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Bryan Woo
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Brandon Drury
3B: Makail Garcia
SS: Carlos Correa
OF: Jack Suwinski
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Tristian McKenzie
1B: Alec Bohm
2B: Jace Peterson
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Joey Wendle
OF: Fernando Tatis Jr.
DFS Stack Considerations
Padres
Brewers
Marlins
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Woo and Brewers or Marlins makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SDP, ARI, and WAS). In large field the models support fading Darvish/France and Braves. In addition to the top stacks, the Diamondbacks, Nationals, Yankees, and Cardinals are all viable options. However, there are additional teams with an 8+ over 25%. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Ryan paired with Woo or France. Ryan and Woo look good in the models, but France can be faded. Additionally, McKenzie looks like a good GPP pivot off of Darvish.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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