Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Spencer Strider with Orioles bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Reds, Mets, Mariners and Rangers. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Castillo, Verlander, Cease and Heaney.
- Strider rates as the top pitcher in the models and it’s not close. Despite massive ownership it might be wise to just eat the Strider chalk since most of the other chalk pitchers don’t rate as well and can be faded. Matthew Boyd and Dylan Cease rate as the best of the rest. After that there is a group of 5-6 pitchers that all project the same; just play the lower owned of that group.
- The Mariners rate as the top stack in the models and while they will be popular, their ownership isn’t prohibitive. The Braves, Orioles, White Sox, and Mets rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ over 25% is viable in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Dylan Cease, Reid Detmers
Strider will be upwards of 70% owned depending on. the contest, but he his the best option by far tonight. Similarly, Dylan Cease is another True AVG hero that will be popular. The best option of this group may be Detmers at a lower price and ownership relative to the rest of the popular pitchers.
Zeros: Trevor Williams, Brandon Willamson, Justin Verlander
There is absolutely nothing sneaky about attacking either Willams or Williamson. However, Verlander may be the leverage point tonight. The Brewers will be unowned versus the popular Verlander and are fairly cheap.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: Spencer Steer
2B: Zach Short
3B: Ramon Urias
SS: Matt McLain
OF: Aaron Hicks
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Matt Boyd
1B: Mike Ford
2B: Andy Ibanez
3B: Nick Senzel
SS: Tim Anderson
OF: Matt Vierling
DFS Stack Considerations
Mariners
Braves
Orioles
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Strider and Mariners makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (ATL, CWS, and DET). In large field the models support fading Verlander and Castillo. In addition to the top stacks, the White Sox, Mets, Tigers, Nationals and Reds are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Strider paired with Verlander. You may also see Cease/Detmers paired with Strider as well if people need some savings. Matt Boyd stands out as the top SP2 in GPPs.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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