Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Blake Snell with Dodgers bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Rockies, Rangers and Orioles. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Nola, German, and Senga.
- Blake Snell rates as the top pitcher in the models but is the most popular arm on the slate. Braxton Garrett and Trevor Richards rate as the best of the rest. Additionally, they are both relatively close in projection to Snell but will be virtually unowned.
- The Mets rate as the top stack in the models and will be low-owned The Dodgers are right behind NYM, with the Brewers, White Sox, Angels, Padres and Orioles as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ over 25% is viable in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kaleb Ort, Blake Snell, Braxton Garrett
Kaleb Ort can likely be ignored due to short sample shenanigans. Snell will be popular but for good reason. Garrett looks like a strong GPP option.
Zeros: Michael Grove, Kyle Freeland, Dane Dunning
Michael Grove and Kyle Freeland face off against each other in Coors so both the Dodgers and Rockies will be popular. Detroit has been a somewhat popular value stack lately and get another good matchup versus Dane Dunning.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Blake Snell
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Miguel Vargas
3B: Ryan McMahon
SS: Mookie Betts (SS eligible on DK)
OF: Jonny DeLuca
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Braxton Garrett
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Yonny Hernandez
3B: Nicky Lopez
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Giancarlo Stanton
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Dodgers
Brewers
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Garrett and Dodgers makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (NYM, MIL, and CWS). In large field the models support fading Nola and German. In addition to the top stacks, the White Sox, Angels, Padres, Orioles, Reds and Phillies also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Domingo German paired with one of Snell/Nola. General roster construction is going to be high/low at pitcher with Dodgers and a mid-range secondary stack.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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