Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Luis Castillo with Mets bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Giants and Braves. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Charlie Morton and Eduardo Rodriguez.
- Eduardo Rodriguez rates as the top pitcher in the models, but has only the 5th highest ownership projection. Kenta Maeda and Ross Stripling rate as the best of the rest. After those three, no pitcher projects for more than 16 DK points.
- The Mets rate as the top stack in the models, but will also be the highest owned. The Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Padres, Tigers, DBacks and Yankees rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Eduardo Rodriguez, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling
All three True AVG Heroes tonight are also among the top median projected pitchers as well. ERod has always had K upside and gets a strong matchup versus the Royals. Maeda has been volatile this season but his depressed price tag helps mitigate some risk. Stripling rates well versus a Reds team that has struggled against good pitching, however, pitch count is a concern as he continues to work back from injury.
Zeros: Graham Ashcraft, Kyle Hendricks, Luis Castillo
Ashcraft has found himself at the bottom of True AVG much of the season and can be attacked every start. However, this will not be sneaky as the GIants are projected to be popular tonight. The next two Zeroes can be taken advantage of at low ownership with Nationals and Twins bats respectively.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Eduardo Rodriguez
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Oswaldo Peraza
3B: Wilmer Flores
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Brandon Nimmo
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Kenta Maeda
1B: Shohei Ohtani
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Miles Mastrobuoni
SS: Zach Neto
OF: Luis Robert Jr
DFS Stack Considerations
Mets
Angels
Cubs
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Rodriguez and Mets makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (LAA, TOR, ARI and MIN). In large field the models support fading Castillo/Verlander/Rodon/Morton. Additionally, you can lower exposure to Giants and Braves considering their projected ownership versus projection. In addition to the top stacks, the Blue Jays, DBacks, Padres, Tigers and Yankeezalso look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Castillo paired with one of Verlander/Rodon/Morton. However, none of them rates particularly well and there are clear pivots.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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