Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Mike Conley is going to be a somewhat surprisingly popular play in DFS tonight. While some of this is due to recency bias, he does have several factors in his favor. First, the matchup versus is a positive one both in terms of pace, projected team total, and fantasy boost allowed. Secondly, Conley has seen an uptick in his per minute rate and is up to 0.97 FPPM over the last month. Finally, given his current rates and minutes projection he grades out as a strong value at his price point on both sites.
- Keegan Murray has seen a significant bump in minutes lately, playing over 35 minutes in the last 3 games. Despite a tough matchup versus the Grizzlies, if Murray is going to see that many minutes at his current price he’s one of the best values on the slate. That being said, this isn’t sneaky by any means and ownership is going to reflect Murray’s strong value.
- Derrick White should play over 30 minutes tonight with both Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon ruled out. These injuries leave the Celtics backcourt incredibly thin and the bulk of the minutes should go to a combination of White and Pritchard. However, there are a few concerns. One concern is Derrick White’s price putting him in the mid-range chalk area where there are multiple pivots at lower ownership. The other concern is that both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are capable of running the offense and taking on increased ball-handling duties.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Mike Conley
Desmond Bane
Keegan Murray
Jalen Duren
Walker Kessler
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Trae Young, LaMelo Ball (if he plays), D’Angelo Russell
SG: Dejounte Murray, Zach LaVine, Jaylen Brown
SF: Harrison Barnes, Saddiq Bey, Josh Hart
PF: Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Jerami Grant
C: Alperen Sengun, Nikola Vucevic, Brook Lopez
Popular DFS Player: Mike Conley
Price: $5,300/$5,700
Own%: 45.26%/58.11%
Value DFS Player: Keegan Murray
Price: $4,400/$5,300
5x%: 76.10%/61.00%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Derrick White
Price: $5,400/$5,500
LevX: -2.21/-33.34
NBA DFS final thoughts
If Ja Morant is ruled out this would open up some fantastic value. Unfortunately, this is the last game of the night so we may not get that news early. That said, it may be wise to leave some roster spots flexible for late swaps in your lineups tonight. Keegan Murray and Jalen Duren (on Draftkings) look to be two of the stronger chalk values given the relative lack of pivots at their price, however, the remaining chalk value options all have a decent amount of pivots available at lower ownership. This is shaping up to be a fairly wide open slate with a lot of options viable. Good luck tonight!
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