Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Vince Williams, Jordan Goodwin, Ziaire Williams, Santi Aldama, and Jeremy Grant. Notably, Memphis has an incredibly short rotation leading to big minutes for cheap plays. Additionally, Donovan Mitchell was just ruled out and Luka, Anthony Edwards, De’Aaron Fox are all questionable.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 4 value players complemented by 2 higher mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrated heavily on Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Maxey, Jayson Tatum and Scottie Barnes. Based on this, spending up on Luka, Sabonis, or Steph Curry seems like a good option on the high end.
- Players such as Rudy Gobert, Jalen Duren, and Cade Cunningham are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, mid-range plays such as Jonathan Kuminga, Chris Paul, and Tre Mann look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Jordan Goodwin
Ziaire Williams
Vince Williams
Santi Aldma
Duop Reath
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Lamar Stevens (Value)
Max Strus (Midrange)
Jakob Poeltl (Midrange)
Steph Curry (Stud)
Luka Doncic (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be focused on a value core of Grizzlies/Duop Reath paired with a couple $7k guys and 2 stars. Thankfully, this makes it easy to get different tonight. While you can opt to forgo the Memphis value they do project strongly. However, you can leverage the chalk build by playing lesser-owned options like Steph Curry and Pascal Siakam. Additionally, you can opt to spend all the way up to Luka. The Paydirt models are heavy on MEM/POR/CLE as spots to target with secondary exposure to the Wolves and Warriors. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.