Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Kevin Durant projects to be one of the highest owned players in DFS tonight. Furthermore, on Draftkings he is projected to be 2X as owned as the next closest player in his price range. The simplest way to get different tonight is to just play any other spend up.
- Jalen McDaniels has been averaging over 25 minutes per game off the bench for the Hornets. With Gordon Hayward not expected to play tonight McDaniels should see 30+ minutes. In addition to the increased minutes, he should see increased usage as well as he took a season-high 18 shots last game after Hayward went down.
- Tyrese Maxey will undoubtedly benefit from the absence of James Harden tonight. However, he comes with massive ownership. While he projects as a fine play, his price is in a similar place as multiple other players with similar situations and projections. Therefore, despite the solid median projection, Maxey is far from a “must-play” tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Popular DFS Play: Kevin Durant
Price: $10,300/$10,400
Own%: 37.2%/41.27%
The Brooklyn Nets were a dumpster fire but that fire has been put out. It has been put out with a mixture of urine and manure and we are now left with the stinking, charred remains. Perhaps Kevin Durant can rise from the grave and resurrect the excitement fans had for this team coming into the season. Due to reasons, Durant will have no shortage of opportunity tonight. With Kyrie and Simmons off of the floor Durant has nearly a 40% usage rate. Additionally, he should see an uptick in his rebounding and assist rates. He projects great, however, even with his projection it’s hard to justify him being so much higher owned than the next elite player.
DFS Value Play: Jalen McDaniels
Price: $4,500/$5,300
5x%: 78.70%/70.40%
Jalen McDaniels stands to benefit from a shortened rotation due to multiple Hornets set to miss tonight’s game. McDaniels is underpriced for his increased role and the models suggest that he should easily hit value tonight. One thing to be mindful of, however, is that his fantasy output last game was inflated due to 5 steals. Steals are not the most predictable stat (some would even say luck) and McDaniels on the season is averaging 1.3 steals per game.
Player to avoid in DFS: Tyrese Maxey
Price: $6,500/$8,200
LevX: -24.12/-6.94
Tyrese Maxey is not a bad DFS play in a vacuum. In fact he projects quite well tonight with Harden off the court. He should see all the minutes he can handle and is averaging almost 1.5 FPPM without James Harden. Despite all of that, he finds himself in a price range with no less than five other players all within plus/minus three points of his median projection. Several of whom are at significantly lower ownership. This is really a play based on contest selection and the collective ownership of the rest of your lineup.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight really comes down to what you decide to do with the following three players: Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey, and Kevin Durant. Not only are they three of the highest projected owned players, they are sure to be jammed into most optimizer builds. Nevertheless, they all still grade out as strong players. If you choose to play them make sure you are getting different elsewhere. Conversely, you could build the optimal lineup and just swap those three out. Good luck tonight!
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