Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Devin Booker gets a great matchup against the Lakers and should continue to benefit from the absence of Chris Paul. Booker has been averaging just over 28 points and 7 assists since Paul has been out. Consequently, Booker will likely be the highest owned spend up in DFS tonight.
- Bones Hyland will continue to be a strong value play as long as Jokic and Murray are sidelined. The Nuggets get a great matchup versus the Pistons who have been getting absolutely torched by opposing point guards. Hyland should continue to feast in this spot.
- Shake Milton is coming off of a strong game and should see very high ownership. However, there are concerns with just how effective this offense can be without Harde/Maxey/Embiid. Additionally, Milton does not have a median projection significantly higher than others in his price range on both sites.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
The Lakers and Pistons are both giving it up as far as FPPM boosts to opponents. Unfortunately, that’s no secret and players from the Suns and Nuggets are both going to be pretty popular tonight. Conversely, Phoenix is a fairly negative matchup so while opportunity is available with Lebron out, the matchup for the Lakers isn’t great.
Popular DFS Play: Devin Booker
Price: $9,300/$9,900
Own%: 54.36%/51.27%
Devin Booker is averaging 1.22 FPPM without Chris Paul and that should be even higher with the FPPM boost allowed by the Lakers. Booker is projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate and is the priority spend-up for most people. That said, his median projection isn’t massive considering his price but he does still have an elite ceiling.
DFS Value Play: Bones Hyland
Price: $6,700/$6,500
5x%: 49.40%/67.10%
Jokic and Murray are expected to miss tonight’s game which makes Bones Hyland a strong value play once again. He continues to have over a 30% usage rate and is averaging almost 1.3 FPPM. Additionally, this is one of the best matchups in DFS for PGs and Hyland should play 35+ minutes. However, keep an eye on news as Hyland was reported questionable with an illness earlier today. If he’s out substitute Bruce Brown in this paragraph.
Player to avoid in DFS: Shake Milton
Price: $5,300/$5,800
LevX: -30.00/-40.13
Embiid, Harden, and Maxey are all out for the Sixers tonight. This opens up essentially all of the usage for the team. However, it also makes them a very bad basketball team. That said somebody is going to have to score and as a capable guard this will make Shake Milton extremely popular. Despite the increased minutes and opportunity he still doesn’t have a crazy high median projection. Additionally, there are quite a few player in his range with similar projections at a fraction of the ownership.
NBA DFS final thoughts
The vast majority of lineups are going to contain players from three teams exclusively. The Suns, Sixers, and Nuggets are going to command a ton of ownership. Despite the high ownership there is some strong value on each of those teams, but by inserting some players from other teams you’ll be able to differentiate yourself. Good luck tonight!
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