Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Jaden Ivey, Justin Holiday, Cade Cunningham, Malcolm Brogdon, and Simone Fontecchio. Notably, Jokcic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon are all out for Denver. While this does open up a ton of value it also makes the Nuggets a pretty terrible basketball team and will likely impact their overall efficiency.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 3 value players, complemented by 3 mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrating on Joel Embiid and AD/LeBron. Based on this ownership Tyrese Haliburton at under 10% projected ownership looks like a fantastic GPP option.
- Players such as Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Willamson are intriguing GPP plays just don’t play Zion and BI together. Additionally, value plays like Jalen Smith, Christian Braun, and Danilo Gallinari look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Jaden Ivey
Simone Fontacchino
Justin Holiday
Malcolm Brogdon
Joel Embiid
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Daniel Theis (Value)
Christian Braun (Value)
Daniel Gafford (Midrange)
Kyle Kuzma (Stud)
Tyrese Haliburton (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
There is some incredibly thin value chalk tonight in guys like Simone Fontacchino, Justin Holiday, and DeAndre Jordan. Thankfully, this makes decisions easier in regards to finding pivots. However, given how popular the tars and scrubs build will be, if they hit value and you fade you’re dead dead. Additionally, ownership in the $9k+ range is heavily concentrated on a few players making both of the Tyrese’s strong GPP plays along with Brandon Ingram. The Paydirt models are heavy on DEN/LAL/DET/PHI as spots to target with secondary exposure to LAC/UTA. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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