Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Aaron Holiday, and Jaden Ivey. Notably, most of this chalk is coming from two teams in MEM and HOU respectively. This is mainly attributable to both teams being short-handed tonight.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 2 value players under $5k complemented by 5 mid-range players and 2 stars in the $8-9k range. Ownership on the high end is concentrating on Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Tyrese Maxey. Based on this ownership, Devin Booker looks like a strong GPP option in this range.
- Players such as Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram, and Zion Willamson are intriguing GPP plays just don’t play Zion and BI together. Additionally, midrange plays like Malik Monk, Ausar Thompson, and Franz Wagner look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Jaden Ivey
Desmond Bane
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Santi Aldama
Alperen Sengun
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Trey Lyles (Value)
Dennis Schroder (Midrange)
Cole Anthony (Midrange)
Kyle Kuzma (Stud)
De’Aaron Fox (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
There is not a lot of strong valure plays tonight and the options that stand out will be popular. However, when it comes to the midrange chalk there is far more opportunity to be different from the field. Thankfully, this makes decisions easier in regards to finding pivots. The vast majority of lineups tonight are going to contain at least 2 Grizzlies, 2 Rockets, and a midrange PG. The Paydirt models are heavy on DET/ORL/MEM/HOU as spots to target with secondary exposure to PHX/LAL/SAC. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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