Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Tre Mann gets a significant bump in minutes and usage with Shai out tonight. Additionally, Mann gets a great matchup versus the hapless Spurs. At near-min price Tre Mann is going to be the first player plugged into most DFS lineups.
- Pokusevski gets the same benefits as Tre Mann and is slightly underpriced on both sites. Due to this combination of factors the models have him with the highest 5x% on both Draftkings and Fanduel. Multiple Thunder is likely going to be a popular roster build tonight.
- Luguentz Dort continues the OKC trend. However, he is not as cheap as either Mann or Poku. In his price range on either site there are no less than 6 other comparable players with lower ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
DEM Overview
OKC and San Antonio are two of the top matchups for FPPM boosts and are playing each other. A lot of chalk is coming in on the Thunder side but there are a couple lower owned plays for the Spurs. Minnesota is also pretty bad and will be without KAT but low ownership on Memphis players. Interestingly, no one is going back to the Clippers despite another good FPPM matchup tonight against Utah. Lots of overlooked spots to capitalize on tonight.
Popular DFS Play: Tre Mann
Price: $3,300/$4,400
Own%: 70.00%/55.16%
Tre Mann should play about 30 minutes tonight and is averaging 0.84 FPPM with no Shai Glizzy. This alone would have him hitting 8x value given his price on Draftkings. However, the Thunder without Shai are a pretty bad team so it’s reasonable to expect the offense to be ugly. Thankfully they get a plus matchup with the Spurs who are so bad the Thunder are still -3 favorites with their star player sitting.
DFS Value Play: Aleksej Pokusevski
Price: $4,600/$5,000
5x%: 64.10%/68.00%
Poku has been a solid fantasy point per minute producer this season. With no SGA he should see a positive bump in both minutes and usage making him a strong value play at his current price on both sites. While he may not have a huge ceiling, he should provide a solid floor tonight helping to fill out a generally thinner PF/F position in rosters.
Player to avoid in DFS: Luguentz Dort
Price: $5,400/$5,500
LevX: -30.99/-44.18
Luguentz Dort is yet another popular Thunder player tonight. Despite seeing a boost in usage without SGA, Dort is still averaging below a fantasy point per minute in this situation. Additionally, he’s not guaranteed to play huge minutes either as the OKC rotation has been somewhat fluid this season. With a number of similarly projected players in his price range and high ownership, this is a spot you can look to get different at in DFS lineups.
NBA DFS final thoughts
Three OKC players in a balanced build is going to be a popular construction tonight. Virtually all of the spend up options are going to come in under-owned. This is a huge leverage spot tonight in that people will likely be fading some of the highest upside plays on the slate due to the amount of mid-range value. With 13 games being played do not feel obligated to eat all the chalk. Good luck tonight!
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