Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Trent Forrest is priced under $4k on both DK and FD tonight and projected to play 28 minutes. However, both Trae Young and Clint Capela were downgraded this afternoon and there’s a strong chance they rest. Trent Forrest is already going to be a popular play, but if we get Trae and/or Capela ruled out before lock, he might be the highest owned player on the slate.
- Deni Avdija has played over 35 minutes in each of the past 3 games. Additionally, he’s increased his FPPM rate which has resulted in 3 straight games of at least 30 Draftkings points. We can continue to ride the value train while Beal is out.
- De’Andre Hunter is another popular Hawks value play, especially since Bogdan is out tonight. However, Hunter is the most expensive of the value group on FD and about the same as AJ Griffin on DK. The main issue here is that despite the circumstance, Hunter’s median projection is still lower than a multitude of similarly priced players.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Trent Forrest
De’Andre Hunter
Deni Avdija
Brandon Clarke
Kyle Anderson
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Kemba Walker, Malcolm Brogdon, Tyrese Haliburton
SG: D’Angelo Russell, Seth Curry, Tyler Herro
SF: Joe Harris, AJ Griffin (if projected to be lower owned than Hunter), Jaylen Brown
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr., Jayson Tatum, Aleksej Pokusevski
C: Myles Turner, Kristaps Porzingis, Rudy Gobert
Popular DFS Play: Trent Forrest
Price: $3,100/$3,800
Own%: 41.82%/45.19%
DFS Value Play: Deni Avdija
Price: $4,900/$5,500
5x%: 54.20%/43.60%
Player to avoid in DFS: De’Andre Hunter
Price: $4,600/$5,300
LevX: -29.21/ -26.09
NBA DFS final thoughts
Tonight is an interesting DFS slate. We are likely going to get very popular value plays from the Hawks, however this is their third game in four nights. Additionally, they played an overtime game last night which could lead to tired legs tonight. Thankfully none of them grade out as tremendous value plays and there are several viable pivots you can make in your lineups. Once again their will be fairly modest ownership on the expensive players, so this is another area where you can get different in your roster. Good luck tonight!
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