Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Jaden Hardy, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Drew Eubanks, and Derrick Jones Jr. Notably, DAL will be without Luka, Kyrie, Dante Exum, and three others leading to massive ownership on the remaining players.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 3 value players complemented by 3 mid-range players and 2 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrating on Jokic, Durant, Booker, and Embiid. Based on this, spending up for either Trae Young or De’Aaron Fox looks like a strong move in GPPs.
- Players such as Jalen Green, Nic Claxton, and Tari Eason* are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, value plays such as Trayce Jackson-Davis, Dennis Smith Jr., and Josh Richardson look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Derrick Jones Jr.
Jaden Hardy
Drew Eubanks
Kevin Durant
Nikola Jokic
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (Value)
Josh Richardson (Value)
Daniel Gafford (Midrange)
Trae Young (Stud)
De’Aaron Fox (Stud)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be stars and scrubs with 4 Mavs along with Durant and Jokic. Thankfully, this makes it easy to get different on the slate. The popular value plays are more fragile than ownership suggests and are a viable place to pivot. Additionally, there are several pivot options available in the midrange. Furthermore, you can pay play some of the lower owned spend ups such as Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, and to a lesser extent Joel Embiid. The Paydirt models are heavy on DAL/PHI/GSW as spots to target with secondary exposure to PHX/ATL. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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