Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular players on the slate, popular roster construction, and potential pivots and leverage spots. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points
- The highest-owned players for tonight’s games are projected to be Day’Ron Sharpe, Dennis Smith Jr., Trendon Watford, Tobias Harris, and Kelly Oubre Jr. Notably, the Nets are extremely short-handed and will be a source of value with many people rostering at least 3. Additionally, Embiid is out again tonight leading to increased ownership on Sixers.
- A popular roster construction tonight will likely include 3 value players complemented by 2 mid-range players and 3 stars. Ownership on the high end is concentrating on Luka Doncic, however, Giannis is questionable and Shai Glizzy is the only other player above $10k. Based on this, Shai is a great pivot at the high end but you’re going to likely be looking to pivot at the next tier down.
- Players such as Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker, and Julius Randle are intriguing GPP plays. Additionally, midrange plays such as Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Brook Lopez look like potential pivot opportunities.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA DFS Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Dennis Smith Jr.
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Tobias Harris
Trendon Watford
Day’Ron Sharpe
NBA DFS GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
Brook Lopez (Midrange)
Dennis Schroder (Midrange)
Daniel Gafford (Midrange)
Devin Booker (Stud)
Shai Glizzy (Premium)
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
The popular build tonight is going to be stars and scrubs with 3 Nets along with Sixers and Raptors. The popular midrange plays are more fragile than ownership suggests and are a viable place to pivot. However, from a projection standpoint there really are no comparable pivots to the value chalk. Therefore, you can either eat the chalk or you can pivot with an understanding that the median is going to be lower. Furthermore, you can pay play some of the lower owned spend ups such as Shai Glizzy, Devin Booker and Alperen Sengun. The Paydirt models are heavy on BKN/PHI/TOR as spots to target with secondary exposure to MIL/NYK. Good luck and let’s bake some bread!
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