Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
And then there were 8! We made it to the Divisional Round and we have a couple great matchups and a couple that can possibly dud. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if all four of these environments can produce lower scoring games. Let’s get into it.
- BUF/DEN
- Josh Allen visit Mile High here and what a treat that we get this matchup here as the first game of the weekend. This game I believe has the widest range of outcomes on the weekend as both teams are equipped to stop what the other team does well. What wins out?
- Let’s start with the Bills side here, first on defense. They’ve greatly increased thier man coverage rates the last 8 weeks and the leave the middle of the field open. They want to pin receivers outside the hashes and try to get after you a bit. It’s not often you see that, but this is a heavy Cover 2 Man scheme. They give up a TON of slot targets naturally because of their scheme and they’re bottom five against the run. They’re also bottom 5 in explosive runs allowed and sport the worst zone run scheme efficiency defense in the league. Denver when they deploy zone run schemes (about 30% of the time), they’re top 5 in efficiency.
- On offense, you know it’s just Josh Allen, James Cook, Kincaid and then whatever practice squad receiver they decide to go with. Denver plays a ton of man-to-man and they live in Cover 1 shells, keep the middle of the field closed off, and sell out to disrupt the QB.
- For the Broncos here, as discussed above, they sport a super high volume of Cover 1 Man and they close the middle of the field. They are the #1 ranked defense in blitz-to-sack efficiency and they essentially dare you to beat their coverage guys 1-on-1 while under pressure. They get targeted in the slot at a fairly high rate but it’s a lot of targets at the LOS. When they’re targeted out wide it’s usually on deep shots. Been elite against the run all year and are top 3 in explosive runs allowed.
- On offense, Denver is a heavy man-gap running team which makes me curious if they’ll deploy a more zone gap scheme here. They use it but nowhere near as much as man-gap. Buffalo’s Cover 2 man is disguised heavily as they split their safeties presnap and either leave it as is or drop one back post-snap. They like Denver, try to get after the QB (51% of dropbacks they send an extra blitzer). Buffalo always keeps a light box and their defense is designed to cap big explosive plays.
- For me, this game comes down to three things – Can the Buffalo receivers separate? Can Denver effectively run the ball as they’ve been a pretty inefficient running team? Finally, how can Allen/Nix handle the pressure?
- I think Denver has a very big advantage on the ground here if they decide to go more zone-scheme heavy. The Bills are getting Ed Oliver back which is a huge boost to this run D. I’m very concerned about the Bills receivers separating from sticky coverage here and that’s a pretty big edge here. Also, and James will hate that I’m writing this but…. Bo Nix has been the 2nd highest efficient QB vs pressure this season (6.7 YPA) and the Bills blitz more than anyone in football. Denver is not an offense that wants to chuck the ball down the field. This actually plays into what they want to do with Nix.
- Josh Allen, in my opinion, is the best player in football. When you have him, you have a fighting chance always. But, these receivers haven’t been able to separate against man coverage. Josh Allen also has allowed a 7.9% sack-rate when pressured and only completed 37.5% of his passes against man coverage this season. Can Josh Allen be superman and win this game? Yes. But if he can’t scramble and make this Denver defense play extended possessions for his receivers to get open, Denver will get home more often than not.
- Leverage points: In my opinion, you need to play some Bills and Broncos stacks here. Going Allen/Cook/+1 is fine as is going Nix/Sutton/+1. In large field contests, I LOVE the idea of getting funky and fading the bigger names for people like Cooks, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, Marvin Mims. I think the best fade candidate here is RJ Harvey. You’d be making a bet on Denver adjusting their running game which has been a consistent 70/30 split between man-gap and zone runs all year. If that was flipped? I’d consider locking RJ Harvey. Ed Oliver back makes them much more tough to run on. I wouldn’t play any of these cheap BUF pieces like Curtis Samuel, Cooks, or Hardman without Josh Allen. If they get there it’s probably because Allen is having some real success. Think Keon Coleman is live for a deep ball here, just takes one broken coverage play for him to pay off a $3,500 tag. Denver D has an extreme advantage on paper but it is Josh Allen.
- *UPDATE* – it’s been reported that Ed Oliver will be play a select number of snaps. That could be a lie but with how much time he’s missed, I lean towards him having a stricter snap count. Bumps up my interest in RJ Harvey a “bit” more but more importantly, it just makes me believe that Denver can have an easier time setting up their play action game here.
- SEA/SF
- This is a realllllllllly weird game in my opinion to try and break down because this a third meeting between both of these teams and they’re coming in with important injuries that can derail how they’ve approached this matchup in the past. The first meeting between these two was a low scoring 17-13 game won by SF on the road and the second meeting was a 13-3 game won by SEA on the road. The difference here? Kittle is out, Darnold is legitimately banged up and if he plays, won’t be playing at 100%, and the 49ers are still decimated on the defensive side of the ball.
- Starting with SF first, on defense, they play one of the heaviest rates of zone in the league, primarily in Cover 3, 1, and 2. VERY low pressure rates and play more of a soft bend but don’t break defense. They rely on a 4-man rush and close the middle of the field at a 55% rate. They want to keep everything in front of them. They’re 31st in pressure rate and they try to take away the intermediate middle of the field throws. They tend to get beat on deep balls and overall give up a lot of receptions to running backs. If it’s within 5 yards or more than 15 yards, they get beat pretty easily.
- On offense, they do a very good job at avoiding sacks and they are ELITE at busting zone coverage (3rd in the league at 6.5 yards per play against zone) and Purdy is very good at layering throws against zone with a 75.1% completion rate. Seattle is top in the league against WRs but they sit in a zone 71% of the time and sit in a Cover 2 zone 31% of the time. What makes Seattle elite is that they’re so good at stopping the run and getting pressure WITHOUT blitzing. If they can’t get home, Purdy can have a lot of success here.
- For SEA, they deploy a 51% middle field open look predominant in Cover 2 and Cover 3. They’ll go to some man-to-man on third downs and goal line possessions but they really want to use their base 4 to get home and play sticky zone coverage. They keep a light box but are elite at filling the gaps because their DL is usually faster than their opponent. They’re #1 in DVOA against BOTH RB rushing attempts and WR routes. Their defense can fall apart if they can’t get base pressure and it’s out of character for them to increase their blitz rate.
- On offense, they’re a SUPER play-action heavy team. They want to keep Darnold in the pocket as much as possible. When he rolls out of the pocket, it’s usually by design. They’re a run heavy unit who similarly likes to play through their running backs like PIT does. Not as heavy of target rates but if not’s a look to JSN, Darnold’s second look is to the RBs or the TE spot. The 49ers have had a terrible time defending the run and deep balls. If you think Darnold’s healthy, this could be a spot where they get whatever they want against this defense. He is the best deep ball thrower in the league left in the playoffs (53% completion rate on 20+ yard throws) and if SF sits in their cover 3 zone and can’t get pressure, Seattle’s vertical passing game can have a field day.
- Leverage points: Darnold’s injury situation and this spot in general have me worried about the upside of this offense but if Drew Lock plays, I don’t know how you don’t roster a bunch of Lock/JSN stacks. I think this is a game where I probably want to be more under on full-on stacks. Seattle’s offense can get what they want but a third time seeing this divisional opponent doesn’t inspire confidence. They also both like to play pretty slow and take possession of the ball. I think CMC is hard to fade given his pass catching floor here but I think the real edge is in Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet here. They will both see some pass game work and if Darnold is hobbled, I expect them fully to just try to jam it down SF’s throat (pause). Week 18, with Darnold healthy, these RBs accounted for FORTY-ONE touches. I think you can play both of these guys together too. I’m off Purdy stacks but think a one-off receiver is fine.
- HOU/NE
- This game is just gross on paper. Two offenses that don’t mind playing slow and both offenses seem to be in spots where they may have some challenges finding points. I do think one side of this game provides some good large field pivots but it’s not pretty.
- Starting with NE’s defense, they deploy zone at a 68% rate with a pretty even split between Cover 3 and Cover 2. They run a bit of Cover 1 but they’ll deploy Cover 1 when they feel like they can get after you and that they have an advantage over your receivers. They’re entirely a matchup-based defense in that respect. They close the middle of the field but are ELITE at limiting deep balls (31.6% completion rate on throws of 20+ yards or more, good for best in the league) but their run defense has fallen off a cliff. They have been an elite matchup for WR1s and that looks like it’ll be Higgins this week with Nico Collins out. Their defense tendencies leave the flats and the hitches open. With Nico out, I fully expect the Texans to try and exploit that.
- On offense, the Patriots are a rhythm offense who try to establish the run and hit check-downs early to their RBs to then open it up a bit once they find success. When they’re rolling, it’s play action heavy. This is probably the worst matchup the Pats could hope for what they do well.
- With HOU’s defense, they tend to stay in a HEAVY nickel package defense. They get pressure at a middle of the pack rate and blitz less than anyone in football. They’re designed to take away your easiest tendencies and make you beat them in ways that are out of your comfort zone. They’re a zone heavy team who mostly sit in Cover 1, 2, and 3 with a heavier lean on single-high looks. They close the middle of the field often but when they do go to a 2-high safety look, they’re the best in football. They’re top 3 in efficiency in both single-high and 2-high. Pretty fucking scary tbh. They don’t do anything fancy, they just play shell defense and try to take away your first look.
- On offense, the Texans are a simple team that likes to HB dive over and over again until they can set up play action. They run a poor-man’s version of Seattle’s offense and the combination of missing Nico Collins and how elite the Pats have been against limiting deep balls, I think there’s cause for concern for upside from the passing game. However, even though HOU is a mediocre unit, they can easily exploit the holes in NE’s defense because they’ll give up short throws. The Texans are full of small, quick shifty receivers. I’m expecting a lot of short throws and then hopefully they make NE miss tackles. I think Woody Marks here will have more of a pass catching role just playing into what NE gives up.
- Leverage points: I think this is a horrendous matchup for New England on offense. HOU is elite at taking away your number one options and they’ve proven that they’re elite at taking away the flats and run game. NE relies on that to get momentum. They’ve shut down CMC, they’ve shut down PIT’s RBs in the passing game, and I’m concerned that NE won’t be able to find success there. Young QB in Maye who’s played a cupcake schedule, I think this NE offense is an avoid for me here for full stacks. I might take a flyer on a RB or Henry hoping for a RZ score but the rest are too expensive for this spot. I’m not stoked to play HOU’s offense either but I do think there’s some GPP pivots in these secondary receivers in Noel, Kirk, Hutchinson. Higgins is in play too if you do think he steps into Nico’s role, just too cheap. But I will be playing a lot of HOU’s defense. I think they win the game outright and force Maye into mistakes. Gross, but I’ll have some Skid Marks.
- CHI/LAR
- This is by far my favorite game of the four and I know weather is a big concern for the weather watchers out there, but I think this game provides a lot of upside and pivots.
- First from the Rams side, their defense is very good at getting base pressure without a high blitz rate (11th in pressure rate, 24th in blitz rate). They’re effective when they can confuse protection schemes through stunting and keeping 7 defenders in coverage. They’re top 10 in zone rate at 73% and predominantly sit in Cover 3/2 shells. They tend to mix up closing up and keeping the middle of the field open. They lead in the NFL in dime personnell, meaning, they prefer to have 6 DBs on the field with more speed. They want to limit explosive plays and force you to take intermediate/short throws to get down the field.
- On offense, we know what they love to do. Feed Puka anywhere they can, use Adams in the red zone and go routes, and use Kyren/Corum in duo run schemes. They want to get north-south on your and try to double team defenders who can plug the gaps. They have the #1 run blocking offense and this is a pretty big mismatch for them against Chicago’s run D. They’ll see a TON of man coverage here, but Stafford has been much better against zone. When you have Puka and Adams, does that matter? Probably not.
- From the Bears side, their defense is man-heavy and predominantly try to close off the middle of the field. They stunt at a high rate like the Rams but the difference is, they do it in a man-heavy scheme and try to use their DL to disrupt your protection rather then put a lot of speed on the field. They sit in Cover 1 29% of the time, Cover 2 26%, and Cover 3 23.5% of the time. They sit in Cover 2 on early downs and then get after you with aggressive man on 3rd and goal line downs. They’ve been elite at causing turnovers in the red zone and their high stunt rate forces offensive lines to process lateral movement quickly. They let their DBs play physical, sticky coverage.
- On offense, the Bears have been elite at beating man heavy schemes but have been middle of the pack against heavy shell coverages. Caleb Williams is the #2 QB in yards per dropback against man but drops to 17th against zone shells. They try to use their RBs to establish some rhythm and then ultimately, they abandon everything and start taking shots down the field because they’re usually trailing in games. The Rams have been very good at limiting the run game but do give up some explosive plays from time to time. Ultimately, this Rams D is designed structurally to take away what Caleb does well. But they’re not that good. And I think Burden/Loveland will find soft spots all game. But can Caleb find them? They’ll try to take away the intermediate throws and won’t give him many man looks.
- Leverage points: I think this game has a wide range of outcomes but predominantly, it’s on the Rams side. I firmly believe they can get whatever they want whenever they want. And this is valuable from a DFS perspective because you can fade Puka here comfortably in the right lineups and leverage it with other pieces of LAR. I think Stafford +3 here (including one of Kyren/Corum) is very sharp. You can play TE roulette here with all 4 TE healthy and take a Puka fade for Adams. Or, play Puka with the lowest owned TEs for a Rams overstack. They’re just a sick GPP multi-entry team & Kyren’s a sick play imo. Bears side I think is viable to stack too. I have a hard time believing the Rams don’t score points here, and these price tags on CHI are so enticing. My preferred way to go is Caleb/Loveland/with one of Burden/Moore. Odunze is fine too but I put him behind those guys. Swift and Monangai can definitely be viable here too, just lots of ways to go.
For my stacks this week, I’m going to list them in order. You should play the slates where you feel like you have the most edge, so this is how I rank them. Please remember, this is for DFS purposes and scoring, I am not suggesting who win games –
- LAR/CHI (1A/1B for me)
- DEN
- BUF
- HOU
- SEA
- SF
- NE
BOL! – Jason O