Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- CHI and WAS are allowing the most fantasy points per minute to opponents at a rate of 1.09 FPPM
- The Pistons and Knicks are allowing the fewest FPPM on the slate and are playing each other – 90’s era throwback.
- IND and PHI also present good matchups for their opponents and both teams are going to be shorthanded tonight.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- WAS/IND is the top matchup on the slate and it’s reflected in early ownership projections. However, most of the ownership is going to the IND side.
- PHI/ATL is another strong game environment with lopsided ownership on the Philly side. Jalen Johnson looks like a strong spend up option.
- CHI/TOR is going largely overlooked despite the models showing it as the 2nd best combined game environment on the slate. Both teams should be back to relative full strength so you can narrow your focus to the high usage plays.
Trending Players
IND and WAS are going to be clear sources of value tonight and the options are fairly strong in terms of ceiling value. This is likely going to lead to many lineups in the field rostering 2-3 of these value plays. It’s worth noting that very few PHI players show up as high ceiling values indicating the fade or underweight approach could be fruitful.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Jalen Johnson stands out as the clear top spend-up option tonight.
- Pacers galore, but in GPPs you can consider the lower owned options to still get exposure without being too chalky.
- Your core tonight is going to be a mix of IND/PHI value guys + Jalen Johnson
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
