NFL DFS 2023 Week 4 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

• Highest team total on the slate is SF at 28.75 with BUF not far behind at 28 while the lowest is ARI at 14.75
• Highest pass TD projection is LAC at 2.41 followed closely by BUF at 2.40, highest rush TD total is PHI at 1.40 with SF at 1.35
• Highest dropback projection is BUF at 45.11, highest rush attempt projections are PHI and SF at about 30.50

There are a lot of heavy favorites, which should spell out a lot of spots for rushing TD upside that people are not paying enough attention to. PHI for instance is in a terrific spot and Swift is getting very little ownership. There’s also probably not enough ownership on SF considering their massive team total. CMC is getting appropriate ownership but not the passing attack, so stacks there make a lot of sense.

Highest projected ownership

• Kyren Williams has arguably the best role in the league for running backs, his chalk is warranted.
• Why the fuck are people playing Pat freiermuth?
• Significant ownership on both Palmer and Keenan Allen gives a lot of upside for Quentin Johnston and Gerald Everett for GPPs.

Overall a lot of this chalk makes sense, I don’t have any issue with the RBs here and a lot of the WR chalk comes from either high volume or an opening in targetshare. Tank Dell is probably the only WR that seems like bad chalk overall and that’s just because he’s being chased, but his price is probably close to efficient at this point. The one thing I truly can’t figure out is the Freiermuth chalk. It’s fucking weird. Why do people do this. Lol

Anyway, we should expect a lot of two TE builds this week to fit the CMC chalk, but I am fine with that so long as you aren’t playing Freiermuth.

Overall slate notes

• I’m very invested in BUF stacks overall and think I’ll have an SF lean as well. While I don’t think it’s a crazy take at all, I just don’t think enough people are paying attention to the best spots today and it can be pretty cut and dry.
• As far as RBs go, we actually have a wide open slate here. Kyren Williams is very strong chalk, but outside of him we have a very strong $5-$6k range of RBs to pick from. Don’t feel like you have to be pigeonholed into any individual pairing.
• Another quick note on the BUF/MIA game, I’m likely to get a little weird with it. Stefon Diggs is my prio there, not Tyreek Hill, so if I end up with Waddle I will be fine with that.
• Jakobi Meyers is a god damn stud and is about $2k underpriced. I might have 100% of him today.
• For cash games, I’m not sure you do anything but Aidan O’Connell. You don’t get min price QBs very often and he opens up every other position. Just lock him, CMC, and Keenan Allen in and go from there.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Aidan O’Connell
RB – Kyren Williams
RB – Christian McCaffrey
WR – Keenan Allen
WR – Puka Nacua
TE – Pat Freiermuth
DST – Ravens

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Josh Allen, Aidan O’Connell, Matthew Stafford
RB – Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Joshua Kelley, Rachaad White
WR – Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Stefon Diggs, Quentin Johnston
TE – Zach Ertz, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Gerald Everett
DST – Whoever you want

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