Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Dustin May is the top True AVG pitcher on the mound tonight, followed closely by Sandoval. Solid projections and cheap price tags puts both of them firmly in play.
- The next tier in consideration includes Bryce Miller, Jacob Lopez, Trevor Rogers, and something called a Rhett Lowder. Bryce Miller is the most expensive pitcher on the slate as well as the highest projected owned. But he also has the highest projection so he will be one of the key decision points on the slate. The other 3 guys in this range don’t project particularly well but are all cheap.
- Arrighetti has been fighting off regression for a few starts now but the bill always comes due. He has the worst True AVG on the slate. Sasaki and Marquez round out the bottom three on SPs on the slate. ChiSox, Mets, and Marlins all in GPP consideration.
Macro Team Stats
- Dodgers and Padres are the two standout teams in regards to 8+. LAD has the highest top score% and SDP is tied for the 2nd highest.
- Mariners, Twins, and A’s are the next group of teams to consider for full stacks based on the scoring percentages. Just be mindful that the Twins currently project to be the chalk.
- TOR, BAL, and BOS are the bottom three teams with an 8+ less than 10%. All three can be avoided in SE and limited entries.
Trending Teams
The Dodgers, ChiSox, and Padres are the top trending teams and all have decent trending matchups as well. This puts the Dodgers and Padres as both top trending and top scoring percentage. The Whitesox on the other hand, get a matchup vs the worst True AVG pitcher on the slate. HOU and ATL would be the other two teams trending modestly well. STL, NYM, and TOR are the bottom trending teams tonight. The Mets at least get a plus matchup vs Sasaki, but there’s not much to love about STL or TOR.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models like a pay down strategy at SP with a May/Sandoval combo
- While not shown in the screenshot, Miller and McClanahan also have exposure rates above 20% and are the preferred spend up options.
- The clear priority stack is the Marlins. Period.
- Your secondary stack is likely going to depend on where you go with pitching. MIA + cheap SP combo allows you fit high priced bats such as Dodgers or ChiSox studs. While a high/low SP combo likely leads you to a mid-priced stack such as the Padres.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
