NFL DFS 2023 Week 5 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

• Highest team total on the slate is MIA at 30, lowest is PIT at 16.50, while the best game total is 52.50 for KC/MIN
• Highest pass TD expectation is 2.40 for KC while the highest rushing TD expectation is 1.74 for PHI
• Largest dropback projection goes to KC at 45.10 followed by LAR at 44.74 while the largest rushing attempt projections go to DET at 30.89

There are a bunch of really strong game environments on this slate, including a shootout spot for KC/MIN as well as a really strong total for LAR/PHI at 50.25. The KC/MIN game feels safer in terms of the passing potential but is less condensed overall, while the LAR/PHI game has an easier to decipher target tree but doesn’t feel as safe in terms of passing upside.

Everyone is going to be all over David Montgomery chalk today with DET a strong favorite and their rushing projection nice and high. Other spots that have good rushing projections and upside: PHI (D’Andre Swift undervalued), MIA (Mostert >>> Achane), and TEN (Derrick Henry underowned).

Highest projected ownership

• David Montgomery might end up 40% owned, and that’s fine, but if he hits 50% owned we will be in a good fade territory even with strong medians
• De’Von Achane is really bad chalk as an RB2 at 25% owned, especially if Mostert is going to be less than 10% owned
• I do not understand what is skyrocketing the Titans DST but I would not feel inclined to play them

We are going to see a lot of DET chalk today because of Amon-Ra St.Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs being inactive, and while the medians make sense for it, it seems like a let down spot. There are competent pieces of this Lions team but without those two players they lose a lot of their explosiveness. While I still think David Montgomery is a strong option overall, I would be fine getting away from all the passing game options outside of stacks. Speaking of the passing game though, I think stacks of this game will be way, way undervalued with the Montgomery chalk. Going with a Goff/Laporta/Raymond stack fucks pretty hard here.

Outside of the DET chalk, a lot of these pieces make sense. While Achane is bad chalk, I understand why people are on him. What I think we end up seeing is a lot of focus on the midrange plays while people fall away from the cheap options like Wan’Dale Robinson. Expect to see a lot of single stud builds around the big name WRs in the high total games and less “jame them in” type stuff.

Overall slate notes

• I mentioned it on stream, but I think that MIN stacks are my main focus followed by CIN stacks and then a forbidden Daniel Jones stack.
• In regards to stacking as a whole, I’m interested in overstacking MIN/KC and going with significant exposure there to capture the full upside with a QB+2+2.
• Don’t play De’Von Achane, and if you play Wan’Dale Robinson it should only be as a stack with Daniel Jones.
• The more I think about it the more I think a DET stack makes a lot of sense if you have 5-10 lineups and one to burn for some significant leverage.
• Another note on that game: Miles Sanders is an elite, elite GPP play in that spot that neutralizes the David Montgomery chalk based on gamescript and can pair well with Kalif Raymond of Sam Laporta as a mini stack.
• For cash games, it’s relatively open for a couple spots. Most week we have 4-5 players that are locked in based on ownership but this week we only have 3 (Montgomery, Chase, Laporta).

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Jalen Hurts
RB – David Montgomery
RB – De’Von Achane
WR – Ja’Marr Chase
WR – Wan’Dale Robinson
TE – Sam Laporta
DST – Titans

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins
RB – David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert
WR – Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, George Pickens, Adam Thielen Darius Slayton
TE – Irv Smith Jr., Hayden Hurst, Darren Waller, Sam Laporta
DST – Whoever you want

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