Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NFL DFS main slate breakdown:
Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections
- The highest team total on the slate is ARI at 26.75 while the lowest is NE at 14.75.
- The highest expected pass TDs goes to HOU, CIN, and KC at 1.72, 1.65, and 1.60.
- The highest expected rush TDs goes to SF at 1.27 with no other team above 1.11.
- The highest game total is WAS/ARI at 49.50 with the second highest being CIN/CAR at 47.50.
Here are the top 10 overall stacks in median projection:
There are a couple of HOU stacks here as well as a couple of KC stacks with a mix of others. The ones that stand out here are HOU and ARI towards the top with significant ownership as well as MIN and TB who show up with barely any ownership. From a glance, HOU is by far the top dog in terms of median and ceiling expectations while WAS is the king of value.
Sorting by team total:
This spread is honestly a bit less interesting than we have had in weeks past. In most of the content we have put out this week we have talked about three games: HOU/JAX, ARI/WAS, and CIN/CAR and outside of CAR/JAX we have representation there. Not a surprise to see SF/KC with high team totals, though the ownership on SF outside of Mason is likely to be relatively low. I think the only team that is up here that I look at as interesting is NYJ and I don’t think they are really predictable enough to compete with the skinnier targets trees in this list.
Based on all the macro stuff it’s pretty straight forward this week. I like HOU and WAS as top priorities and ARI/CIN as secondary options. I could see myself with a KC stack in certain scenarios but it’s unlikely in my top 3 lineups.
Highest projected ownership
Note: This is being written on Saturday afternoon, I’ll update the image/thoughts in the morning if we have significant movement.
- Mason was 50% owned last week, so it’s pretty weird to see him at 23% owned this week in a better matchup with only a small rise in salary.
- There are three ARI players in the top of the ownership here and I’m willing to bet the backup TE for ARI who I don’t remember the name of ends up 15%+ owned as well.
- I expect Najee Harris to be 20%+ along with Tre Tucker finding his way into the 15%+ range.
Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Dallas Goedert are getting heavier ownership over on FD over the likes of Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch. Take note of that.
People are all drooling over the ARI/WAS game as well as HOU stacks. I think we could see 4-6 players from those three teams in the 20%+ range of ownership, which is a huge chunk of the field. Granted, I think those games are really solid targets, but you need to target it in a way that lets you pass the field. If you are playing Collins or Diggs, you should be doing so in a stack with Stroud. If you are playing Kyler Murray you should probably be pairing him with Marvin Harrison Jr. who will be 10% owned for some reason. Pair Jayden Daniels with Terry McLaurin. Just make sure that you are taking strong spots and going one step further than the field.
The main guys I hate in this list are Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson. I think neither of them are especially value on this slate and aren’t even really in that terrific of spots from a real life standpoint.
Diontae Johnson is popular because of a really, really strong performance last week with Dalton in over Young, but a one week sample can lead to anything and shouldn’t be used as gospel. For instance, last year Diontae had a game with 23% of the targets and 34% of the air yards as well as a touchdown and only put up 16.2 PPR points. that’s well within the range of outcomes on a bad Panthers team and people are treating him as though he is bulletproof. I think I much prefer Rashid Shaheed, a WR who had a similar ownership circumstance last week but is only 2% owned this week, as a direct pivot in price and projection.
Najee Harris is getting steamed because his direct backup, Jaylen Warren, is going to be out. But last week after Warren left the game, it wasn’t Harris that picked up the extra work. Cordarrelle Patterson went from 7% of the snaps and routes to 37% and became the direct backup. If you didn’t want to play Najee in weeks 1-3 because he sucks at football, you should keep that energy baby. He still sucks and he isn’t getting a workload boost.
Undervalued options
Running Backs: Alvin Kamara, Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor
- From an aggregate projections standpoint Kamara has the second best usage and expectation in the league behind just Saquon Barkley and has an agg projection of 20.03. He is basically Breece Hall on a better offense. He’s only going to be 10% owned and deserves to be split with the highest owned stud RB on the slate, but won’t be.
- People are clamoring for the CIN/CAR spot by grabbing a bunch of shares of Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo, but what if Carolina sucks again? CIN is in a terrific spot to grab a lead and tee off on a defense allowing 27.5 PPR points to opposing RBs and 3.9 more opportunities above average. Moss is looking like he will settle into a 12-15% owned range which is too low for his price and the offensive environment.
- Jonathan Taylor doesn’t have quite the same usage or expectation as the elite guys, but his baselines are akin to that of Bijan Robinson and Kyren Williams from a utilization and aggregate proj standpoint. He projects for just 1% owned and we have seen him nuke the slate in hard matchups before. I think he’s reserved for large fields but 1% owned is way too low for him, and I think he makes a lot of sense as a Breece Hall pivot.
I don’t think that any of these guys really deserve ownership as low as we are seeing, and find that if you are playing larger fields or have an exceptionally chalky lineup all of them are easy to access in general build paths.
Wide Receivers: Justin Jefferson, Rashid Shaheed, Mike Evans
- Justin Jefferson is only going to be 3% owned okay you should play him just on principle. That is too low for the best WR in the league. He’s expensive as dick but, ya know, it’s good dick. idk man just play him if you can fit it.
- If you are wondering if me saying “fit it” was extending the dick joke, trust your instincts.
- Haha. Extending the dick.
- Anyway…
- Last week, Rashid Shaheed was 25% owned and posted a 26% targetshare with 51% of the air yards and an aDOT of 21.8. Most weeks, he would be 15-20% owned again, but because only 20% of his targets were catchable and he ended up with 0 fantasy points, he will be 2% owned. This is a clear bounce back spot for him and I’m willing to go right back to the well. It’s icing on the cake that he is a perfect pivot off of Diontae Johnson at 20% ownership.
- There’s just no reason that Chris Godwin should be projected at 10% ownership while Evans is down at 1%. Yes, Godwin has had better outcomes and is more consistent, but his range of outcomes is way skinnier and he lacks the upside to nuke the slate. Evans with his aDOT of 11.4 and demand of the endzone targets has real 30+ PPR point upside and is in a matchup with the defense that allowed the second most PPR points to WRs in 2023. He’s a strong play in all formats.
Here are a handful of guys that the Contest Sims find as being well underowned:
Usage and expected fantasy points
Below is the usage and expected value chart sorted by Agg Projection, the value of the players based on their seasonal expected fantasy points per game as well as Utilization expectation and median projection:
- People are mostly playing the guys on this list, which gives us plenty of reason to eat chalk where we can, but there are plenty of guys who should be much higher owned.
- For instance, there’s no reason why Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall in the top pricing tier should be higher owned than Barkley.
- Likewise where is no reason there should be twice as much ownership on Jordan Mason over Aaron Jones.
- The biggest red thumb here IMO is Jonathan Taylor who is getting disrespectful ownership at 1% while putting up usage and expectations similar to Bijan Robinson.
Let’s sort that table by projected ownership now:
Guys like Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are really hard to judge here. They should both see some sort of increase in workload but how much? And should we really be looking to play both of them? Probably not much and probably not. Now I do think that one of them is likely to “get there” and put up 15+ fantasy points, but it’s a coin flip on which one. Because of that I think it’s important to be smart about how you use them in lineups and I prefer them in stacks.
Outside of them we have a lot of strong projections and aggregations here so I don’t have very many issues with the chalk. It’s also pretty spread out unlike the last two weeks. The only things that I would say are to be wary of Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris who I think both end up higher owned than what we see here. I don’t really like playing either at their current ownership and if they are 25%+ I want nothing to do with them.
Overall slate notes
- Primary stacks here are HOU/WAS with secondary stacks looking like ARI/CIN/PHI
- I didn’t talk about PHI above, but I’m very intrigued by Hurts/Saquon pairings to capture all the offense on a team with very few weapons.
- I think doing that with a Godwin or Evans bring back makes for a really unique base for a lineup where you can just eat all the chalk elsewhere.
- I think that people are going to look back at this slate and say “Why did we not play Marvin Harrison Jr. at 15% owned? That was so dumb we tried way too hard”. He is such an easy play in this spot and I think the field is just missing it for some reason.
- I don’t really want anything to do with Diontae Johnson or Najee Harris, I think there are too many spots with similar expectations and less ownership to eat chalk there. If you do want to play Diontae, pair him with Andy Dalton in a cheap stack base.
- One of Michael Wilson or Greg Dortch is going to win people GPPs but I don’t know who that will be and neither do you.
- The Aaron Jones in Lambeau narrative is very juicy and I do think that he should be a priority if you end up in that range. They are going to feed him so he can get a Lambeau leap into his home fans.
- That said, Jordan Mason is just way too cheap still and I think he still deserves like 40% ownership, so I want to try to force him in as well.
- Basically, there are a bunch of really good plays and you shouldn’t feel compelled to lock yourself into anyone. Be flexible this week with so many strong options available at RB/WR.
- TE feels especially hopeless this week, so if you can find a stack where you can lock in some correlation there instead of relying on projections, that should be your default.
For more info on this slate from other Paydirt contributors and community members, go read through the other articles here and watch the third episode of The Bakery featuring Pablo & Jason.
“Theory Crafting” Slate talk
A community slate breakdown that took place in the Paydirt Discord between James McCool, Pablo, and Jason O. Every important aspect of the slate was touched on with game theory and GPP aspects in mind:
NFL DFS Cash Game Core:
(Finalized after 12pm EST)
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.
QB – Jayden Daniels
RB – Jordan Mason
RB – Najee Harris
WR – Diontae Johnson
WR – Nico Collins
FLEX – Michael Wilson
DST – 49ers DST
NFL DFS GPP Core:
(Finalized after 10am EST)
This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.
QB – Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields
RB – Zack Moss, Jordan Mason, Brian Robinson Jr., Aaron Jones
WR – Nico Collins, Marvin Harrison Jr., Terry McLaurin, Rashid Shaheed
TE – Correlate with your QB
DST – Whoever you want
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