NFL DFS Showdown SZN 2023: Saints vs. Jaguars

Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.

Main Points:

• Alvin Kamara is an elite option and should be locked into your FLEX in all builds while you should completely avoid Derek Carr.
• The Jags side of things have a considerably higher floor and ceiling, so running either 4-2 or 5-1 builds with them is the optimal path.
• Overall, you don’t have to worry much about dupes tonight, just build well and avoid Derek Carr and have a joy old time.

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Captain ownership distributions

The best positive edge on the slate at captain belongs to Christian Kirk. He has an exposure in winning lineups of 25% and a projected ownership there of 10%, giving him a 15% edge over the field. Kirk should benefit from no Zay Jones and is an elite option in this offense. On the other hand, the largest negative edge at captain is Derek Carr at -19%. Carr isn’t a volume passer and with Jamaal Williams back he loses even more touchdown equity as NO will be happy to run.

FLEX ownership distributions

The largest positive edge in the FLEX is Alvin Kamara. His projected ownership in the FLEX is just 45.50%, while his exposure in the winning lineups is 84.52%. That’s an edge of nearly 40%. Now, the usual caveat here is that ownership projections may be under on him a bit, but there’s a lot of room to maintain edge. The largest negative edge goes to Derek Carr. Same reasons from the captain breakdown apply here, his touchdown equity and passing volume is just too low.

Some other notes on optimization exposures and projected ownership:

• Alvin Kamara is your free square today, but he’s a much better option in the FLEX than in the captain because of price.
• Both defenses are a bit overvalued, which will likely be a trend for the rest of the year.

Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid

Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:

The first thing that pops out is how much Evan Engram captain we can expect in the highest duplicated lineups. His price and volume are both worth exploiting, and his projections mostly justify it, but you still need to be careful. While he makes for a good captain based on projection, you need to think about who you are using with him.

There isn’t a specific combo that is super widely used in the FLEX since the pricing is pretty good on this slate. You run into combos of the following players: Kamara, Lawrence, Etienne, Kirk, and Carr. Ridley and Olave are used in the highest projected dupes as well but not quite to the same amount.

This kind of slate you worry less about dupes so long as you are avoiding a couple key roster points. If you stay off of Derek Carr and use Christian Kirk in the captain you are probably in a good spot in terms of managing dupes.

DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts

This is a really good showdown slate with a lot of quality options to build around. Of course, it feels a bit nicer when there are clear paths towards upside, but you should be able to build something you feel good about without too much issue at all on this one. In terms of what that means for win equity, well, you will just have to make sure you get a bit luckier. That shouldn’t be too hard right?

Let’s think through some gamescripts and scenarios:

• If the Jags get out to a good lead, the Saints will have to use more passing, which leads to more upside for Kamara, Thomas, and Olave but I don’t think it leads to more upside for Carr.
• If the Saints get out to a good lead, it’s bad news for Kamara and good news for Jamaal Williams, who would then be handling running out the clock. This script would enable Lawrence and the Jags passing game and ding Etienne.

In both scripts, I think Lawrence in safe as well as Kirk/Engram/Ridley maintaining their upside. I would say there’s a bit more downside for Etienne in a trailing script but not by much. For the Saints, Carr has a low ceiling in both scripts while Kamara gets hurt pretty bad in a leading script.

My preference is playing for a 4-2 Jags lean. I think they have more upside and less downside as a stack. For bring backs using Kamara, Michael Thomas, and the NO kicker (Carr is just ass sweat in the redzone this year) make a lot of sense.

Some players that look overvalued:

• Derek Carr
• Alvin Kamara (captain)
• Defenses

Some players that look undervalued:

• Christian Kirk (CPT)
• Jimmy Graham
• Alvin Kamara (FLEX)

Good luck and bink a unique

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