For those interested, I wrote up some thoughts about which game environments I think have paths to being the game you need to target in medium/large field contests. I may add to or change these up to lock, but I feel good about the start here…..
Maybe we can make this apart of our weekly content here at Paydirt! In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
SF/TB
- This game has paths to go under but man…. Stacking from both sides is concentrated and both teams can push each other. TB is the more aggressive offense here, so you need them to start the party but if we get Jennings out…. Mac Jones/CMC/Bourne with White/Egbuka seems like the nut combo if this game shoots out.
- From the TB side, going Baker/White/Egbuka, Baker/Egbuka/Otton, Baker/Egbuka/Shepard with CMC/Bourne on the comeback is pretty sick too. If you think this game can shootout, play all angles.
- And if you don’t think it shoots out, grabbing one from each side as a mini stack isn’t a bad way to go. TB is top 3 in the league at giving up receptions to RBs. I legitimately you can think of CMC as a top 5 WR play on this slate too.
SEA/JAX
- I probably want to stack this through the Seahawks side. Darnold/JSN with either Kupp/Barner/Horton sounds like a good idea and then bring it back with someone from Jax. Both RB’s get too much work for me to try to pick one.
- If I do stack through Jax, I’m just skinny stacking Lawrence but I don’t love that. Think SEA gets pushed here and if they do, there’s a world where none of the Jax position players can get there which is wild. If I had to pick, the corpse of BTJ, Dyami Brown from the WR core and then obv ETN is always in play with his usage. Lawrence/ETN Clemson glory days stacks some would say.
- Jax plays one of the highest levels of zone coverage in the league and Darnold has been so good against zone coverages. Combine that with Jax having one of the lowest pressure rates in the league and he may be cooking with some gas here.
CAR/DAL
- Watch the weather but think I want Dowdle AND the Dallas side if I do attack it. Won’t touch Bryce Young. If weather holds up, I don’t see how Dak doesn’t throw for 4 touchdowns here lol. Javonte is obv a good play but they’ve actually been sort of “ok” against running backs, so I don’t think it’s crazy to pivot in larger field contests off of Javonte to Kyren Wiliams, Judkins, etc.
- Dallas feels easy to stack with Ferg/Pickens with Dak or if you want to go wholesale offense here add Javonte. I’m open to Flournoy but he’s more of a man beater and this is the top zone usage team in the league.
LAC/MIA
- Achane/Dolphins D combo is VERY interesting. We’ve seen this Chargers team give up some very efficient running performances to RBs and with his passing game volume, his floor feels safe and at sub 10% ownership, I have a lot of interest.
- Also like Waddle/Waller. Don’t think I want anything from the LAC side. The O-line injuries are catastrophic and MIA blitzes at a top 3 rate in the league.
- I have this game listed here for the sheer fact that Miami’s defense is such hot garbage that there’s a possibility that they can’t get pressure and Herbert just slices them. Also, the MIA side is so concentrated and the only player who’s price tag makes you hesitate is Achane at $7800.
- Waddle at $6100 as the defacto number one against a team that tries to pressure but doesn’t get a ton of it and Waller at $4k with his red zone role, they’re cheap for the roles they have.
NE/NO
- Maye/Diggs/Henry/Shaheed
- Rattler/Shaheed/Olave
- Feels like this is a game that can win someone a million dollars if the offenses can concentrate. Pats play a lot of man and Gonzalez is hurt again (Q tag right now). Think the NO stack is economical and Rattler has been legitimately solid. Cue Taysom Hill to ruin all the vibes…. which wants me to lean into the Maye side more here.
LV/TEN
- Love this spot this week. Titans stacks are where I want to lean as I think the Raiders will be able to, dare I say, “establish it”. Jeffrey Simmons being back helps but still, this is a below average run defense unit.
- Ward/Ridley with Jeanty feels good as does Geno/Jeanty/Meyers or Tucker with Ridley. Think one of the cheap pieces in this game like Ayomanor, Chig, and Dike can be added into a stack with big play splash potential. Mayer too but I don’t think his ceiling is worth the gamble.
- I much prefer the TEN side here but can’t fault you if you want the stack LV. I just think Jeanty is the lynchpin that can set this game off.
CLE/PIT
- Very very sneaky shootout potential here. This game can be ugly and be one of those AFC North 17-13 battles which is probably likely, but I think there’s a real path to points here.
- PIT’s defense has rebounded since Week 1 and the Browns defense has been a pleasant surprise thus far, but they’re still giving up production in areas which the other probably wants to attack….
- CLE wants to run and feed Judkins and make life easier for Gabriel in his 2nd PIT has been very susceptible to RBs and are bottom ten in most rushing categories. PIT has been middling against pass catching options but what helps their defense get stops is that they’re a top 5 team in turning pressures into sacks. Stacking the CLE side is high-risk/high-reward for sure.
- From the PIT side, they’ll see a TON of man coverage and Cleveland has been regressing a bit in the secondary. Elite run defense chops but DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin seeing this man coverage? Yeah… one of these two has an opportunity to house one and they’re so cheap.
- Where I really want to attack this game is with mini stacks (Judkins/Metcalf, Judkins/Austin, Metcalff/Njoku). If picking a stack, I’m leaning towards the Cleveland side if I had to.
QBs I’m considering so far (bolded are my stronger leans) –
- Maye
- Stafford (watch weather)
- Darnold
- Lawrence
- Dak (watch weather)
- Love
- Ward
- Gabriel
- Rattler
- Mac Jones
- Baker
RBs I’m considering so far (bolded are my strongest leans)
- Taylor
- CMC
- Achane
- Jacobs
- Jeanty
- Javonte
- Kyren Williams
- White
- ETN
- Dowdle
- Judkins
- Chase Brown
- Carter
- Rhamondre
WRs I’m considering so far (bolded are my strongest leans and I will designate if I think they should be in a stack vs a one off)
- Puka
- Chase
- JSN
- Egbuka
- Pickens
- Davante Adams
- BTJ (should be in game stack or JAX stacks)
- Waddle
- QJ
- Diggs
- Pittman (stack only)
- MHJ
- Metcalf
- Doubs
- Olave
- Bourne
- Ridley
- Dyami Brown (game stacks or stack only)
- Horton (stack only)
- Kupp (stack only)
- Shaheed
- Ayomanor
- Dike
- Downs (stack only)
- Flournoy (stack only)
- Shepard (stack only)
- Tez Johnson (stack only)
- Demarcus Robinson (if Jennings is out and stack only)
For TEs, you should prioritize the game environments disucssed and incorporate this position into your stacks/mini stacks. But, if I had to pick –
- Henry
- Warren
- McBride
- Njoku
- Kraft
- Barner
- Waller
- Otton
- Sanders
- Fant/Gesicki
- Tonges
- Long/Mundt
Best of luck and go bink one!
- Jason O