Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a pretty straight-forward 5 game slate where the edge is clear.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to NHL ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
*I’m not going to go over what the tools say in here as much anymore, but it does guide my thinking. I encourage everyone to use them heavily.
- The chalk on this slate is very clear to me. It’s one of NJ1 (Hischier/Bratt/Meier) or ANH1 (Carlsson/Terry/Gauthier) paired with PHI1 (Cates/Foerster/Konecny). I have NJ1 and ANH1 between 18-20% each and PHI1 at 22-25%.
- I don’t have a significant problem with NJ1, but it does make sense to play Hischier/Meier/Hamilton instead of standard NJ1 or NJ1 + Hamilton. Jesper Bratt just doesn’t shoot that much and sub-20 points at 6.8K doesn’t really cut it – even on a 5-gamer. I also think Mercer/Gritsyuk/L. Hughes/Nemec is a reasonable alternative at a much lower price. It’s just not a high volume Power Play spot.
- I can’t poke a lot of holes in ANH1, but they don’t project that well and the Blues goaltending won’t be garbage forever if you believe in these goalies track records. They will be accruing ownership due to various biases in favor of Anaheim and against St. Louis.
- The long and short of PHI1 is that – yeah, they’re fully correlated on the PP and underpriced. However, this line sucks at even strength. 1.76 xGA and 50 shot attempts per 60 are awful numbers for any NHL line. Their game logs look good, but it’s mostly been accrued on the Power Play and via an unsustainable shooting percentage. I think this is the spot to get away from in all fields. They project well, but there’s a lot of volatility and plenty of alternatives. I’d much rather pay 2-3K more for STL1 (Thomas/Kyrou/Neighbors) or CBJ1 (Fantilli/Johnson/Voronkov) at somewhat lower ownership in smaller fields (15-17%/ea) or BUF2 (Zucker/McLeod/Quinn) in large fields.
- Our matchups tool likes both sides of the NJ/CBJ game and UTA the best.
- My initial ownership will have WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) behind NJ1 and ANH1. Our line marketshares tool has them with the highest share by almost 50%. The ownership gap between them and NJ1/ANH1 will be much wider than the industry-wide projection gap of only a few points. I suspect it’s more like NJ1/ANH1 18-20%/ea and WPG1 12-14%. WPG1 is the best play in smaller fields by a lot (unless my ownership changes). Just play WPG1.
- They don’t generate a ton of offense – and they’ll have plenty of ownership – but I do like the Blues tonight. My favorite way to play them is through the second power play (they split time evenly) with Kyrou/Schenn/Holloway or Neighbors/Faulk. You get their two best scorers in Holloway and Kyrou while unloading ownership. We have that Power Play projected extremely well – and I agree. You can also go to STL2 (Dvorsky/Buchnevich/Schenn) for a dirt cheap line at lower ownership.
- It’s a volatile situation, but I also like BUF tonight. I think a BUF PP stack with Thompson/Doan/Dahlin – with a 4th guy thrown in or not – is a sharp play tonight. Doan is the net front on the Power Play and their 3rd best scorer behind Tuch. I think you can play any of the 3 BUF lines, but I think BUF2 and BUF3 (Ostlund/Tuch/Doan) are great plays at lower ownership. WPG has really struggled defensively and BUF is the lowest owned team on the slate.
- The clear leverage play in large field is PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Hayes). It’s not really a high-volume scoring spot, but game theory dictates I mention PIT1 or the PIT PP as viable routes. I also think PIT2 (Malkin/Mantha/Novak) is a strong play on the cheap end at low ownership. PIT and BUF2 (McLeod/Quinn/Zucker) are my two favorites pivots off PHI1 or PHI2 tonight.
- Our projections love Columbus as usual. New Jersey is chalky and bad defensively, but I just don’t see CBJ1 as appropriately owned. They’re fine, but overowned.
- Utah has been terrib le, but that likely keeps their ownership down despite a great spot against San Jose.. They’re my second favorite play behind STL PP2. UTA1 (Hayton/Peterka/Keller), UTA2 (Schmaltz/Guenther/Yamamoto), and UTA3 (McBain/Crouse/Carcone) are all in play. UTA1 is by far my favorite and is only slightly behind STL PP2 on my board. They make a phenomenal pivot away from PHI1 or PHI2. UTA2 and UTA3 are also in strong spots. I think a UTA PP stack is also firmly in play. It is worth noting that Logan Cooley skated this morning, so these lines may fluctuate as we get closer to gametime. If he plays UTA1 will be Hayton/Keller/Peterka and UTA2 Cooley/Schmaltz/Guenther. They’re both excellent and should see suppressed ownership based on the currently published lines.
Synopsis: In small fields, I think the clear route is to play WPG1. Let everybody else play NJ1 and ANH1. Just make the best play. If you want to make the super chalky play – yeah PHI1 is there. However, I think paying up for CBJ1, UTA1, or STL1 is a much sharper way to go. If you want to play the chalk in NJ1 or ANH1 with PHI1 – it’s the double-bag condom play of the year
In larger fields, Pittsburgh and Buffalo are the lowest owned plays. UTA1/PP and STL PP2 grade out pretty strong for me as well. Utah has been bad for awhile and the public loves Askarov (rightfully so). UTA and STL are solid spots to invest in under-performing teams against favorites of the public. PIT1 is the leverage play and likely the most underowned, but I just think that game sucks and fading it entirely is a very strong move.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I suspect the most popular one-offs tonight will be Matvei Michkov (3500) and Cutter Gauthier (6800). Michkov projects incredibly well industry-wide, but please be careful. He only plays 12-13 minutes a night at even strength, the coach hates him, and he frequently doesn’t even play in defensive zone situations. He’s a pretty volatile play with limited ceiling.
- The clear best one-offs on the slate are Jordan Kyrou (5100) and Owen Tippett (4400). They won’t be low owned, but they have really high shot rates and are underpriced. I also really like Arseny Gritsyuk (3200) and JJ Peterka (3600) as one-offs. Go Team Non-Power Play!
- I like Nick Schmaltz (6200), Timo Meier (6600), Sidney Crosby (7500), Kyle Connor (7600), and Macklin Celebrini (7700) on the high end
- It’s completely viable to play a defensemen at UTIL tonight. Werenski is an incredible play
- If you insist on cheaper guys that are on PP1 – I like Josh Doan (4500), Chris Kreider (4800), Kent Johnson (3400), and Anthony Mantha (3400)
- Cheap PP guys: Dvorsky (2700), Wennberg (3200), K. Johnson (3400), Mantha (3400), Cates (3500), Buchnevich (3500), Foerster (3700)
- #TeamNon-PP: Holloway (4600), Tippett (4400), Toffoli (4100), McTavish (4100), Peterka (3600), Gritsyuk (3200), Schenn (3200), Dvorak (2900), Glass (2700), Toews (2600), Koivunen (2600), Pinelli (2500),
Synopsis: Kyrou, Holloway, Tippett, and Peterka are my favorite one-offs by quite a bit. Please don’t play a Michkov one-off – on anyone from PHI that isn’t Tippett or Zegras for that matter. These guys project well, but just aren’t that good and don’t shoot enough to be reasonable one-offs to me. It’s a great night to play some non-Power Play one-offs.
NHL Defense
- I expect the chalk defense pairing to be one of 25% Zach Werenski (8000) or 22% Dougie Hamilton (5600) with 18% Jackson LaCombe (4800) or 15% Cam York (3300). Werenski looks great. New Jersey has long given up plenty of production to defensemen and their first pair has been awful defensively this year. I don’t care about his 25% ownership. He plays half the game.
- Rasmus Dahlin (6500) won’t be low owned, but he is a strong play nonetheless.
- I think there are a couple of pairings to highlight here in Mikhail Sergachev/Sean Durzi, Zack Werenski/Damon Severson, and Luke Hughes/Simon Nemec. The second is correlated on the power play, Sergachev/Durzi will play a ton, and Hughes/Nemec projects well industry-wide. Rasmus Dahlin/Matthias Samuelsson also make plenty of sense paired with Thompson and another power play guy
- I think a Crosby/Rust/LeTang/Karlsson 4-man makes a bunch of sense if you choose to play PIT.
- Philip Broberg (3900), Ivan Provorov (3600), and Ratko Gudas (2800) project well industry-wide and stand out as contrarian guys to pair with chalky lines.
- It feels awful – but I do like Justin Faulk (4100) and John Klingberg (3300) quite a bit as cheaper power play guys. I’d rather play them than Chalky Cam York.
- Somebody I want to call out is Emil Andrae (2600) from PHI’s second pair. He runs their second power play and has been their best power play defensemen for over a year now. He’s likely low owned and makes a lot of sense to play with PHI2 or in a two-man with Tippett.
- I think Werenski or Hamilton at UTIL makes a lot of sense.
- Your cheap PP guys are Damon Severson (2700), Cam Fowler (3200), Cam York (3300), John Klingberg (3300), and Sean Durzi (3600). It’s painful to say, but my favorite is Klingberg if you have a mental block and must play one of these clowns.
- #TeamNonPP: Luke Hughes (4500), Philip Broberg (3900),Simon Nemec (3800), Ivan Provorov (3600), Kris Letang (3500), Owen Power (3100), Ratko Gudas (2800), Emil Andrae (2600)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play two of the chalk guys. I’d still rather play Klingberg than Cam York – and that’s a serious indictment on York and PHI1. Werenski would b a priority for me. In larger fields, I definitely like the non-PP guys and the pairings I listed above. I think Sergachev/Durzi and Hughes/Nemec are both really strong. So are Emil Andrae and Ratko Gudas as punts. Friends don’t let Friends play 15% owned Cam York.
NHL Goalies
- I don’t really see a defined chalk here. It looks pretty flat. My only two real stances are that Askarov (7200) will be overowned and Tristan Jarry will be popular in lineups without Flyers.
- I’ve got no real lean here as usual. I think Allen (8400) and Binnington (7800) are pretty strong on the chalkier side. I’m unsure of Binnington’s ownership though. He’s been awful and sources are conflicted. I have him at 15%, but that could change.
- I think Merzlikins (7000) is a pretty strong play. New Jersey puts a lot of shots on net – and plenty of them are low quality.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I suspect the chalk is either NJ1 or ANH1 with PHI1. CBJ1 and STL1 will also see plenty of ownership.
- I think STL PP2, Gritsyuk/Mercer/Hughes/Nemec, and Tippett/Zegras/Andrae are pretty strong ways to access the chalkier stuff.
- STL PP2 is my favorite play on the board. UTA1 is probably second.
- The matchups tool likes CBJ, NJ, and UTA.
- I think BUF is probably the lowest owned team on the slate – and therefore my favorite. I think a BUF PP stack, BUF2, BUF3, or Thompson/Dahlin/other PP guy make a lot of sense for large field
- PIT1 also makes sense. I just think that game sucks as a whole.
- Owen Tippett, Jordan Kyrou, JJ Peterka, and Dylan Holloway are all standout plays on this slate. These are my core plays of the night.
- I think playing any of the Nemec/Hughes, Werenski/Severson, Sergachev/Durzi, or LeTang/Karlsson defensive pairings makes sense as a contrarian way to attack one team or another.
- Zack Werenski is going to be close to a lock for me on this slate. The raw points are so strong that it’s hard to ignore on a slate of this size. His ownership doesn’t really matter to me.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think you play WPG1 with either CBJ1 or STL1/PP2. I am on an island with my belief about the Anaheim ownership, so if you want to play them that’s fine. I think werenski is almost a total lock for these formats. I’m not going anywhere near this PHI1 chalk. If you want to play NJ1/PHI1, I have no idea what to tell you.
In large fields, I think STL PP2, PIT1, UTA1, UTA2, and some sort of BUF stack are all strong plays. I would be inclined to play one of Doan or Zucker instead of a non-shooter like Benson though. Utilizing the double defense pairings – especially with UTA – makes a ton of sense to me here. I wouldn’t be worried about playing a defensemen in the UTIL tonight either. It’s totally viable – especially if one of them is Werenski or Hamilton.
In conclusion, I’m running away from the PHI1 chalk and I think ANH1 ends up overvalued due to how bad the STL goaltending has been. I think they’re both great teams to short. Getting over the field on this poor-performing UTA team, the best players on STL (Kyrou/Holloway), PIT, and BUF makes sense. There’s so many underpriced guys with high shot rates on this slate that I have a really hard time playing guys like Chalky Jesper Bratt or Zach Benson who just don’t shoot the puck.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm