Welcome to another NHL DFS slate. We have an interesting 6-gamer on tap tonight. Let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• Despite the presence of other lines that are well-projected and multiple high-powered offenses in great spots – COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog) and COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Lehkonen) look like the clear chalk to me. I have COL1 at 26% ownership and COL2 at 17%. I expect 5 and 6-man stacks of COL to be very popular as well. Colorado is in a very strong spot against St. Louis and we have COL1 projecting extremely well value-wise – even at their price. However, they are one of the 3 teams that always see inflated ownership. I think it just gets out of control here – especially in smaller fields. MacKinnon at 40% or more is just a pass for me on a slate this loaded with talent.
• The secondary chalk here is definitely Columbus. I have CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment) at 15% and CBJ3 (Jenner/Coyle/Olivier) at 12%. They are ina  very strong spot at home against this reeling New Jersey team that got shut out by short handed Toronto last night. This is also a very strong spot. If I’m picking between the chalk – CBJ1 would be my choice. They are significantly underpriced. CBJ3 is also fine, but there are other lines with similar projections and very little ownership to play.
• If you insist on playing COL1 – there are some strong pivots on the cheaper end. STL3 (Dvorsky/Kyrou/Stenberg), STL2 (Schenn/Neighbours/Snuggerud), BOS3 (Zacha/Arvidsson/Mittlestadt), and – my personal favorite – DAL3 (Duchene/Benn/Hryckowian) all project very similarly to COL1. DAL3 should have no ownership and I am not worried about the Buffalo depth, goaltending – or anyone on BUF for that matter. They look strong in all formats.
  
• Ok so let’s talk about Edmonton. They are at home against a Boston team that leads the NHL in penalties per game. They would be the overwhelming chalk on almost any other slate. Boston has split up their lines – so I don’t think a first line with Alex Steeves and Elias Lindholm will pose much of a challenge to EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins). EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Savoie) also seems like a fine pivot away from CBJ1, but you’re taking a huge projection hit. That’s not my favorite approach. I suspect there will be a significant ownership gap between COL and EDM in events like the $5 Poke Check, $12 Single Entry, and any other lower stakes event. It probably also exists to a lesser extent in smaller fields like the $333 or $222 as well – since folks tend to hug the chalk there. The point to take home is that I don’t see EDM and COL being that different probability-wise, but ownership will likely reflect a non-existant probability gap. EDM likely has the higher ceiling due to the fact that the Blues just don’t commit many penalties. They won’t be low owned, but we’re talking 15-17% vs 25% plus in large field/lower stakes and 20-22% vs 28-30% in smaller fields. It’s a gap worth exploiting.
• Now let’s talk about the Boston side. EDM has been taking a fair amount of penalties the last two weeks, their PK is awful, and their goaltending is awful. Boston is also near the top of the league in penalties drawn and has a top-10 power play. I don’t have much interest in BOS1 (Lindholm/Geekie/Steeves) or BOS2 (Pastrnak/Khusnutdinov/Minten), but a BOS Power Play stack is pretty interesting here. You can get Lindholm/Zacha/Pastrnak for 15.9 or Lindholm/Geekie/Pastrnak for 18.8. I prefer the second and adding McAvoy. This is an interesting spot that – at 18.8 – drops you in no-mans land on this slate. This is a high-ceiling spot at a reasonable price – and an intersting way to play CBJ1 or COL2.
• It is definitely viable to play DAL1, DAL2, or DAL PP in large field GPPs. If you’re looking for ceiling in something like the $5 or $20 – the Dallas Power Play or Hintz/Robertson/Heiskanen definitely provides it. Buffalo has played better and the pace to this game is dreadful, so I prefer to just pay up and play a 4-man power play stack. It’s a very boom-or-bust spot, but it’s win probability goes way up if COL falls short of the field’s lofty expectations. I prefer other spots though.
• You can always play WPG1 against a mediocre opponent like DET. They represent a massive share of the team’s offense – so if WPG scores a bunch, they likely do as well. It is a dreadful matchup against the shutdown Seider/Edvinsson pairing, but the ownership should be super low here. I think I prefer the DET side here. DET2 and the DET Power Play have both been excellent this year. DET2 likely draws a matchup with the Samberg/Pionk pairing, but Kane and Copp are underpriced. WPG also commits a fair amount of penalties and has allowed high danger chances at a top-3 rate since the return of Hellebuyck. He’s long been able to prevent those chances from turning into goals – but that has not been the case as much this year so far. I think DET is in a stronger spot than the field might account for, but I prefer the Power Play as a pivot away from COL or EDM.
• If you want to pull down your pants and slap your cock on the table – St. Louis stacks project pretty well, are cheap, and definitely playable. They’re a strong large field play – and you can pair them with Binnington for the Lexington Steele Big Dick play of the year. Your dick size is reflected by your willingness to play Blues stacks. 

In smaller fields – I think COL/CBJ lineups lack win equity. They’re just too chalky. I think the ownership on COL gets out of control due to how bad STL has been and I think EDM is a reasonable alternative. If you insist on playing COL – DAL3 will be unowned and they look great. A CBJ1/BOS Power Play lineup also makes sense. If you want to play BOS PP/COL2 I suppose that’s ok as well. I do not hate CBJ1 in smaller fields at all. They’re too cheap.

In larger fields, I think COL’s ownership dwarfs that of anyone else – including CBJ1. It really should be the other way around. I’m fine with larger CBJ stacks here, but I think playing some non-PP guys in them is a good idea. I do not hate EDM1 or EDM PP stacks here either. I think playing EDM with both Bouchard/Ekholm or Bouchard/Nurse makes a lot of sense. BOS and DET Power Play stacks are my favorite large field plays here. DAL3 and BOS3 look solid here as cheap fillers. You can kind of play whomever, but any form of COL stack will be very detrimental to your win equity. They just aren’t that much better than EDM.

NHL Defense

 

• Cale Makar (8100) is the chalk defensemen tonight at 22%. Evan Bouchard (6800) looks like he’s 20% owned. Denton Mateyechuk (3800), Devon Toews (3600), and Ivan Provorov (3800) are all 15%.
• I think Charlie McAvoy (5000), Luke Hughes (4400), and Mo Seider (6800) all look underowned to me
• I think this in an incredible spot for Philip Broberg (3100) and Colton Parayko (3400). These guys are dirt cheap and will need to block a ton of shots for the Blues to have a chance. Justin Faulk (4600) is more expensive, but brings more offense to the table. I like him as well.
• It’s a good night for cheap, non-PP guys that aren’t Avs or Blue Jackets. Matthias Ekholm (4000), Esa Lindell (3800), Simon Edvinsson (3300), Neal Pionk (3300), and Rasmus Ristolainen (2800) look pretty good. I do not have just playing Sam Malinski (2900) outside of a COL stack either. He’s just too cheap.

Synopsis: The top-tier chalk guys are fine. I’m not worried about their ownership, but Seider is a strong pivot. I think the Blues guys are also very strong plays in an environment where they will see plenty of opportunities in heavy minutes. McAvoy, Hughes, and Ekholm are three of my favorites as well.

 

 

NHL Goalies

 

• Jet Greaves (7400) and Connor Hellebuyck (7600) likely lead the way in ownership at 15% each. Dustin Wolf (7800) and MacKenzie Blackwood (8400) look 10-12% owned.
• Jordan Binnington (7000) is the big dick play of the year. He’s made me a lot of money in spots like this over the years. Jeremy Swayman (7200) seems fine. Play whomever.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• COL1/CBJ3 and CBJ1/COL2 are the two clear chalk builds. Maybe I’m wrong and EDM carries the same ownership as COL – but I doubt it.
• CBJ should be the highest owned team by a lot – but I do not see it that way in larger field and lower stakes contests.
• EDM is a strong option, but I do like playing both Ekholm/Bouchard to offset ownership.
• The Detroit and Boston power plays are also in strong spots tonight. I like them a lot at very little ownership.
• BOS3, DAL3, STL2, and STL3 are a few strong cheap lines to target.
• The Blues are so cheap and low owned that I don’t know how you ignore them. They’re not an incompetent offensive team. Slap your dick on the table and don’t be a wuss.
• Parayko and Broberg are in particularly good spots at insane prices. Jordan Kyrou is also way underpriced
• Jordan Binnington. Lather, rinse, repeat.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – Columbus would be my priority. You can get away from COL to other stuff with high ceilings – but nothing matches Columbus’ projections. DAL3 and BOS3 are strong contrarian cheap stuff for small fields. Edmonton looks really strong here as well – especially at lower stakes and in tiny fields where people hug the chalk.

In larger fields, EDM seems fine. You’ll have to do something like Bouchard/Ekholm or add a Roslovic to be a bit different though. They will be popular, but not popular enough. I think you just get away from COL moreso than CBJ. Columbus projects too well to just ignore and there’s no other comparable team in that price range. BOS, DET, and STL all look like very sharp plays. WPG1 looks fine too.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm