Welcome to Friday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 4 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There is a pretty clear chalk construction tonight – two of UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse), BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs), and ANH1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Kreider).
- UTA1 comes in the highest owned at roughly 25%. UTA2 (McBain/Guenther/Cooley) also comes in at 15% owned. It seems odd to me tht a team going up against a Stout defense in Minnesota and goalie in Wallstedt would be so chalky – not to mention that their total and projections don’t really separate as far from the field as ownership suggests. Colorado/Utah is the toughest Back-to-Back in hockey – so maybe that’s part of it. It’s a fair amount of ownership, but it seems fine.
- This is a pretty rough spot for BUF1 (20%) at even strength – but it is definitely a solid power play spot and the Sabres power play has been excellent all season. The Reinhart/Rodrigues pairing is pretty good defensively at even strength, but I think this is a spot where you can definitely invest in the BUF Power Play. If you don’t want to play straight BUF1 – you can certainly go to a Thompson/Doan/Norris/Dahlin power play combination or BUF2 (McLeod/Quinn/Zucker) if you need something on the cheap end. BUF3 (Norris/Doan/Ostlund) is probably my preferred cheap option from BUF though. Norris and Doan are both importantparts of their power play
- This is a pretty strong spot for ANH1 (17%). WPG1 – and the Jets as a whole – have not been very good defensively and commit their fair share of penalties. The only downside is you’re facing Connor Hellebuyck. They are probably my favorite of the chalk lines.
- WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) also project to come in at around 20%. They are in a decent spot against Anaheim – but that’s a fair amount of ownership for a 20K WPG1. They seem like a much stronger play in a smaller field where the Jets concentrated scoring becomes a big advantage and larger stacks become more viable. VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) is the clear pivot away from them at an identical price and 1/4 the ownership.
- Florida grades out extremely well for us tonight. FLA1 (Rodrigues/Reinhart/Verhaege) and FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Samoskevich) come in at 10-12% ownership each in a positive matchup against Buffalo that they have to win. FLA cannot lose this game and have any hope of sniffing contention. I do not mind going here as an alternative to chalkier UTA – especially in smaller fields. I probably prefer FLA2 due to matchup and slightly lower ownership.
- The clear contrarian team here according to our projections is the Minnesota Wild. MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) and MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) both come in around 7-8% and definitely seem like strong large field plays at a minimum. Our projections are quite optimistic on them – despite the B2B and admittedly very difficult matchup with Utah. However, they are facing Karel Vejmelka in net – and he isn’t very good. MIN2 is probably my preference due to price – but I don’t think you can go wrong with either.
- The game that just isn’t getting much ownership is WSH/VGK. I definitely do not mind going to VGK1 despite the matchup against Logan Thompson – or WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Protas against the very mid defense and goaltending of Vegas. You could also go to WSH2 (Dubois/Wilson/Leonard) or WSH3 (Sourdif/Frank/Beauviller) if you need a cheap line with lower ownership. Thompson will be huge chalk – so playing Vegas will come with substantial leverage
In smaller fields – you can play Utah if you want – but they seem pretty overowned. You definitely want a higher ownership number tonight in something like the $333. You can definitely roll with something in the 100-120% ownership range if you want. That said – I’d rather play ANH1 or the BUF Power Play if I’m eating ownership. WPG1 is fine if you’re comfortable with BUF3 or some lower owned cheap line. I think FLA1, FLA2, MIN1 or MIN2 are definitely sharp plays in these events and our projections agree. Vegas is probably the sharpest play against a super owned Thompson
In large fields, I think MIN, VGK, and WSH are all pretty sharp plays. If you wanted to do a larger BUF or FLA stack – or a game stack for that matter – that would also make sense. Anaheim is definitely my favorite play among the chalkier teams.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Dahlin (6500), Jakob Chycrun (6300), and Mikhail Sergachev (5500) are all around 25% and make up the chalkiest guys. I will also have Jackson LaCombe (5000 and Sean Durzi (3900) around 15% in my last update.
- It will surprise nobody that I like Quinn Hughes (7800) and Brock Faber (5300). You can definitely play them together.
- I do like Jackson LaCombe and Rasmus Dahlin as chalkier guys tonight.
- Uvis Balinskas (3200) and Logan Stanley (3700) are your cheaper power play guys tonight.
- If you want to play Owen Power (3400), Bowen Byram (3200), Gus Forsling (3600), or Aaron Ekblad (3500) as stand-alone guys or in a stack – I think that’s fine. They will all eat substantial minutes at reasonable prices. I do not hate Jared Spurgeon (3400) either.
I think the chalk guys are all fine. I’m probably not going to Stanley, but Balinskas is too cheap. I really do like a Hughes/Faber or Ekblad/Forsling pairing tonight in any format. Playing two FLA defensemen makes a ton of sense.
NHL Goalies
- Logan Thompson (7400) is the clear chalk here. I’ll end up with him around 35% ownership. He will probably be 40%+ in something like the $333. Vejmelka and Lyon are probably second around 12-15% each.
- Confirmed: Tarasov (FLA), Hellebuyck (WPG), Vejmelka (UTA), Wallstedt (MIN), Schmid (VGK), Thompson (WSH), Lyon (BUF)
- Unconfirmed: Dostal (ANH)
Stacks and Theory
- The data says that you can definitely carry more ownership on these smaller slates. I’d say as much as 120-125% is fine in smaller fields and 100-110% is a fine ceiling in large fields.
- This is a slate where larger stacks definitely will be more in play. 5 and 6-man stracks of teams like FLA and BUF definitely make sense. I would just keep in mind that playing all 5 guys from one of their power plays will not provide very much leverage and reduce your EV. The data says it’s best to include well-projected guys who aren’t on the power play
- Think in a more granular fashion on slates like this. Doing something like playing Kreider or Vilardi as a one-off is a strong con trarian way to create leverage.
- I definitely like several double-defense combinations tonight. MIN, FLA, and BUF provide some strong options
- If you want to do something like play Dahlin, Chycrun, or Hughes in the flex – I think that’s a solid play in the $333 or a similar event.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I still like ANH1 at ownership. BUF is fine and I am lowest on UTA at their ownership. I think factoring in the B2B too much after most of these guys were off for 3 weeks is pretty flaky logic. FLA and MIN look like the top plays at anything but chalk. Double defense and a defensemen in the flex are also strong ways to be different in smaller fields tonight. Paging Quinn Hughes.
In larger fields – Vegas is the clear sharp play against super chalk Thompson. VGK1 is definitely where I would be going. VGK2 and VGK3 both look very mediocre. I also like MIN1, MIN2, FLA1, FLA2, and larger FLA/BUF stacks or game stacks. Playing somebody like Vilardi, Kreider, or Barbashev as a one-off is also a sharp way to go. So is a high-end defensemen at flex. I’m more inclines to stay balanced in my salary allocation tonight, but BUF3, WSH2, and WSH3 look ok as contrarian options at cheap prices.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 6 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm