Welcome to a 7 game slate of NHL DFS – our final one before the three week Olympic Break. Thank you to those of you who have read and supported my work so far this season. I have enjoyed doing it and you are appreciated beyond words.
For those of you planning on continuing in NHL DFS – I will be publishing a series of articles over the break on things like winning lineup/roster construction trends, power plays, what to expect from teams in the second half, and more. So keep an eye out for those
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- There are going to be two chalk builds tonight – encompassing Four teams. The two primary stacks that are likely around 20% owned will be BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs) and TB PP (Guentzel/Kucherov/Bjorkstrand). I have been singing the praises of the Sabres for the last couple months – and I have little bad to say about them here. They’re facing a top 6 of PIT that is – at best – average defensively with suspect defense and goaltending behind them. TB1 (Guentzel/Kucherov/Hagel) is almost 25K as a line – so the field will go to Bjorkstrand instead of Hagel in order to cut down the cost. They are facing an extremely penalty-happy Florida team in what should be an extremely physical affair. TB1 has been an elite line on both ends of the ice all year and there’s little bad to say about them. It is worth mentioning that FLA has reassembled the absolutely suffocating defensive line of Lundell/Reinhart/Luostarainen line to match up against them (to the best of their ability on the road). That’s not a reason to fade TB – but this isn’t as good of a spot as it would be with another Panthers lineup construction. I don’t hate either of these options – but I would lean toward TB if I had to pick. I love BUF1 – but playing them as chalk makes me nervous.
- Speaking of nervous the most popular team to pair with these stacks will be New Jersey (rolls eyes). I have both NJ1 (Glass/Meier/Brown) and NJ2 (Hischier/Gritsyuk/Hameenaho) at 13% apiece. They are facing an Islanders team that bleeds high danger chances and relies on future Vezina winner Ilya Sorokin to bail them out. Both of these lines project really well industry-wide, but I’m going to throw some cold water on them. New Jersey has generated only 16 high danger chances over their last 10 games – and has posted a higher percentage of low danger chances than any other team. They struggled to generate quality chances with Jack Hughes and it’s only gotten worse. Projection systems know better than I do – so take what I say in that context. I could easily be wrong. These guys just seem really shaky to me.
- The fourth chalk team is Washington – with ownership about the same as New Jersey at slightly higher prices. They are facing a NSH team on a road B2B that is just playing pickup hockey and getting blown up by everyone. WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) have been great offensively all year – but are priced more as a primary line tonight at 15.4. You can fit them with BUF1 + Dahlin – but you can’t fit them with TB. That BUF1/WSH1 combination will clearly be a chalky one tonight. WSH2 (Dubois/Wilson/Protas) is a different matter. They are priced at 13.7 and you can fit them with that TB Power Play stack. They should see mostly premium matchups against this Nashville depth that got blown apart once again by Minnesota last night. Haula/Marchesseault and McCarron/Bunting are just terrible defensive combinations.
- Let’s talk about the other side of that game now. Nashville is scoring plenty of goals to go along with their defensive struggles. NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista) has been outstanding offensively all year (3.5 xGA/60). NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Forsberg) has been solid as well. Nashville is really pushing the pace against their opponents – and it’s been making me quite a bit on the Over/Unders. Logan Thompson is projected to be back for Washington – but I will let the field fret about that. Washington has been bleeding high danger chances for a month and Thompson’s numbers have fallen off considerably as a result. These two lines are easy to build with at 15.7 and 14.4K respectively and come in 5-7% owned apiece. I prefer NSH1 or a NSH Power Play combination – because the WSH Penalty Kill has been among the worst in the NHL all year – but NSH2 is fine as well. Roman Josi has also been on an absolute tear over the last few weeks – and I am loathe to stack this team without him. I think a game stack is totally fine here as well. The Preds are – once again – my favorite spot of the night in all fields.
- Another spot I really like tonight is Pittsburgh. Buffalo has undeniably turned their season around – but it’s certainly not due to their defense. They continue to bleed high danger chances at a top-10 rate and be bottom 10 in expected goals against per 60. I have absolutely no problem going to Crosby/Rust/Rakell tonight at sub-5% ownership. Yeah, they’ve been bad and their numbers do not look good this year. I am applying standards unevenly – but these guys have been good for so long that I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt. I do not expect many people to go here when they can play Tampa or a CAR1 line that has been great lately (we’ll get to them). PIT2 (Malkin/Chinakov/Novak) continue to shred everyone in their path and I doubt that the defensively-challenged BUF depth will change that. They’ve gotten a price bump to 13.6 – but they look like a phenomenal alternative to WSH2. PIT3 (Kindel/Mantha/Brazeau) have also been just as fantastic as PIT2. They are slightly cheaper at 11.9 and also seem like a strong contrarian option at 1% tonight. I would be well over the field on this entire team in MME – and the depth lines are worth considering in all formats if you want to eat some TB chalk.
- The third team we have to talk about is Carolina. They are facing a Rangers team that is really struggling defensively and in net. CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov) have been fantastic recently and – while I expect them to come in at 8-9% compared to PIT1’s 3-4% – are firmly in play for all field sizes. CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall) continue to be excellent and are one of my favorite cheap alternatives to double-digit owned NJ/BUF2/WSH2. CAR3 (Staal/Martinook/Ehlers) aren’t as strong offensively as CAR2 when it comes to finishing, but are also in play. I like CAR1 quite a bit at 8-9% and both depth lines at 3-4%. Our tools say this is a decidedly better spot than PIT – but it’s reflected in the ownership.
- You can certainly go to Vegas as well. VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) is around the same price as CAR1 and PIT1. I have them lower owned than CAR, but higher than PIT. VGK2 (Marner/Dorofeyev/Smith) also seems….fine….as a secondary line I guess. The Kings take their fair share of penalties – so I have no problem with a Vegas Power Play stack either. Maybe I’m lower on them than I should be, but I have quite a bit of respect for Darcy Kuemper. I think you can definitely go to the Kings side here as well. The Vegas goaltending has been a disaster all year and I expect the field to be lower on the Kings due to the B2B. My favorite option here is LA3 (Byfield/Fiala/Kuzmenko) at 12.9K and 3-4% ownership. You can certainly go to LA1 (Laferriere/Perry/Kempe), but they look to be getting 5-6% ownership and that seems a little rich for me. I’m lower on this spot than the other three I’ve mentioned though.
- I’m just not going to FLA here. The minutes on Matt Tkachuk and Brad Marchand continue to be a huge concern for me. I really don’t want to pay 6.9K for 16 even strength minutes from Tkachuk. If I went here it would probably be FLA1 (Lundell/Reinhart/Luostarinen) because they likely see a pile of minutes. Same thing with this OTT/PHI game. The Sens have an ok total, but the environment is terrible. PHI projects okay so go there if you want, but I’m going to pass except for maybe a Pinto/Amadio 2-man. 18-19 minutes is a lot for their prices
- I’m only going to mention them briefly – but I do really like NYI1 (Horvat/Barzal/Palat) as an alternative to BUF1 or WSH1. These Horvat/Barzal lines have absolutely bulldozed everyone, NJ has been trash defensively, and those two guys are playing 20 minutes+/night. Add Schaefer/Sorokin and you get a strong large field leverage stack. They’re near the top of my board in the mid-tier tonight at 5% ownership.
In smaller fields – You have to decide weather you want to go the Tampa route or not. You probably can’t go TB PP/WSH2 or NJ. That’s going to be really chalky – especially the first one. You can definitely go to BUF1 due to the number of combinations you can make – but I’d stay away from pairing WSH or NJ with them. I definitely like going to NSH1 with BUF or WSH here. I think the PIT or CAR depth seems like a fine way to offset Tampa’s ownership. CAR1 seems like a viable pivot from Tampa as well. If it were my money – I would not put it behind this New Jersey team against Sorokin. If I were playing something like the $333 – I’d strongly consider some kind of NYI1 stack with Sorokin and another mid-tier line like WSH/BUF/NSH.
In large fields, I will be well over on NSH, PIT, CAR, and NYI1. NSH1 and PIT1 are my favorite lines of the night. I’d probably spread out my exposure on CAR and also invest in some 5 and 6-man stacks of them. Their scoring can be pretty spread out sometimes if they don’t do it for you on the Power Play. I like PIT2, PIT3, WSH2, and LAK3 on the cheaper end. I want to be way under on New Jersey, around the field on WSH and BUF, and what you do with TB is up to you. I’m undecided on how I will be playing them.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Dahlin (6500) is the clear chalk at mid-20s ownership and could be the slate’s highest owned player. Darren Raddysh (6700) and Jake Chycrun (6300) will follow him at 20%. I have John Carlson (5000) and Dougie Hamilton (5400) at 15-17% each. Brandt Clarke is 12%. Uvis Balinskas (3000) and Bowen Byram (3000) are the chalky cheap guys at 12% each.
- Roman Josi (7300) has been a wrecking ball the last few weeks. I love him here at 8%. Matthew Schaefer (5700) and Tony DeAngelo (3800) both look great against a New Jersey defense that has long been susceptible to shooting defensemen.
- Shayne Gostisbehere (5300) and Erik Karlsson (4800) both look pretty strong in the mid-tier tonight at modest ownership
- I do love the idea of playing Victor Hedman (4300) and/or Matthis Samuelsson (4000) as well. They make a ton of sense to play instead of the super chalky Dahlin and/or Raddysh. Hedman saw 17 minutes the other night – up from 10 the game before. They’re clearly ramping him up.
- If you’re hell-bent on a cheap power play guy I guess you could play Jamie Drysdale (3700). He’s cheap, projects terribly, and is a dogshit hockey player – but HE’S ON AN NHL POWER PLAY. WEEEEEEEEEE
- Gus Forsling (3500) Brady Skjei (3400), Jaccob Slavin (3300), Sean Walker (3300), Owen Power (3300), Adam Pelech (3100), and K’Andre Miller (2900) should all see 20 minutes plus at minimal ownership if you want cheap guys to jam in Tampa.
Synopsis: There are so many strong plays here. You can certainly go to the chalk guys in Dahlin, Raddysh, or Chycrun. I do prefer Roman Josi though. He looks to finally be healthy. I love Matthew Schaefer and Erik Karlsson as well. Hedman and Samuelsson make strong pivots in chalky stacks. You can go to Balinskas as a cheap guy for sure – but there’s a ton of options.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is Andrei Vasilevsky (8200), Ilya Sorokin (7600), and Logan Thompson (7900) end up the chalky guys around 12-15% each. If anyone pulls away it will be Sorokin though. If Thompson doesn’t suit up, then Linus Ullmark (7900) will get that ownership. I assume Thompson goes though since they activated him from IR and sent a goalie down.
- I could see people playing Darcy Kuemper (7100) as a punt as well. He’s been really solid this year.
- As long as Thompson plays, I like Ullmark tonight. Silovs or the BUF goalie don’t seem too bad either
- The NHL big balls play of the night is Daniil Tarasov (7200). TB has big names – but this is basically a one-line team at this point. A huge defensive game from FLA1 could certainly lead to a solid night from Tarasov
- Confirmed: Sorokin (NYI), Allen (NJ), Bussi (CAR), Vladar (PHI), Silovs (PIT), Annunen (NSH), Vasilevsky (TB), Hill (VGK)
- Unconfirmed: Quick (NYR), Ullmark (OTT), Lyon (BUF), Thompson (WSH), Tarasov (FLA), Kuemper (LA)
Stacks and Theory
- TB is probably the team you have to make decisions on. I think you can justify going either way. I’ll post what I’d do with them in discord later. Kucherov will have a ton of ownership as the only mega-star on the slate that the field loves.
- I think BUF and WSH are totally fine. You just don’t want to play them together. I do really like PIT and NSH on the other side of those games.
- New Jersey projects really well and it’s fine to play them – but the risk of systemic failure is pretty high here. There’s mounting evidence these guys just stink.
- I can definitely see going way over on the NSH/WSH game as a strategy here. WSH looks to be in the best spot on the slate and NSH looks pretty underowned here because of Thompson. I prefer NSH1 and WSH2 if I’m picking though.
- Carolina looks great. I think getting over the field on all 3 lines or going with a 5/6-man stack make sense in MME and 1-5 lineup contexts. They could certainly blow this slate apart.
- I strongly prefer the more balanced build tonight. I think there’s significant upside with NSH/WSH, BUF1, the PIT depth lines, CAR depth lines, and NYI1. A double spend up at defense in concert with this kind of build makes a ton of sense to me.
- I definitely think a NYI1/Schaefer/Sorokin build has a lot of promise tonight.
- I absolutely love Roman Josi and Matthew Schaefer tonight. You can also pair them with their partners in Brady Skjei and Adam Pelech to save salary.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – Do you want to play Tampa or not? That’s the first question to ask yourself. There are a ton of viable options in the mid-tier tonight. WSH looks great in these formats and I think NSH1 or NYI1 make great secondary lines. A double spend-up at defense or Hedman and a PIT depth line in a TB stack both make sense.
In larger fields – I could go either way on TB. It’s up to you. I definitely like NSH, NYI, and PIT on the other side of the most popular teams. Hitching your wagon to Carolina and getting over on the entire team or getting way over on NSH/WSH both seem like reasonable macro strategies for MME tonight.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 4 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm