Welcome to a full 10 game slate of NHL DFS. This should be a high-scoring slate with all this value – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• We have some pretty clear chalk tonight and it is definitely Columbus. CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Sillinger) and CBJ2 (Monahan/Johnson/Jenner) both look to be about 17% owned. They project well industry-wide and are in a strong spot against the always physical and high-event Calgary Flames. I definitely like them here – but it’s worth mentioning that they fired Head Coach Dean Evason yesterday and brought in Rick Bowness off the couch. Larger stacks of 5 or 6 definitely make sense here. I also expect the Calgary side to get ownership here. I have CGY1 (Kadri/Huberdeau/Farabee) at 13% as one of the 5 highest owned lines. CGY2 (Backlund/Coranato/Sharangovich) looks to be getting around 7% as well. I like this game a lot. It has the potential for fireworks, but there’s very real downside for both teams. The young goaltenders on both sides are very talented here. I think you can definitely go here in smaller fields, but this is a spot where I’d get way over or way under the field in MME.
• I also expect NSH1 (O’Reilly/Evangelista/Bunting) and DAL2 (Robertson/Hintz/Bourque) to get around 12-15% ownership. Nashville projects as an extreme value industry-wide and will be around 15% owned. The CBJ1/NSH1/Werenski builds with two spend up defensemen are just way too easy. I don’t hate the spot against EDM. they did just activate Tristan Jarry and Jake Walman though. That tempers my enthusiasm a bit. Dallas is in the always-juicy power play spot against Anaheim. The public loves to attack the Ducks and Dallas has an elite power play. Playing a Dallas power play stack is certainly pricey – and you can only reasonably get 3 of them – but I just can’t believe people don’t play them with the cheap value in CBJ2 and NSH1.
• It’s also worth mentioning ANH1 (Granlund/McTavish/Gauthier) here. I have them at 6% owned at a reasonable price of 15.4. The industry has them at higher ownership – but I have a hard time believing people go to them against Dallas at a high rate. They project as a fine value here for the price – and you can play them with CBJ1 – but it seems flaky for such a big slate.
• Our model absolutely loves Ottawa tonight. OTT1 (Stuetzle/Tkachuk/Zetterlund), OTT2 (Batherson/Cozens/Perron), and OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Amadio all project as strong values tonight. I’ll have OTT1 and OTT2 projected at around 5% and OTT3 at 7% to start the day – but they are in a phenomenal spot against a Vancouver team that the field just saw get blown up last night. I would not be surprised if OTT1 and OTT2 ended up eating a bunch of the ownership that I have assigned to DAL2 and NSH1 as of now. I do think all 3 lines – and especially 5/6-man stacks – look great tonight. They seem viable in all fields and look like my favorite team on the board tonight.
• The other team I’ll mention here is Washington. I definitely like WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Protas) as a strong large field play tonight against MTL. I have Protas on line 1, but DFO has him on IR despite playing on Friday with Strome/Ovechkin. They are probably a bit pricey for small field – but I definitely like them at around 5% in large fields tonight. If you’re doing something like playing EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) or an expensive DAL Power Play stack – I do not mind WSH3 (Dowd/Frank/Beauvillier) as a super cheap line here
• DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) have some pretty solid projections in our model tonight as well. They are definitely in play despite the B2B. It’s a strong Power Play spot against Boston and I don’t even hate adding Larkin on top of those 3 guys. I would not drop Andrew Copp though. He has played incredibly well.
• Carolina also seems fine if you want to bet on the Blues goaltending being awful. They have a decent total and low ownership. CAR1 (Aho/Svechnikov/Ehlers) and CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) both seem fine, but I prefer the latter.

In smaller fields – It’s definitely fine to stick with Columbus. CBJ1 will be more popular, but I like the options you get by playing CBJ2 to open up some salary (because I’d lock Werenski). Johnson and Jenner are also the two biggest misprices on the slate. There’s any number of routes you can go, but I think OTT1 is definitely a strong pairing.

In larger fields, I really like OTT and WSH. I suspect that nobody gets to WSH1 because of the price and Protas not being on the power play. I’m still not sure what to make of OTT’s ownership here. I’ll drop an update once I’ve made up my mind on that. I really like them though. This is also a sneaky strong spot for DET despite the B2B. DET2 projects really well and their power play has been elite. A DET Power Play stack would be a super low owned way to go tonight.

 

NHL Defense

 

• I have Zach Werenski (8500) as the clear chalk at 20% – and that number could definitely be too low. The ownership is absolutely justified. The ownership doesn’t really matter to me. He’s miles ahead of any other defensemen. Jake Sanderson (6600) and Evan Bouchard (7300) are 12-15% owned each. Playing two of the 3 will be a popular build tonight.
• I definitely like John Carlson (6200) and Moritz Seider (6500) as solid alternatives to the chalk guys.
• Thomas Chabot (4500) continues to have a silly price. He looks great and I don’t mind playing him and Sanderson together.
• Kris LeTang (3700) will be running the power play for PIT with Erik Karlsson on the shelf. He’s not priced for it yet and I like him quite a bit.
• Thomas Harley (4700), Ivan Provorov (4200), Colton Parayko (4000), and Matthias Ekholm (3900) are a couple cheaper guys if you need them
• Tom Willander is still 2900 running the VAN PP. Same goes for Cam Fowler (3000) for the Blues first power play.

Synopsis: I love Werenski and don’t care about his ownership. He looks great. Sanderson would probably be my second choice, but that’s only because I love OTT tonight. I do not really want to play these guys together. I think LeTang is just underpriced and a great play in all formats. Same goes for Thomas Chabot. Carlson and Seider look good in large field GPPs with their respective stacks.

NHL Goalies

 

• Jeremy Swayman (7600), Ilya Sorokin (7000), and Jet Greaves (7900) look like the popular guys around 15% each.
• I love Dustin Wolf (7500) here for sure. Brandon Bussi (8100) and Andrei Vasilevsky (7900) both look fine as well.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• CBJ1, CBJ2, CGY1, NSH1, and DAL2 look like the most popular lines here. I could see OTT1 getting steamed up and replacing Dallas though. BOS1 also may be up there, but I don’t agree with the industry there.
• I definitely do not mind CBJ, but I prefer CBJ2. Johnson and Jenner are way underpriced.
• I obviously like everything OTT, but I am conflicted about their ownership tonight. They look like a great play in all fields though.
• DET2/PP, WSH1/PP, and CAR1/2 all look like interesting large field plays tonight.
• I think CGY/CBJ is a way over on way under kind of situation in MME. You kinda need to take a stand because the ownership is going to be intense.
• I do not care about the ownership on Werenski. I would just play him.
• Kris LeTang and Thomas Chabot are both way underpriced here. They look great in all field sizes tonight.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I prefer CBJ2 to CBJ1. They’re just the better value and Werenski still plays with them. You get plenty of options by saving the additional 3.5K. OTT1 would be my favorite, You can go to CBJ1 though. It’s fine.

In larger fields – OTT looks phenomenal if the low ownership is real. I’m just not sure it is as of now. DET2/PP, CAR1/2, and WSH1/PP all look like strong plays as well. You’ll have to make a decision on CBJ/CGY stacks. It’s really personal preference, but I would be under the field on everyone but Werenski while being over the field on the goaltenders.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm