Welcome to a full 10 game slate of NHL DFS. This is an interesting slate with a couple of clear chalk spots and some interesting ways to go – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

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NHL DFS Lines

 

• This is a ten-game slate, but the chalk here is firmly behind Washington against San Jose and Columbus against Vancouver. Washington is led by WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) at 15%, followed by WSH2 (McMichael/Protas/Leonard) at 12%. The power play combinations with Ethan Frank or Ryan Leonard instead of Beauvillier will be about as popular. We do not have either of these lines projected as a particularly strong value despite the matchup. I get why they’re chalk – the Sharks are bad, they’re starting a backup goalie, they commit plenty of penalties, etc. We have WSH as being in the best spot per our matchups tool, but it’s not by much. We also have both of the top 2 lines with decent projected goals per our marketshares tool, but neither separates.
• Columbus will be about as chalky as WSH. I have CBJ2 (Monahan/Johnson/Jenner) as the most popular at 14% – but this is mostly due to the fact that they’re cheap enough where you can play them with Werenski and WSH1. I have CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Sillinger) at 12% and CBJ3 (Coyle/Voronkov/Olivier) at 7-8%. The public loves to play Columbus, they have a big total, and Vancouver is a penalty-happy team with a bad PK. It’s a good spot, but I do want to point out that the Columbus Power Play has been absolutely anemic all year. They’re 29th in expected goals for and 26th in high danger chances generated. Their even strength offense is excellent and has been especially good lately. I will offer this as a reason for caution though – the scoring is spread out. We have CBJ1 at 0.93, CBJ3 at 0.82, and CBJ2 at 0.51. I think going with a 5/6-man Columbus stack is a very reasonable route to go tonight. Casting a wider net with a larger stack could definitely pay off tonight. So don’t just stick to the Columbus Power Play guys. That unit sucks.
• BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Benson) also projects to get double digit ownership tonight against the penalty-happy Montreal Canadiens. They seem fine and we have them projected pretty well. They are the popular pivot away from WSH1/WSH2/CBJ1. It’s a great power play spot and I totally get why they’re owned.
• Washington and Columbus are both in strong spots, but their offenses both feature a wider distribution tree. I understand if one believes that CBJ2 and CBJ3 simply present far better options than anything else in their price range. Line Marketshares agrees with that assessment and it will likely be reflected by ownership.
• I do not mind going to WSH or CBJ tonight – but there are two lines that offer excellent upside and a huge portion of their team’s projected scoring. Those lines are PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) and EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins. These lines are both 20K+ – so you are certainly paying for the upside. That does not really concern me here though. Both of these lines are in extremely strong spots against defensively deficient teams. PIT1 likely comes in at around 8% owned and EDM at around 5%. I’m happy to go here and bet on one or the other simply monopolizing their team’s offense in a strong spot. You can put VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) in this pile as well per line marketshares. I’m pretty bullish on Vegas as a contrarian large field play tonight given that total.
• The popular way to access these teams will be by playing CBJ2 or CBJ3. So I will give you a few alternatives. BOS3 (Geekie/Steeves/Minten), BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zacha) and PIT2 (Malkin/Novak/Chinakov) are all cheap and lower owned parts of high-total offenses. NYI1 (Barzal/Lee/Duclair) is certainly not that, but they are likely to see a ton of ice time against Edmonton. They have generated a decent amount of offense – and the Edmonton goaltending is still shaky. I like all of these lines at substantially lower ownership than CBJ.
• The other cheap team that’s in that price range – and worth discussing – is Seattle. The Seattle power play has been just as bad as the Columbus unit, but they are priced and projected similarly against penalty-happy Boston and chalk Jeremy Swayman. Absolutely nobody will play them due to the “SEA is bad on Back-to-Backs” numbers that the fields adheres to. They won me plenty of money on their last B2B and I do not mind going back to SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/Kakko), SEA2 (Stephenson/Tolvanen/Schwartz), or a SEA Power Play combination like Beniers/Eberle/McCann/Dunn.
• Our projections are extremely bullish on the Sharks tonight. We have SJ1 (Celebrini/Eklund/Chernyshov) with the highest median of the night – right next to VGK1. We also really like SJ2 (Toffoli/Wennberg/Regenda) and SJ3 (Misa/Skinner/Graf) as value plays tonight. Washington is nothing special defensively and Thompson has definitely been beatable after an extremely hot start. SJ is definitely a strong large field GPP play tonight.
• There are all sorts of other teams you can go to here. The CGY/CHI game is cheap and likely to be pretty physical. Pick any line from that game or either power play, but CHI3 (Donato/Moore/Lardis) project really well for us. Your guess is as good as mine. Montreal is the other team I will mention. I do not mind going to any of their top 3 lines here against a BUF team that isn’t exactly imposing defensively or in net. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Texier) or some form of MTL Power Play stack is definitely a strong large field play tonight.

In smaller fields – Columbus certainly looks like the move here. I would be fine passing on WSH though. They’re in a great spot, but there are other similar ones that come at much lower ownership. VGK1 is definitely a strong alternative to WSH in a game that projects for solid pace and shot totals. I think simply going to a CBJ overstack is very reasonable as well.

In larger fields, I really like San Jose and Vegas a lot tonight. EDM1 and PIT1 are also serious standouts. This is an excellent MME slate – as the field will be concentrating ownership in spots where the scoring isn’t. I also think SEA is a really sneaky play on the cheap end against chalky Swayman. A SEA1, SEA2, or Power Play stack could absolutely win somebody all the money tonight – and it’s our first true sicko stack in quite awhile.

 

NHL Defense

 

• I have Zach Werenski (9000) with more than twice as much ownership as anyone else – 25%. Artyom Levshunov (3600) and John Carlson (6300) come in at 10-11% each. Dante Fabbro comes in at 9% – which is just a pass for me outside of a double-defense CBJ stack
• I definitely like Rasmus Dahlin (6400) as a solid play tonight. Kris LeTang (4400) and Vince Dunn (4600) are a couple of my other favorites.
• Outside of Werenski you can literally play anyone you want. Nobody besides him looks owned enough to matter.
• Adam Larsson (3300), Dmitry Orlov (3200), and Tony DeAngelo (3200) are a few of my favorite cheap guys.

Synopsis: I love Werenski and have no issue playing him tonight. I’m also very ok fading him at that price in large field play. That is a lot for a defensemen and his ownership will result in a lot of other stuff in the 4-7K range being underowned.

NHL Goalies

 

• Jeremy Swayman (8000) is the clear chalk at 25%. The field believes in SEA’s numbers over the last 15 or whatever B2Bs. I’d expect Connor Hellebuyck (7200) to draw double digits on the cheap end
• You can definitely go to Ilya Sorokin (7000) if you like living dangerously. He is not a safe play, but the upside for a massive night is there. Dustin Wolf (7500) and Spencer Knight (7900) also look like strong plays. Alex Nedeljkovic (7100) is facing WSH, but there’s not enough leverage to matter on a slate this size.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• Columbus and Washington are the two clear chalk teams tonight. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Benson) also looks to get double-digit ownership. PIT1 may as well.
• I definitely do not mind CBJ, but the scoring is very spread out. I have no preference really.
• My strategy on this slate would be to focus on teams that offer concentrated scoring. PIT1, EDM1, and VGK1 all really fit that mold.
• San Jose and Seattle are both very strong GPP plays. Seattle is especially intriguing given the narrative the numbers paint about them on B2Bs and the ownership on Swayman.
• I don’t mind going with MTL1 either. They seem like a strong large field play that may go overlooked.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I think CBJ is a strong play and a 5/6-man stack of them is kind of an obvious construction. Just don’t feel bound to their power play guys. Just play whomever is well projected and correlates. WSH1/CBJ2 or 3 is a top-5 double condom play of the year so far. Super obvious and super popular construction.

In larger fields – it’s pretty wide open outside of CBJ and WSH. My strategy would be to invest in teams that offer concentrated scoring or are way underowned though. EDM1, PIT1, and VGK1 fit the first. San Jose, Seattle, and MTL1 fit the latter category. I also think taking a stand on Werenski one way or the other is an idea. He’s really expensive and it’s a big slate. I do not think he’s a must-play at that price given the number of high totals here.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm