Welcome to Monday’s 6 game slate of NHL DFS. The chalk is pretty clear and there’s a coupe other spots I like – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

 

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• There is a very clear chalk build tonight – MIN1 (Hartman/Zuccarello/Kaprizov) and ANH2 (Granlund/Killorn/Sennecke). MIN1 is the top projected line by raw points across the industry, is a strong point/$ value, and has a strong matchup against a defensively deficient Leafs team. They played mid-20s minutes in an overtime game against Buffalo on saturday, so you can expect solid minutes from MIN1 here. ANH2 is also in a solid spot against a Rangers team missing Shesterkin and their star defensemen in Adam Fox. They project as the standout value on the slate. Both of these lines are underpriced for their roles, however I will mention that Anaheim may just not be a very good team without Leo Carlsson. He’s really important to their power play and puck movement. I have the ownership at 30% for MIN1 and 20% for ANH2. It will be much higher for both in small fields.
• There is a second build that will also be pretty chalky – some combination of NYI1 (Barzal/Lee/Heinemen), TOR1 (Matthews/McMann/Domi) and ANH1 (McTavish/Gauthier/Strome). I have them at around 15% each. NYI1 is in a strong spot against this joke of a Vancouver team and I definitely like them the best of those 3. I do not mind the spot for TOR either considering the ownership we are likely to see on the Wild’s starting goalie. Anaheim is the spot I will be looking to get under the field tonight. They simply do not generate the same amount of offense without Carlsson and ownership is certainly not accounting for this.
• MIN/TOR is definitely a solid spot to attack today. There’s plenty of frontline talent here and both teams allow plenty of high danger chances. I definitely do not mind going to TOR2 (Tavares/Maccelli/Kneis) as a cheaper way to get access to this game. Kneis is questionable, but my guess is we get Robertson bumped up to take his spot here and on the power play if he is out. There’s not too much of a drop off there. We have TOR2 as one of our top values and I completely agree. They’re near the top of my board tonight.
• The first spot I want to discuss tonight is WPG/CHI. There’s really no way around it – Winnipeg has been bad this year. However, that’s not because of some big drop off in WPG1’s performance. Weather it be with Iafallo or Vilardi – Scheifele and Connor are performing along the same lines they did a year ago by both expected goals and shot attempts/60. They have always been power play merchants – and they should get a fair number of chances with the man advantage against this very physical Blackhawks team. Chicago’s PK has been very good this year, but I am still willing to take my chances with the Jets tonight – as their PP has been better since swapping Iafallo for Jonathan Toews. If you do not want to pay for WPG1 – I do think WPG2 is an acceptable pivot away from ANH2. I just prefer to play the line with a huge share of the Jets expected goals. The Chicago side is also interesting. Connor Bedard is cheaper than the most expensive skaters on the slate and has the highest raw projection for us. Andre Burakovsky is a GTD and sounds closer to out than anything – therefore we will have to watch for the Chicago lines as gametime approaches. I do not mind any of the 3 top lines, but CHI2 (Dickinson/Mikheyev/Bertuzzi) would be my preference as a cheap option tonight if I’m not playing Bedard. I think my favorite approach with the Blackhawks is Bedard/Bertuzzi/Mikheyev/Levshunov though. You get 3 guys on the PP and 3 guys on CHI2 as well.
• The other game that interests me is NJ/CGY. Jack Hughes’ health is somewhat of a mystery and my guess is it will depress his ownership to a degree. That would make NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Meier) a very strong play against this high-event Calgary team starting Devin Cooley at lower ownership. I do not mind a NJ2 combination of Hischier/Mercer/Hamilton or Hischier/Mercer/Gritsyuk either. NJ3 (Glass/Gritsyuk/Brown) is a strong value, but I’m just not sure if there’s a need for an 8.6K line on this slate. The Calgary side is also pretty interesting. Markstrom has not been good all year and neither has the New Jersey defense. CGY2 (Backlund/Sharangovich/Coranato) and CGY1 (Kadri/Gridin/Zary) both seem like strong plays with solid projection and power play correlation. I like them as a pivot away from Anaheim on the cheaper end at around 6-8% ownership for sure.
• I also think it’s totally fine to go with VGK1 (Eichel/Stone/Barbashev) as a pivot away from MIN1. They are facing a shaky PHI team and come at much lower ownership than MIN. I would not mind going to either NYR1 (Trochek/Panarin/Lafreniere) or some kind of Power Play combination either, but I suspect that becomes a pretty popular option. Teams facing Anaheim usually get an ownership bump.
• You can certainly go to the NYI/VAN game for cheaper lines as well. The Vancouver Power Play projects well industry-wide as a cheap option against the popular Ilya Sorokin. The Islanders are a chalkier option, but you can offload ownership ny mixing in some of their cheaper guys like Simon Holmstrom or Calum Ritchie.

In smaller fields – I think you definitely need to pivot away from either MIN1 or ANH2. That combination is just too chalky. ANH2 does present value unmatched anywhere else – and they also get Spencer Martin instead of Jonathan Quick tonight. I think they are probably the stronger small field play of the two really chalky lines. Going to NJ1, WPG1, or VGK1 over MIN definitely makes sense.

In larger fields, WPG and VGK stacks definitely stand out to me as strong contrarian plays on the high end. I do not mind going to NYR1 at lower ownership either. I think both CHI and CGY present opportunities to get away from the chalkier ANH and NYI lines. I definitely do not mind the Vancouver power play as a well-projected contrarian option against chalky Sorokin. TOR2 is also a standout play for me on this slate with or without Matthews. Minnesota has been decimated by injuries and attacking their depth players that will end up overexposed makes a ton of sense to me.

 

NHL Defense

 

• Matthew Schaefer (5700) looks like the chalkiest defensemen at 25% ownership. You will see him paired with guys like Jackson LaCombe (5000), Brock Faber (5200), Jacob Trouba (4000), or Artyom Levshunov (3700) at 12-15% each. I have Quinn Hughes at 20% owned as well.
• There are plenty of defensemen to like tonight. Dougie Hamilton (4800), Luke Hughes (5200), Rasmus Andersson (5500), Shea Theodore (5400), and Morgan Reilly (4000) stand out in the mid-tier as solid options to get away from chalk
• Zeev Buium (3200) hasn’t been good since being traded, but he’s running the VAN Power Play at a cheap price. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3100), Simon Nemec (3000), Jake McCabe (3000), and Zack Whitecloud (2500) if he plays look like strong options on the cheap end
• I definitely like playing two defensemen from Vegas tonight. Any two of Theodore, Andersson, Lauzon, or Hanifin look solid. I prefer Theodore/Andersson myself.

Synopsis: I definitely like the Vegas defensemen as strong ways off the chalk tonight. Schaefer and Hughes are strong plays, but I think there’s some really strong value with Ekman-Larsson, Nemec, Levshunov, Buium, and Whitecloud tonight.

 

NHL Goalies

 

• I suspect that the chalk will be Ilya Sorokin (8000) and Spencer Knight (7200) at 18-20% each. Jake Markstrom looks to be 12-15% owned
• You can certainly go with Laniken (7400) or Gustavsson (7300) if you want. Aidan Hill (8400) is definitely a reasonably safe option tonight if you want to pay for it.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• MIN1/ANH2 or some combination of TOR1/NYI1/ANH1 will be the chalk builds tonight. Anaheim is still without their best playmaker in Carlsson and Minnesota is without their entire second line. I’m probably sticking with ANH2 in small fields due to the projections around the industry though. ANH is an easy spot to get under in larger fields though.
• WPG1/PP, NJ1, NYR1, and VGK1 are all strong options on the high end tonight. I can see getting away from MIN as well.
• I think a Marner/Dorofeyev/Andersson/Hanifin lineup is a fun idea
• Winnipeg and Vegas are probably my two favorite spots tonight. I like the prices on Winnipeg and the low ownership on a priced up Vegas
• It’s a strong night for double defensemen. Any of Vegas’ top 4 makes for a great build. Same with two of Reilly/Ekman-Larsson/McCabe
• TOR2 looks like a phenomenal play with or without Matthews tonight. That opinion won’t change if Kneis is out.
• The Vancouver power play and VAN1 looks like a strong spend-down spot tonight against chalk Sorokin. You can save some salary and just go with DeBrusk/Boeser/Buium or Hronek as well if you prefer.
• I think going cheaper at defense makes sense once again. There’s a ton of cheap guys who project well I mentioned above. Utilize them.
• It’s a good night for larger stacks and contrarian lines in the low/mid-tier.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I think you have to get away from a MIN1/ANH2 build. It’s too chalky for any field size. I prefer to go with VGK1 or WPG1 over MIN and stick with ANH if you refuse to move off both, but TOR2 and VAN1 looks like great secondary options given the amount of cheap defense tonight.

In larger fields – I love the idea of getting under on MIN and over on TOR. I think it makes a ton of sense given the value TOR presents at defense and with TOR2. WPG1, NJ1/2, VGK1/2, and NYR1 all look like strong lower owned plays on the top end. There’s a lot to like here and it does not project to be a super high-scoring night. Spread out and take advantage of all the different spots. I’d lean more toward MME here than SE or 5-man.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm