Welcome to Wednesday’s 6 game slate of NHL DFS. It’s a pretty straight forward slate – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*There will be a 6 pm ET update in discord

*All goalies will be listed with “Confirmed” or “Unconfirmed” next to them. Be sure to check back before lock if you’re playing someone unconfirmed

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• The clear chalk tonight in all formats will be either COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lahkonen) or a COL PP stack (MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson). They are facing Anaheim – who are a joke defensively and take a ton of penalties. There really isn’t much to say here and I can’t poke any holes in the spot. The two combinations above probably encompass 25% ownership in large field and 32-35% minimum in smaller field/high stakes events. I simulated the top 20 lineups in the $333 using multiple different models and ownership sets. There are very few lineups in those sets that do not include a Colorado stack.
• There’s no clear secondary stack the field is going to along side Colorado. All of TOR2 (Tavares/Maccelli/Kneis), CGY1 (Kadri/Gridin/Zary), CGY2 (Backlund/Coranato/Sharangovich), and COL3 (Drudy/Kelly/Olofsson) will be common ways to offset COL1’s salary. TOR2 is the clear best choice here – as they are fully correlated on the Power Play and clearly the best Hockey players. It’s a tight fit with COL1 though. These Calgary combinations have been awful, but Stu Skinner (confirmed) has been too.
• If I’m looking for a contrarian line to go with COL1 – I think SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/Kakko) and ANH2 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn) are both reasonable options. This Ducks/Avalanche game does have a 7 total – so it’s not like the Ducks project for zero goals here. As much as the Colorado stans in chat may disagree – the Avs top line simply is not good defensively. This is especially true without Landeskog and Toews. It’s not like MacKenzie Blackwood (unconfirmed) and Scott Wedgewood (unconfirmed) were even starting goalies before they came to Colorado either. Anaheim should have their fair share of chances if they can somehow not spend 12+ minutes in the penalty box. ANH2 is getting around 18-20 minutes/night and is probably the line I target here. SEA1 should end up with middle six matchups against an Islanders team that is sorely lacking anything resembling quality depth. The Islanders just bleed high danger chances and pray that Ilya Sorokin (unconfirmed) stands on his head for 60 minutes. I’ve ragged on SEA all year – but they are top 10 in the NHL in high danger chances over the last 10 games and somehow hold a playoff spot if the season ended today. They are totally fine.
• If you want to play something like MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson/Makar – you will have limited options with the rest of your roster. The popular route will likely be to fill in with guys like Parker Kelly and Jack Drury for value. If you want to go somewhere else cheap I think TOR3 (Roy/Cowan/Robertson) is totally fine. They’re facing this DET depth that has long been incompetent defensively. PIT3 (Kindel/Mantha/Brazeau) have also been pretty good together and will see premium matchups against poor defensive lines from Calgary. If you want to get real Frisky – I think a Garland/Ohgren/Willander 3-man from VAN PP2 is also in play. Garland is a high shot-rate guy who has always been talented and the other two guys are solid prospects who can play. They will have zero ownership facing Washington and (likely) Logan Thompson, but I’m really not worried about any of these Washington lines defensively.
• Colorado aside – the ownership likely concentrates on NYI1 (Barzal/Duclair/Lee) and the DET/TOR game. I have DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane), TOR2, NYI1, and TOR1 (Matthews/McMann/Domi) at 12-15% each. DET2 has simply been excellent all year. I dragged Pat Kane and Andrew Copp all of last year – but they have been borderline elite this year. If I’m going away from COL I do not mind eating ownership on these guys against Toronto’s inept defense and goaltending. NYI1 is fine, but Anders Lee is only seeing 15-17 minutes of Ice time due to having no role on special teams. They seem a bit overvalued – as does TOR1. Auston Matthews has been dominant, but so has the Seider/Edvinsson pairing. If I’m eating ownership outside of COL – it’s probably DET2 for me.
• PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell) is the obvious pivot away from COL in that price range. They are an elite line, but at Calgary without Karlsson and possibly LeTang just leaves them completely devoid of puck movers on the blue line. This is the same issue that’s plagued the New York Rangers all year and I am definitely concerned enough to be hesitent here. They seem fine at 12%, but I am not enamored.
• If I’m getting away from the chalk tonight there are two spots I like besides SEA1: VAN1 (Petterson/Boeser/DeBrusk) and UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse). UTA1 has simply been dominant – 3.34 expected goals and 84 shot attempts/60 are exceptional offensive numbers. Couple that with 1.86 expected goals against per 60 and you have a line that just dominates possession going against a poor defensive line in PHI1. If you do not want to invest 17K – UTA3 (McBain/Carcone/Guenther) have generated an outrageous 117 shot attempts per 60 in their small 35 minute sample together. VAN1 is fully correlated on the power play and these Washington lines completely suck. It is a great spot for Washington per our tools – but Strome/Beauviller/Protas and Dowd/Ovechkin/Frank do not scare me defensively at all. I also do not believe in them offensively. However, If Tom Wilson (GTD) plays and they shuffle the lines around that changes everything and WSH vaults to the top of my board. Pay attention in discord for updates.
• The game theory play here is to play Anaheim and Lukas Dostal (confirmed). It’s a sound mathematical play and I wish those of you playing it the best of luck. I will not be one of them.

In smaller fields – just play some form of a COL stack. That’s what the sims say to do and I agree with that. If I’m picking a line to play with them I’d probably go with UTA3, TOR3, or SEA1 personally. I do not really want to contend with the glut of folks playing COL1/COL3, COL/TOR2, or COL/CGY stacks

In larger fields, You’ll have to decide how to handle COL1. You can stack them, overstack them, or just play MacKinnon/Makar or something. All of them will be popular. COL1 is far and away the highest probability play tonight. Outside of COL – I really like UTA as a somewhat lower owned option tonight. They may just be able to control the play all night and generate a ton of offense. UTA1 and UTA3 have both been phenomenal. I would not begrudge anyone for playing a DET or VAN Power Play stack either. Toronto and Washington do not take a ton of penalties, but they cannot stop anyone on the PK. 

NHL Defense

 

• The clear chalk at defense will be Cale Makar (8500) at 25%. Morgan Reilly (4300), Sam Malinski (4200), and Filip Hronek (3300) will be the popular pairings at 18-20% each.
• On the expensive end I like Jake Chycrun (6800), Mo Seider (6200), and Matt Schaefer (6000) as alternatives to chalky Makar. They will still be 12-15% each though.
• Utah’s first pairing of Sergachev/Durzi have been losing ice time to John Marino (2900) and Nate Schmidt (2800) at even strength. I like them quite a bit with UTA stack or without. They are underpriced for the 22 minutes/night they are skating. Kevin Bahl (2600) and Zack Whitecloud (2500) will play low 20s minutes for Calgary and probably block a few shots. I’d rather play the UTA guys though
• you can certainly go to Vince Dunn (4800) to round out your SEA1 stack and give you 3 guys on the power play
• Brett Kulak (2900) can’t move the puck at all, but probably runs the PIT Power Play. At least he can shoot a little. Zeev Buium (2900) is running the VAN Power Play but has really struggled since the week after the trade.
• Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3400) and Tony DeAngelo (3600) both generate some offense for their respective teams. I like them better than the cheap power play guys. Tom Willander (2900) and Matt Roy (3500) also fit that mold.
• You can play any of the Anaheim defensemen tonight. Jake Trouba (5000) should get hit with the puck like that dude picking up balls on the driving range.

Synopsis: Makar and Malinski will be in a huge percentage of COL stacks. I think you can definitely go to Kulak or Buium in small fields, but I prefer guys like DeAngelo, Ekman-Larsson, Roy, or the Utah guys. Jake Chycrun is a strong small field picot away from Makar due to his propensity to shoot. I think two of Chycrun/DeAngelo/Ekman-Larsson has plenty of upside for any field size tonight.

NHL Goalies

 

• I suspect the field will go to Stuart Skinner (7400, Confirmed) or whomever the SEA goalie ends up being (7500) to save money. Ilya Sorokin (7900, unconfirmed) and Logan Thompson (8100, confirmed) probably come in behind them. I do not see any goalie getting 20% tonight though.
• Dostal will sim very well. Get the alcohol ready if you click that button. I do not mind John Gibson (7600) or Dustin Wolf (8000) at lower ownership. Whomever the UTA goalie is will be very live for a shutout and a low save total.
• Confirmed Goalies: Thompson (WSH), Gibson (DET), Woll (TOR), Ersson (PHI), Dostal (ANH), Skinner (PIT), Wolf (CGY), Laniken (VAN)
• Unconfirmed: Sorokin (NYI), Grubauer (SEA), Vejmelka (UTA), Wedgewood (COL)

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• COL1 is the clear chalk. MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson and whatever other power play combinations will also be very popular. COL1 deserves the ownership. They are the highest probability play by a lot
• If I’m picking from the rest of the stuff with ownership it would be DET2. TOR is fine, but I’m not enamored with PIT1.
• I think UTA is in a very strong spot and very live to score 5-6 goals tonight simply by controlling the play against a lousy goalie in Ersson. UTA1 and UTA3 look great.
• SEA1 and VAN1 both look like strong plays on the cheaper end tonight.
• I think some combination of Chycrun, DeAngelo, and Ekman-Larsson is a strong play in all formats. Makar is awesome, but that’s a lot of ownership and a big price tag.
• You will have to decide what you want to do with COL. How you handle that shapes the slate in large field/MME settings.
• Anaheim and their goalie is the clear leverage play tonight. I will not be going there, but it’s the game theory play.
• The DET/TOR game also starts two hours before every other game. You can just fade that one and wait if you want more information to make decisions.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – some Colorado combination is the obvious play tonight. I do not see much reason to get away from it unless you want to fish for an extreme advantage. SEA1, UTA3, TOR3, or some Vancouver combination look like reasonable contrarian ways to play COL in these formats

In larger fields – decide how to handle COL and go from there. Do you want to just get way over, stay even on MacKinnon/Makar/Olofsson and fade everyone else, or just fade COL1? These are all paths to choose from. It depends on your risk tolerance. I really like UTA as a contrarian option tonight. Washington will also look great if Wilson plays and they reset their lines. I definitely like SEA1 and the Vancouver power play as well. You can also just get way over on the DET/TOR game and under on COL as a strategy if you want. That’s not an unreasonable way to go.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm