Welcome to Thursday’s 8 game slate of NHL DFS. This looks like it’s going to be a wild one – so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back. 

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 12 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

*There will be multiple updates in discord

*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.

 

 

NHL DFS Lines

 

• It does not look like we have any super high-owned lines tonight, but there are a couple clear chalk combinations that stand out to me. The first is EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins) and CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake). The second is MIN1 (Hartman/Zuccarello/Kaprizov) and DAL2 (Duchene/Johnston/Steel). The Oilers are facing a PIT team on a road B2B that basically allows you to do whatever you want on offense. It’s not entirely clear if Leon Draisaitl returns here, but Saturday sounds more likely based on the coach’s comments yesterday. CAR2 has been excellent all year and is in a strong spot against a pretty poor Chicago team. MIN1 faces a DET team who is B2B on the road, but they will likely draw the Seider/Edvinsson pairing for a chunk of the game – and they have been the best defensive pairing in the league up to this point. Dallas is in an elite spot tonight against a terrible Columbus team that just hemorrhages offense to everyone. Mikko Rantanen is believed to be sitting out once again – but more ownership will shift to CAR2 if he plays. I’ll address the ramifications of that in a bit here. If you’ve read my articles this year it will not surprise you that my lean is to go the Edmonton route over the Minnesota one.
• It’s hard to poke holes in the matchups for Edmonton and Carolina. They have the highest totals and best projected paces per our model. The drawback with CAR is the same as always – the scoring is very spread out between all 3 lines. If you want to go to CAR3 (Staal/Martinook/Ehlers) instead of CAR I have no issue with that. Staal and Ehlers should both see some power play time here. You can definitely go to CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov) as well here. They’re obviously in a different price tier, but present a very viable pivot away from Chalkier MIN. CHI’s PK has been excellent all year, but the Hurricanes should see plenty of power play opportunities tonight.
• MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Dach) also projects to come in with quite a bit of ownership tonight (around 15%). Suzuki/Caufield have been solid all year and are facing a BUF team that just is not very good defensively. The popular pairings with them will be DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Bourque) and – to a lesser extent – NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista). I have DAL1 at 15% and NSH1 at 10%. I’ve been hammering this for quite awhile – but NSH1 has been truly excellent this year. They are facing an OTT team that – while good defensively – is definitely less so on the road where they can’t match up the Pinto line against top competition. They are also extremely penalty-prone and relying on some terrible goaltenders in James Remier and Hunter Shepherd. The Nashville power play hasn’t been great this year, but they’re fully correlated, see a solid 19-20 minutes a night, and have been consistently very good. They also moved Brady Skjei (2900) to the top pair along side Roman Josi (6500) – which makes the stack much more affordable. They will have ownership, but are one of the top plays on my board tonight.
• Ok so there’s plenty of contrarian spots to choose from tonight – and I’ll start by addressing one of my favorites in the Vegas Power Play. They’re expensive – but in a truly elite spot against a Boston team that takes a ton of penalties and struggles on the PK. The Knights Power Play has been excellent for years when Mark Stone (7500) is healthy and this is a prime spot to roster them. You can also go to Marner/Dorofeyev/Hanifin as a cheaper way to access Vegas.
• BUF1 is similarly priced to MIIN1 and – while not in a great spot at even strength – is in a high-volume power play spot against another extremely plenaly-prone team in Montreal. They aren’t quite as good without Josh Norris, but the Sabres power play has been excellent all year. I have no problem simply adding Rasmus Dahlin (6600) to my BUF1 stack and/or putting one of Ostlund/Zucker in my lineup as well. I’m loathe to drop Alex Tuch because he is clearly one of their 3 best players and an integral part of BUF1 – but you can replace him with Zucker (4800) or Ostlund (3100) if you want to save salary.
• As good as MIN has been offensively – they are really struggling on the defensive end without their entire second line and defensive stalwart Jonas Brodin. They’re on a B2B, but you can definitely go to Detroit at super low ownership here. DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) have been great all year and are super affordable at 16.5. DET1 (Larkin/Raymond/Kasper) also seem totally fine at 15.1. Minnesota doesn’t commit a ton of penalties, but they can’t stop a nosebleed on the PK. I do not mind the DET PP as an ultra-contrarian large field play tonight. Nobody will be on them.
• FLA/WPG is another interesting game for large field GPPs. Both of these teams have completely cratered defensively this year. Connor Hellebuyck has really struggled this year – and WPG needs him to be great in order to win because they’ve never been awesome in front of him. Florida has always been a physical team that commits plenty of penalties while relying on a great penalty kill. Getting Matthew Tkachuk back may help a bit, but both of their goalies have been absolutely abysmal – especially Sergei Bobrovsky. I do not mind going to WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo), FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaege), or either power play in large field play. The ceiling is absolutely there for both of these teams in what should be a very physical affair.
• You could also go to Chicago tonight if Fredrik Andersen starts. He’s been awful this year. I do not hate CHI2 (Donato/Bertuzzi/Nazar) as a value line at all.
• If Rantanen ends up playing – I suspect it just flattens the ownership. We will see more folks going the balanced route with DAL/MTL, DAL/NSH, etc rather than EDM or MIN. That will obviously be reflected in an ownership update.

In smaller fields – this is a tough slate for those who want to play the highest owned stuff. Nothing really seperates ownership-wise tonight. Edmonton and Carolina are in the best spots, but DAL/MIN/VGK/MTL aren’t that far behind. I do not think you need to go to EDM here because it’s so wide open. I guess I would say just pick your favorite spots.

In larger fields, it’s very wide open. The only thing I would say is be careful with MIN1. They seem pretty overowned. I think going to the DET side of that game at super low ownership is a strong way to go. The WPG/FLA game, VGK Power Play, and BUF power play also present strong options in large field play tonight. I also like NSH1 quite a bit despite the ownership. It’s pretty much a choose your own adventure night.

 

NHL Defense

 

 

• My guess is Evan Bouchard (6800) and Thomas Harley (5000) come in at around 20% each. Roman Josi (6500), Miro Heiskanen (6300) and Quinn Hughes (7600) probably come in around 15%. Darnell Nurse (4300), Artyom Levshunov (3400) and Brady Skjei (2900) likely come in around 10-12%.
• Rasmus Dahlin (6600) will probably be 8-10% owned, but he looks like a strong play to me. As do all of Noah Dobson (5200), Mike Matheson (3700), and Lane Hutson (5700). Playing Dobson and Matheson with MTL1 is a solid way to offset some ownership and stay well-projected tonight.
• You can definitely pair Brock Faber (5600) with Quinn Hughes in large field GPPs. He’s been extremely active offensively. You obviously play two of Bouchard, Matthias Ekholm (3700), and Darnell Nurse (4300) as well.
• Brady Skjei is on first pair with Roman Josi for NSH.
• Mo Seider (6200), Shea Theodore (5300) and Josh Morrissey (5900) will accrue no ownership tonight. I especially like Morrissey tonight as an under-the-radar play.

Synopsis: It’s a pretty good slate for defensemen. I definitely like the MTL, NSH and EDM pairs. Morrissey, Seider, Theodore, and Dahlin all look like strong alternatives to Hughes, Heiskanen, and Bouchard.

NHL Goalies

 

• I suspect the field will go to Cam Talbot (7300) if they’re not playing MIN. I have him at 20%. Akira Schmid (7800) and Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen come in at 15%.
• I don’t mind Juuse Saros (7900) or Tristan Jarry (8300).
• Confirmed: Korpisalo (BOS), Montembeault (MTL), Greaves (CBJ), Saros (NSH), Knight (CHI), Hellebuyck (WPG), Desmith (DAL), Luukkonen (BUF), Schmid (VGK), Jarry (EDM)
• Unconfirmed: Talbot (DET), Gustavsson (MIN), Silovs (PIT), Bobrovsky (FLA), Remier (OTT), Andersen (CAR)

 

NHL Stacks and Theory

 

• Assuming Rantanen is out – the chalk builds will likely be EDM1/CAR2 or DAL2 and MIN1/CAR2 or DAL2.
• The balanced route is definitely fine. I suspect NSH1 ends up underowned compared to DAL1 and MTL1.
• This is a pretty wide open large field slate. I like VGK and BUF Power Play stacks quite a bit. DET1/2/PP, WPG1/PP, and FLA2/PP all look like strong contrarian options tonight
• This is definitely an overstack night. A Large Carolina or Vegas stack could definitely get you to the top.
• I definitely like CAR1 here. They should see lower ownership despite their total.
• There are several defensive pairs from the same team that look strong.
• CHI2, PIT2, WPG2 look like reasonable contrarian plays on the cheap end, but well-projected options are definitely lacking there
• I’m probably not going to MIN2 or EDM2 at their 7-8% ownership. It’s not really worth it to me, but I guess it’s viable.

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – It’s pretty wide open. I’m probably not going to EDM1/CAR2/ or MIN1/CAR2 though. It just doesn’t seem worth the ownership to me. EDM1 would be my preference as far as the chalk goes. I do like DET2, NSH1, and MTL1 in small fields though.

In larger fields – Choose your own adventure. There’s a lot to like here outside of the chalk – so it’s a great MME slate. BUF1/PP, VGK PP, DET2/PP, and the FLA/WPG game all stand out as lower ownership spots to attack. Larger CAR stacks or just CAR1 also seem fairly strong tonight. I also like a larger MTL stack with multiple defensemen as well.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com: 

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm