Welcome back to another week of NHL DFS. This looks very straight forward – so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 11 am ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*There will be multiple updates in discord
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
*the Kings/Blue Jackets game has been cancelled due to weather.
NHL DFS Lines
- The highest owned line of the night looks to be BOS1 (Lindholm/Pastrnak/Geekie) at 25%. They are facing a Rangers team that is really struggling on multiple fronts due to injury at a competitive price of 18.9. Our projections have them as one of the best values on the slate – just as the rest of the industry does. The popular BOS1 build will likely be an ANH2 (Poehling/Veil/Gauthier) or NYR2 (Miller/Zibanejad/Perreault) pairing. I have them both around 15% owned. The ANH2 build allows you to play Bouchard at Defense – and people will want a piece of the Oilers tonight.
- Let’s talk about the Oilers. EDM1 (McDavid/Nugent/Hopkins) will be fairly popular – around 15% – but the individual ownerships on players like McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard will be much higher. They are just so expensive that it’s hard to build with them at over 24K. McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins/Bouchard leaves you about 2800 per spot after you add a cheap goalie. McDavid/Draisaitl/Bouchard leaves only 3100 per spot. McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins/Ekholm is a little easier at 3700 per spot, but that still leaves very limited options and high combinatorial ownership to contend with. The popular pairings with an EDM1 stack will be BOS2 (Zacha/Mittlestadt/Arvidsson) and PHI2 (Couturier/Barkey/Michkov) at 10-12% each. This is an incredibly strong spot for Edmonton against an Anaheim team that is short handed – and would be overmatched even if they were healthy. You can certainly play EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Kapanen) at 8-10% owned, but I have little interest in that. It feels like a half-measure. All of McDavid/Draisaitl/Bouchard will be 25-30% owned, but this is clearly the best spot of the night. However – we also saw COL completely flop in the exact same spot a week ago – so anything is possible.
- The field knows that Boston commits a ton of penalties, has major issues killing them off, and Korpisalo is in net. Therefore, I expect Rangers power play combinations to also be pretty popular. I have both NYR1 (Trocheck/Panarin/Lafreniere) and NYR2 (Miller/Zibanejad/Perreault) around 15% each. It’s a good spot, but once you add Panarin it puts you at a 19.5K minimum and the Rangers power play has been pretty bad this year. I think if you do it – just go all in and play all 4 of the F/C on the PP. It’s totally fine as an alternative to EDM or BOS, but not my favorite spot of the night
- My favorite spot of the night for all field sizes (considering ownership) is definitely TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel). It was overshadowed by EDM1’s historic performance, but this line just continued to Buzzsaw their opponents by lighting up Columbus the other night. They continue to chug along at a Whopping 4.5 expected goals and 82 shot attempts per 60. Keller/Schmaltz/Crouse have been pretty good defensively – but the Utah goaltending has been a disaster all year. These guys do not have the raw projection or matchup that the Oilers do, but they will come at less than half the ownership and cost about 2K less than EDM1.
- There are a couple other options on this slate that I like and one of them is going to Utah. UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse) has been good – posting a solid 3.16 expected goals and 84 shot attempts per 60. I do not mind going to them at all at 16.9K and 5% ownership. UTA3 (McBain/Carcone/Guenther) also continues to play really well – posting an insane 5.2 expected goals and 74 shot attempts per 60 (albiet in a small sample of 54 minutes) at 13.4K. Tampa also commits plenty of penalties, so a UTA Power Play stack of Schmaltz/Keller/Guenther or Peterka is firmly in play with or without Sergachev. This seems like a strong approach for large fields.
- I also think you can go to the PHI/NYI game. It’s not exciting, but you can certainly go to a larger 5-man stack of Islander or Flyers in order to pay for expensive Oilers, Rangers, Bruins, or Lighting. Both NYI1 (Horvat/Heineman/Drouin) and NYI2 (Barzal/Duclair/Holmstrom) come in under 5% against a struggling goalie in Sam Ersson. However, none of these lines have been particularly good this year. There is more ownership on the Flyers side, but I do not mind going to PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny) at all. They have been excellent all year. PHI2 looks very popular, but I don’t mind going to a PHI PP2 stack of Cates/Michkov/Barkey/Tippett at all. You get access to both the depth lines and 35-40% of the power play time at low combinatorial ownership with high projection against chalky Sorokin.
- If you need some reasonable cheap skaters with lower ownership – here are a few I like: Brink (PHI), Carcone (UTA), Kuraly (BOS), Grundstrom (PHI), Shabanov (NYI), McBain (UTA)
In smaller fields – I think you certainly want to have some access to Edmonton. I have a hard time getting away from one of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Hyman in these formats – if not two. That’s probably were a PHI, NYI, or ANH power play stack become interesting. My preference is PHI PP2 or the Islanders side. The sharp, high-risk play with the most first place equity is probably fading EDM and going to the TB stack or NYR PP though.
In larger fields, I really do like TB1. They continue to just roll everyone and come at much lower ownership than EDM1. I definitely like going to the Islanders or UTA3 at lower ownership on the cheap end. I also think a UTA power play stack is a super low owned route to go tonight. You could also go with a UTA1 or PP/PHI1 balanced build. Both of those lines have been excellent this year and simply not playing anyone from EDM, BOS, or TB will leave you with a very unique build. I’m definitely inclined to fade BOS, but you can go to NYR if you want.
NHL Defense
- Evan Bouchard (7400) is the clear chalk tonight at 30% owned. He might be the highest owned player and he projects well too. Charlie McAvoy (5000), Matthias Ekholm (3800), Vladislav Gavrikov (4300), and Jackson LaCombe (4900) look to all be 15-18% owned. Jake Walman (4700) and Darnell Nurse (4400) look about 12% owned.
- I definitely do not mind Mikhail Sergachev (5700) or Darren Raddysh (6300) as alternatives to the chalkier guys. Jake Trouba (5100) is also in a strong spot to rack up some blocks and shots.
- Ty Emberson (2500) is definitely a reasonable punt. If you want access to EDM – Draisaitl/Nurse/Emberson is a solid way to go.
- Cam York (3900) and Jamie Drysdale (3100) will both see some power play time at lower ownership tonight.
- Pavel Mintyukov (3100), Hampus Lindholm (3000), and JJ Moser (3000) also look like reasonable options on the cheap end tonight.
- You can go to any defensemen in Anaheim’s top 2 pairings. They should all be busy tonight.
Synopsis : It’s not a deep slate for defensemen, but I do not mind going to Sergachev, Trouba, or Raddysh as an alternative to the chalkier guys. There’s plenty of salary savers mentioned above, but my favorites are Mintyukov and Drysdale.
NHL Goalies
- I have Ilya Sorokin (7400, confirmed) as the chalk tonight with Andrei Vasilevsky (8200, unconfirmed) coming in behind him
- The sicko play looks like whomever the Anaheim goalie is (7000)
- Confirmed: Korpisalo (BOS), Ersson (PHI), Sorokin (NYI), Jarry (EDM)
- Unconfirmed: Husso (ANH), Quick (NYR), Vejmelka (UTA), Vasilevsky (TB)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- BOS1 or some form of EDM stack with BOS2 will be the chalk here.
- Going to TB1 is definitely a strong play here. They’ve been every bit as good as EDM1 this year and will come in vastly lower owned against a goalie who has been bad.
- The Rangers power play will get plenty of ownership, but I’d rather just go to EDM
- Bouchard is going to be super chalky. You’re going to need to make a decision on him
- Draisaitl/Nurse/Emberson is a solid 3-man stack if you want affordable access to EDM
- The PHI/NYI game definitely provides some value here. Larger stacks of this game are pretty strong.
- I really like UTA1, UTA3, and PHI1 as lines that have been excellent this year.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – you can go the BOS1 route, but I prefer to either go with TB or some form of EDM stack. Tampa is clearly the high leverage pivot at a fraction of the ownership with similar upside, but lower probability.
In larger fields – I really like this UTA/TB game. I think all of TB1, UTA1, and UTA3 look like very strong plays. A larger PHI stack – particularly a PP2 stack – or a NYI stack definitely makes sense as a way to play EDM. You have to be careful with the Oilers ownership though. It’s going to be massive. I think you can also just go to an Anaheim Power Play stack with or without the Anaheim goalie. You have to play Kreider to get the low ownership though.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm