Welcome to Monday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 5 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk tonight will without a doubt be some variation of DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Bourque). I have it about even between Johnston/Robertson/Benn and the regular DAL1 with the more expensive Matt Duchene (5000) slightly lower owned than Jamie Benn (4000). Benn is cheaper than Bourque and on the power play – so it will be an easy way for folks to think they’re doing something different. Dallas is facing the dreadful Vancouver Canucks and have won 8 in a row. Whatever variation of DAL1 you choose – you’re looking at around 80% Cumulative ownership. This is the best on-paper spot, but you are paying a steep price in ownership. FWIW 4 other teams (CAR, COL, TOR, CBJ) have a total of at least within 0.25 goals of Dallas. This is the first big decision on the slate.
- My first ownership run has NYR1 (Miller/Zibanejad/Perreault) and NYR2 (Trocheck/Lafreniere/Cuylle) as the chalk pairings with DAL1 at 17% and 13% respectively. I’m not really sure that’s where I think that much ownership lands in the end – but we’ll see as the day progresses. Columbus is cerrtainly a poor defensive team and the Rangers do have Adam Fox back to move the puck for them. This isn’t really a power play spot – so I do slightly prefer NYR2 just from a talent perspective. I think CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake) gets up there in ownership to around 10-12% as well.
- The obvious alternative to DAL1 that the field will gravitate to is COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Landeskog). I have them at 15% – but I could see moving them even higher. They are facing a reeling Kings team that had allowed 6 and 8 goals in the two games before shutting out Calgary – and just fired head coach Jim Hiller. COL1 is obviously the best line in hockey, they have a strong total, and this game is likely to be played at a fast pace. I have no problem going to COL – but the obvious pairings are going to be DAL2 (Duchene/Benn/Steel) and CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake). You’ll probably need to do something different.
- PHI1 (Zegras/Konecny/Dvorak) is also coming in with a fair amount of ownership at 13%. They’re facing this Toronto team that is pretty dreadful and whose GM essentially said were waiving the white flag on the season. It’s not really a power play spot for PHI – and that game is going to be played at a dreadful pace – so I may reduce that ownership number here. We also have CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment) around the same number. I think both of these lines are fine, but I prefer CBJ1. However – sigh – I think we have to look at TOR1 (Matthews/Nylander/McMann) at 6% ownership. I think you can definitely go to a Leafs power play stack too. If you’re going to COL route – I think TOR3 (Roy/McMann/Robertson) is certainly in the discussion for a cheap line. We have a decent 3.5 total on the Leafs – so you can really go to anybody on their team.
- Outside of that – the two lines that catch my eye as sharp plays are CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov) and LAK1 (Kopitar/Panarin/Kempe) at 6% ownership each. CAR1 is always a strong play when the two depth lines will be owned, they have the same total as Dallas, and will be playing at a faster pace. I will continue to be an advocate of playing lines vs COL1 – especially when the Avs are on the road and cannot get them matched up away from the opposing 1st line. They just are not good defensively, These Panarin/Kempe lines are – big shock – generating a ton of shots, and the Kings have been playing higher event hockey overall since the trade. Maybe they get a new coach bump from their latest re-tread hire in DJ Smith. That seems unlikely though. The Kings lines could also totally change so keep an eye out for that. I suppose SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/McMann) is also worth a mention due to PP correlation – but it’s a dreadful spot.
- If we are looking for cheaper lines to go with COL1 – besides what I already mentioned – I think the following are worth considering: CBJ3 (Coyle/Sillinger/Olivier), PHI2 (Michkov/Cates/Brink), TOR3 (Roy/McMann/Robertson), LAK2 (Byfield/Moore/Laferriere), VAN3 (Bluegar/Garland/Ohgren). TOR3 and VAN3 would be my favorites
- I’m pretty sure sims are going to love the Canucks tonight. VAN3 actually leads them in ice time (per Leftwinglock) since the break at 24%. The next closest line is VAN1 (Pettersson/DeBrusk/Kane) at 14%. The second power play has also played more than the first. I would guess this is due to the Canucks absolutely wanting to unload Conor Garland, Teddy Bluegar, and Evander Kane before the deadline on Friday. I don’t mind any of their lines – but VAN3 or Kane/Garland/Ohgren are my favorites here.
In smaller fields – I think you have to Decide on Dallas. You could play some DAL1 or DAL PP combination – but be aware that any combination of their power play guys will not be unique unless you do something like drop Robertson. I think you can play them because there are some strong cheap lines to play with them that have no ownership. A really strong way to play Dallas would be to use three defensemen and play something like Johnston/Robertson/Heiskanen/Lindell/Harley. We’ve seen that type of build win the $333 a few times on smaller slates with super chalky COL or EDM. Otherwise – Dallas is famous for cutting minutes in a blowout, so a game stack is in play. I want to strongly emphasize this though – you will create zero leverage by playing the entire Dallas power play – or 4 PP guys and Bourque – as a 5-man stack.
I think COL1 is also fine. VAN3 and TOR3 look solid on the cheap end. CAR1 and some kind of VAN stack is the clear sharp play, but I could see going to something weird like COL2 and CBJ1 as well. Just jamming in two power play correlated lines has a solid win rate on these smaller slates.
In large fields, it’s hard for me to recommend that much ownership on Dallas. You could go there if you do a full game stack I suppose. I do like the ceiling on COL1 for sure. It’s hard for me to see a line with Kopitar keeping up with MacKinnon and Co. I definitely like going to COL2 there as well. LAK1, TOR1 and CAR1 are the clear sharp plays here. You can definitely throw two PP correlated lines together – but 3-3-1-1 does not have a good reputation on slates of this size. I think larger stacks are in play for sure. Some kind of CAR1/CAR2 hybrid stack or a TOR Power Play stack both seem like strong ideas.
NHL Defense
- I have Zach Werenski (8000), Miro Heiskanen (6300) and Adam Fox (5700) as the chalk guys at 17-20% each. Morgan Reilly (4300), Filip Hronek (4100), Esa Lindell (3700), and Brandt Clarke (5400) look like they’re 12-15% each.
- Cale Makar (7800) is obviously a strong pivot away from Werenski with or without other guys from COL.
- I suppose Thomas Harley (5500) is ok at his lower 8% ownership. Multiple Dallas defensemen is definitely a strong way to go – especially in the $333. I could even see going with 3 of them. It’s not a very strong defense pool on the low end tonight
- I really like Shayne Gostisbehere – and all the Carolina defensemen tbh. Vince Dunn (4800) and Brandon Montour (5000) seem ok too.
- I also like the PHI defensemen. Jamie Drysdale (3700) has finally started to come on after showing promise for a few years. Rasmus Ristolainen (3400) and Travis Sanheim (3800) are both cheap and will play a pile of minutes.
- Drew Doughty (3300, if he plays), Adam Larsson (3300), Sean Walker (3200), K’Andre Miller (3100), Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Joel Edmundson (2700), Marcus Pettersson (2600), and Tom Willander (2500) look like decent plays on the cheap end tonight.
I think the chalk guys are all fine. I’m probably not going to Hronek or Clarke. They seem correctly priced. I think it’s totally fine to play 2-3 DAL defensemen in a stack. Makar and Gostisbehere are probably my top plays. I really like Walker, Miller, Doughty, and Willander on the cheap end. Morgan Reilly is definitely underpriced and looks like the strongest play on the board for all fields. Ugh.
NHL Goalies
- Jake Oettinger (8400), Brandon Bussi (7900) and Igor Shesterkin (7600) look like the chalk to me at around 15% each. I have Wedgewood at 10%
- I like Elvis Merzlikins (7800) against what seems like a pretty overvalued Rangers offense. I like Darth Vladar (7400) against the Pitiful Leafs as well.
- Whomever starts for Seattle (7500) and Los Angeles (7200) probably have the highest saves upside. Laniken is someone the sims will love – but Dallas is not a high shot volume team. You’re solely relying on a shutout.
- Confirmed: Merzlikins (CBJ), Stolarz (TOR), Shesterkin (NYR), Vladar (PHI)
- Unconfirmed: Grubauer (SEA), Wedgewood (COL), Oettinger (DAL), Laniken (VAN), Bussi (CAR), Forsberg (LAK)
Stacks and Theory
- The data says that you can definitely carry more ownership on these smaller slates. I’d say as much as 120-125% is fine in smaller fields and 100-110% is a fine ceiling in large fields. When you’re making decisions – remember that DAL1 or Robertson/Johnston with Benn or Duchene probably carries a minimum of 80% ownership for 3 guys. You probably need to raise the ownership ceiling to 135 for Dallas – but that’s 55% ownership for your remaining 6 guys. I think multiple Dallas defensemen – and not just Heiskanen/Lindell – is a strong way to reduce ownership.
- I’m probably staying away from DAL2 tonight. I think there’s too may other strong cheap plays with TOR3, PHI2, and VAN3 out there.
- I think it’s fine to go to COL1. Their ownership is reasonable when you consider Dallas carries almost twice as much. Just don’t go to CAR2 or DAL2 with them.
- This is a great slate to make some very sharp plays in smaller fields though. A huge chunk of the field is going to be Dallas and Colorado. You can have a chance to pass them by simply playing anyone else.
- I really do like CAR2 tonight. They’re the toughest fade for me. They’ve played so well.
- CAR1, LAK1, and TOR1/PP look like the sharp plays tonight.
- I think larger stacks are probably fine tonight, but we do have 5 teams with totals at or above 3.5 and nobody at 4. That tells me that it could easily be a better 4/3/1 or 3/3/1/1 night – even though the latter has a poor reputation on 5 gamers. Every slate is different though.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think you can go to Dallas but I wouldn’t. You will probably need to be unorthodox to keep it at or under 135. COL1 seems ok too. However, there will be so much ownership on the Dallas and Colorado power play guys that I think there’s merit in simply going any other direction. If you’re right it will give you a chance to jump the field.
In larger fields – I’m probably fading Dallas. It’s pretty scary though. I really do like LAK1, CAR1/2, and TOR1. This Matthews/Nylander/McMann combination has historically been bad, but it’s a 40 minute sample and PHI1 is lousy defensively. I think going to COL2 is reasonable as well. There’s a lot that’s in play outside of DAL1 and COL1 – which will eat a ton of ownership despite their totals not really pulling away from 3 other teams per our modeling. I really like the cheap Carolina guys, Reilly, Ekman-Larsson, and Makar tonight. I just don’t love the higher end defense overall though. It’s a good night to be contrarian.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 1 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm