NHL DFS Overview – November 10th, 2025

Welcome to another week of NHL DFS! There’s 4 games on top tonight, so let’s get into it!

This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!

*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.

This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day

Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.

NHL DFS Lines

I suspect the chalk here is EDM2 (Draisaitl/Roslovic/Podkolzin) at 25-30% in large field and a bit higher in smaller fields. EDM1 (McDavid/Savoie/Mangiapane) probably comes in at 17-20%. The prices is very fair and they’re basically in the best matchup you can get – at home against this Columbus team that play incredibly fast is pathetic defensively. They deserve the ownership. I expect the field will just drop McDavid on top of EDM2 at a high rate. I would expect folks to use Glass/Gritsyuk with EDM PP stacks.
VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Saad) and EDM1 (McDavid/Mangiapane/Savoie look like the chalk secondary lines at 18-20%. It’s possible that EDM1 suppresses the ownership on VGK2 – and some of that redistributes – but IDK.
NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Noesen) looks like the second most popular primary line at probably 18-20%. They are creating a ton of offense (74 shots/60), but only 2.6 expected goals/60. The Islanders certainly help teams create high danger chances, so I wouldn’t be super concerned. It’s very easy to fit them with EDM1 or VGK2 and still get good defensemen or one premium non-Werenski defensemen.
I suspect all of VGK1 (Eichel/Marner/Barbashev), NJ2 (Hischier/Meier/Mercer), NYR2 (Trochek/Panarin/Lafreniere), NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista) all come in around 12-15%. The Islanders have been a disaster defensively and their golatending has been shaky. I suspect NJ is the second most popular team tonight. However, EDM1 is going to put enough ownership on the lines in the 14K range that I suspect it flattens things out between the above lines.
The Rangers have been absolutely awful at home. This is well documented. I do like them tonight though. The Return of Vincent Trochek may be just what Panarin needs to get going. They also called up their top prospect in Gabe Perrault. He will be on NYR2 with Zibanejad and JT Miller. They’re creating quality chances, but they’re not scoring. This has long been an issue with Zibanejad lines, but not Trochek lines. NYR3 (Cuylle/Laba/Raddysh) is also an interesting line with some talented one-way players if you need someone cheap to pair with EDM1, NJ PP, or VGK PP.
Our Models love the Predators once again. Therefore, I will reiterate this point – they have nobody to distribute the puck to their shooters. They have a been a bit better lately, but they still really struggle to create offense. NSH1 is fine, but I prefer NSH2 or even NSH3 (Haula/Wood/Bunting). The matchups get better once you get Fox and Gavrikov off the ice, but the Rangers have allowed by far the least high danger chances at even strength*. I don’t really care about PP correlation with the Preds, but I’m not playing a NSH PP stack without Haula (3000). He’s the only real distributor they have on this team.
CBJ2 (Fantilli/Voronkov/Marchenko) did not miss a beat after swapping centers. Our sheets like them quite a bit – and I do as well. This game is going to be fast and I probably prefer the Columbus side here for ownership purposes. Stu Skinner shut out the Rangers at the garden (like everyone seems to), but has basically been trash in every other game. CBJ1 (Monahan/Johnson/Wood) also seems fine if you need a cheaper line. I have no idea what Miles Wood is doing on an NHL first line though. CBJ4 (Del Bel Belluz/Jenner/Chinakov) projects incredibly well again. However, be aware that Del Bel Belluz and Chinakov only played 8 minutes each (sigh..) while Jenner moved around and played 15. You can play them, but realize how thin it is. This is my favorite team on the board. There may be some changes to the lineup with Olivier, Wood, Sillinger, and Monahan all questionable. So stay tuned. I’ll update my thoughts before game time. There should not be any changes to CBJ2 (the Marchenko line) though.
Our models are pretty bearish on FLA tonight. They generate chances, but it’s mostly been the PP and the Marchand line so far.
I’m pretty dismayed that the Islanders moved Barzal off the first line. That line was absolutely crushing. I think NYI1 (Horvat/Heineman/Palmieri), NYI2 (Barzal/Holmstrom/Drouin), and NYI3 (Pageau/Lee/Duclair) are all in play. NYI3 is interesting. Duclair used to be good, so maybe he can bounce back on this line. NYI1 is their best line, but I like NYI3 quite a bit too. NYI2 projects the best, but there are no shooters on that line. I do worry about their numbers.
If I’m playing NJ, I’d probably just go with a PP stack. There’s enough cheap lines I like tonight to make it work. It’s worth noting that the NJ PP gets significantly worse with Luke Hughes running it instead of Hamilton. I think VGK1 is in a strong spot tonight. So is FLA2 (Rodriguez/Reinhart/Verhaege). VGK1 has been awesome so far and probably gets the coveted matchup with this tire fire of a line in FLA1. FLA2 has created almost 4 expected goals and 77 shot attempts per 60. VGK2 is good defensively, but not elite.

Synopsis: In smaller fields, I think you just play EDM2. Your choice weather you play McDavid on top of them or not. However, there is certainly merit to playing NJ1/VGK2 or EDM1. I’d probably consider NYI2, NYI3, and CBJ1 as pivots away from VGK2/EDM1 in this format. In larger fields, I prefer the more balanced build. I think CBJ2 is an awesome play. All the Islanders lines, All the Rangers lines, a NJ PP stack, VGK1, and NSH2 are some of my favorites there. NYR3 and NYI3 are my favorite cheap lines of the slate. FLA/VGK doesn’t look great on our sheets, but the top 2 lines for both teams look fine by expected goals. I’m probably sucking it up and coming in under the field on EDM. If they don’t get off to a good start, none of these lines will stay together. I also just like a bunch of other spots.

NHL F/C One-Offs

The most popular one-offs here are likely to be Connor McDavid (8800), Leon Draisaitl (8300), and Filip Forsberg (6900). Expect both Edmonton guys to be around 30% and Forsberg to be around 20%. I don’t mind Forsberg as a one-off at all.
I do think Jack Roslovic (4300) is a reasonable one-off. He gets you some access to EDM, he’s net front on the PP, and he can easily get there with the other two guys posting a median score. You could say the same for Stefan Noesen (3000) or Brandon Saad (2700). However, I prefer Ivan Barbashev (3800) – especially if you want a close shave (old guy joke). He’s been shooting quite a bit and getting quality chances since they put Marner up on the top line.
I think Artemi Panarin (7500) is a pretty strong one-off here at lower ownership. I suspect that the return of Trochek will be a big boost to him. That line has always been good – and their best scoring line. Kirill Marchenko (6600) is also a strong option – as is anybody from CBJ1. So is Bo Horvat (7200) playing net front on the PP against this NJ team that does a piss poor job controlling the puck in front of the net.
We have plenty of one-off in the 4-5K tier tonight. Jonathan Marchesseault (4500), Boone Jenner (3700), Anders Lee (4900), Kent Johnson (3700), and Steven Stamkos (4200) are all guys are projections like. You could also go to Ryan O’Reilly as the net front guy on the NSH PP. However, the Rangers don’t really commit many penalties and the NSH PP sucks.,
Matthew Savoie (2500) is likely to replace Nugent-Hopkins on the EDM PP. He’s the min priced PP guy that people will one-off. Stefan Noesen probably has the net front spot on the NJ PP. He is a way better one-off than Savoie.
Noah Laba (2600), Matthew Wood (2600), and Michael Bunting (2800) all look like strong one-offs from #TeamNonPP

Synopsis: If you want to play the super expensive one-offs, go ahead. That’s not part of my strategy, but on this smaller slate I think it’s probably fine. I prefer Draisaitl among the EDM guys, but I think going to Panarin, Forsberg, Horvat, or Marchenko makes sense as well. There are a lot of cheap one-offs tonight though. I wouldn’t look at Savoie as some must-play – even in small fields. There are a ton of pivots off him, but I think Roslovic or Barbashev are my two favorite one-offs tonight. Nobody’s going to play Barbashev solo – because he’s not on the PP (rolls eyes) – but he’s been great recently.

NHL Defense

Evan Bouchard (6200) and Jake Walman (4900) will be the most popular defensemen. I expect Bouchard to be around 22-25% in large field and around 30% in smaller fields. I suspect Andy Fox (5800) and Luke Hughes (5000) will be the alternatives people go to. They’re probably both 15-18%.
I do think it’s worth talking about Zach Werenski (8000). His ceiling is definitely a bit lower now that he’s likely to play more with the Monahan/Johnson line as opposed to the Fantilli/Marchenko line. I do not feel as bound to play him with CBJ2 as I did when that was the first line, but he’s still a solid play. Expect a lower Assist output playing with a worse line though. He’s still the best play on the board at 12% though.
I expect this CBJ/EDM game to be quite active as far as shot attempts go. Darnell Nurse (4600) looks like an elite play and the clear alternative to the popular Walman, Nurse has been known to do his fair share of shooting as well. Same goes for Matthias Ekholm (3800), but he’s less offensively inclined. I like playing him to get a piece of EDM1 similar to Roslovic.
Ivan Provorov (3600) and Denton Mateyechuk (3200) aren’t really offensively inclined, but they do block shots and are completely fine to play with a CBJ stack. Either of them are great values with just the block bonus and an assist. They both have reasonable chances at it considering their 20+ minute roles. Damon Severson (3000) is another guy our model likes. He’s more of a shooter though. Higher ceiling, lower floor. These 3 are just cheap fringe guys, but I definitely like them.
playing Nurse and Walman together – especially without other expensive Oilers – seems like a solid way to go. They can both create offense and move the puck. I don’t care that they’re on seperate pairings now. Alec Regula is not sticking on second pair.
It is absolutely viable to play Werenski, Nurse, Walman, or Bouchard in the UTIL tonight. It’s a small slate and they project well enough.
Tony Deangelo is someone our model absolutely loves tonight. I’ve talked about him before. Tsar Alexander Romanov (3000) and Vladislav Gavrikov (3500) also look pretty good. Noah Hanafin (4200) also seems fine. He’s got a solid 20+ minute role playing with the top 2 Vegas lines.

Synopsis: The chalk guys are fine in small field. They are the best plays, but I wouldn’t rule out Deangelo, Ekholm, or Nurse given their projections. I think the non-PP guys are very viable tonight. There’s a huge drop off in projection after Bouchard, Walman, Fox, and Werenski. Nurse, Deangelo, Ekholm, Romanov, and the Columbus guys all look strong in larger fields. Werenski is the clear play there. He’s underowned despite the concerns I have with him and you can put him in the UTIL if you want.

NHL Goalies

Igor Shesterkin (8200) is very likely the chalk at 25-30%. Nashville sucks. I get it. Jacob Markstrom (7900) and Akira Schmid (8200) look like they’ll be around 17-20% each.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Juuse Saros (7200) up in that ownership range as well. The Rangers have been awful at home.
I kind of like Stuart Skinner (8400) tonight if I’m not playing Columbus. He’s been terrible, but the shot volume should be there.
Jet Greaves (7000) is the clear leverage play and for true sickos.

Synopsis: Play whoever you want

NHL Stacks and Theory

EDM2 or PP/VGK2 is the clear chalk at the moment. I expect NJ1/EDM1 to be a really popular build as well. The real lynchpin to building tonight is what you’re doing with the Oilers. If you don’t play any Oilers or Devils, you can basically do whatever you want. It is worth noting that if EDM does not get off to a good start, they’ll just nuke the lines and come out with new ones after 1 period.
I think CBJ stacks are a really strong play here. This game is going to be played with a ton of pace – and while that favors the Oilers’ speed it also helps Columbus. CBJ2 will be my highest owned line of the night. I think you can play them with or without Werenski. He may end up playing with the Monahan line more (if that line is even together at game time).
Our models and sheets like the Islanders quite a bit here as well. I do too. Our projections like NYI2 the best – and I tend to agree. However, NYI3, NYI1, and a PP stack are all options. Barzal is their best player and whatever line he plays on usually posts the best expected numbers, but I suspect that Barzal and Horvat play together in the 3rd period if the game is close. Therefore, don’t be afraid to pair them.
Our models like the Predators, but the sheets do not. That game’s pace sucks. However, Igor is chalk and the Rangers defense falls off as you get farther down. I prefer NSH2 or NSH3 because they’re cheaper and NSH1 looks too high owned for my taste. I’m fine with a Forsberg one-off though.
A Forsberg one-off is firmly in play. I just prefer Panarin, Marchenko, or Horvat. Be aware that one-offs will be much more popular at C than W tonight due to EDM2 being a three-wing lineup. I think this depresses ownership on all the non-EDM wings and increases it on centers. I really like Barbashev and Roslovic as one-offs as well. I think a one-off wing is a way to create some leverage here. If you need a C one-off just use one of the net front guys not named Hertl (sorry Tommy – I still love you buddy)
VGK1 (Eichel/Marner/Barbashev) is an interesting line here. They have been Great together in a small sample. I really like them tonight – and I would not drop Barbashev. He’s shooting a ton.
The Rangers are definitely due positive regression. I think NYR1 (Trochek/Panarin/Lafreniere) is a pretty strong play – even at ownership. VGK1 (Eichel/Marner/Barbashev) also looks strong on the more expensive end. They should fall in a bit behind NJ1 and NYR1 in ownership.
This is definitely a slate where you can play three defensemen. Werenski in the UTIL is especially viable. This will be a highly leveraged way to go – and I think playing three EDM defensemen is one of the best ways you can stack them in large field. We have 4 of them projected well by point/$.
Net Front PP guys (I know of): Horvat, Noesen, O’Reilly, Cuylle, Johnson, Hertl

NHL Synopsis

For smaller fields – I think you can just play EDM2. That’s the better NHL line. Add McDavid on top, or don’t. Either way is fine. I think playing Draisaitl/Roslovic/Nurse/Walman makes a lot of sense though. NJ1 is very viable as a primary line as well – but don’t overlook VGK1. That line has been great offensively and FLA1’s defense has been truly offensive. FLA1 is also in play as a secondary line for me. They’ve been great so far and expected goals like them. I think you can just eat the chalk at defense with any of Bouchard, Walman,

In larger fields, I think there’s a ton of ways to approach this slate. I think I’m just going to get way over on Columbus and under on EDM. That game is just going to be so fast and the defensemen for CBJ all look good. NJ is fine, but I also like the Islanders quite a bit. NYI1 is probably their best line, but all 3 are in play. I do not like the Predators very much, but I’ll likely suck it up and play the depth lines. I like NYR2 and 3 quite a bit. I really like VGK1, but I may just end up with a Bunch of Barbashev one-offs. He’s too cheap. Him and Noesen look like phenomenal one offs. There’s two strong ways to create leverage tonight construction-wise: Werenski or an EDM defensemen in the UTIL and/or a one-off Wing instead of Center. These EDM2 lineups are all going to have at least one one-off center or McDavid and a center in a two-man.

*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:

https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm