Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on Ollie Gordon II and Bucky Irving (RB) from either side of the OKST/KU and ORE/UW games respectively. Both are projected for over 30% ownership. At the quarterback position, Jalen Milroe leads the way with 20.85% ownership. However, due to Milroe’s price, ownership is inflated on cheaper QBs to pair with him like Luke Altmyer and Hudson Card. The spotlight at wide receiver is on Isaiah Williams (WR, IL) with 33.65% ownership against UMD. His projected median of 17.38 and a salary of $5500 underline the balance he brings to the roster, making him a strong small field and cash play.
- OKST and Texas A&M look like the chalk stacks given the high ownership across their teams. However, the ownership is heavily concentrated on RB/WR, so playing the QBs as well could be a good way to differentiate the stack. Additionally, the ORE/UW passing games are going to be under-owned relative to their ceiling and deserve GPP consideration.
- Ollie Gordon II (RB, OKST) and Bucky Irving (RB, ORE) are clearly the chalk with ownership percentages at 41.28% and 32.65% respectively, and high median projections. However, Le’Veon Moss, Dillon Johnson, and Kaden Feagin have just as much upside at significantly less ownership. Similarly, Jeshaun Jones makes a strong pivot off of Isaiah Williams at the receiver position.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: Emory Jones
RB: Ollie Gordon II
WR1: Isaiah Williams
WR2: Ainias Smith
Flex: Bucky Irving
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Jordan Travis
RB: Braelon Allen
WR1: Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR2: Jeshaun Jones
Flex: Rome Odunze
DFS Stack Considerations
University of Washington (UW)
Texas A&M (TAM)
University of Tennessee (TENN)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
While it’s tempting to go after the high ownership players given their projected outputs, incorporating a mix of value plays can differentiate lineups. Players like Jeshaun Jones (WR, UMD), Devin Mockobee (RB, PUR), and Jason Bean (QB, KU) have decent projections and could serve as contrarian pivots or leverage from more popular options. In high-total games you can also consider full offensive stacks. For example, with Dillon Johnson and Jalen McMillan both popular you can balance ownership by adding a low-owned Michael Penix Jr. In summary, while certain games and players are drawing a lot of attention, the key to success might lie in striking the right balance between popular picks and underrated gems.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.