Welcome to the CFB DFS Triple Option here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the CFB DFS slate. This article is NOT used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Bucky Irving (RB, ORE) is the standout at the running back position, with the highest ownership on the slate at 45.36% and a strong median projection of 28.35 against ASU. At he quarterback spot, Donovan Smith (UH) is popping with projected ownership of 34.46% against OKST. Notably, Smith’s opponent OKST continues to allow massive fantasy games to opposing QBs. At the wide receiver position, Elijah Sarratt (JMU) is commanding substantial attention with 38.18% ownership and a median projection of 18.63. Both WRs from JMU are underpriced relative to their upside as well as the OKST pass-catchers on the other side.
- OKST and JMU look to be the primary choices for stacking based on the high ownership of their players. Notably, seven of the ten highest-owned players on the slate are from these teams. Additionally, Donovan Smith is playing OKST meaning game stacks could also be popular. However, teams like OU, ORE, USC and both sides of Clemson/UNC are under-owned relative to their ceiling and should be considered for GPPs.
- For those looking to diversify their lineups, players like Daijun Edwards (RB, UGA), Jawhar Jordan (RB, UL), and Jacolby George have ownership projected below 10% but still boast high ceilings. Furthermore, spending up at multiple WR spots today will inherently give you a contrarian roster construction.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
CFB Cash Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
QB: DonovanSmith
RB: Bucky Irving
WR1: At least one of Reggie Brown/Elijah Sarrat
WR2: At least one of Rashod Owens/Brennan Pressley/Leon Johnson III
Flex: Omarion Hampton
CFB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
QB: Sam Hartman
RB: Jawhar Jordan
WR1: Troy Franklin or Tez Walker
WR2: Jacolby George
Flex: Ja’Quinden Jackson
DFS Stack Considerations
OU (University of Oklahoma)
ND (University of Notre Dame)
USC (University of Southern California)
CFB DFS Final Thoughts
Today seems largely about finding pivots. The popular roster construction is going to be high-end RBs paired with midrange WRs. Therefore, keeping this build but rostering lower-owned players can be a way to differentiate your lineup in large tournaments. Additionally, there are several high-total games that are carrying low ownership. Focusing heavily on USC/UCLA and CLEM/UNC could be a profitable strategy. Much of the ownership today is on players from the late afternoon games. Therefore, targeting lower-owned/high upside teams or game environments particularly in the noon set of games could be a strong strategy in GPPs.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.