Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Pablo Lopez with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Twins, Reds and Red Sox. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Seth Lugo and Bobby Miller.
- Pablo Lopez rates as the top pitcher in the models but will have incredibly high ownership. However, Alex Cobb projects fairly close to Lopez at less than half the ownership. After Cobb, Seth Lugo and Lance Lynn rate as the best of the rest.
- The Guardians rate as the top stack in the models and will have minuscule ownership. The Nationals, Twins, Mets and Diamondbacks rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Pablo Lopez, Patrick Sandoval, Osvaldo Bido
Pablo Lopez looks like he warrants the ownership tonight with both the highest True AVG and median projection. Sandoval and Bido are interesting SP2 options in large field GPPs. However, the main consideration with them is fading Padres and Dodgers who will likely be popular pivots off of the Braves.
Zeros: Michael Soroka, Graham Ashcraft, Jose Berrios
Michael Soroka has the worst True AVG on the slate but plays for a championship contender. We often see a team’s success trickle over into the field believing that teams pitchers are better than they are and we can take advantage of this misconception. Ashcraft is awful but people will be hesitant to attack him with a subpar Nationals squad. Likewise, people will likely avoid picking on the always volatile Berrios with White Sox
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Pablo Lopez
1B: Brandon Belt
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Carlos Correa
OF: Jarren Duran
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Alex Cobb
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Tim Anderson
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Luis Robert Jr.
DFS Stack Considerations
Guardians
Nationals
Twins
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Lopez and Guardians makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (WAS, NYM, and ARI). In large field the models support fading Bobby Miller and lowering exposure to Braves . In addition to the top stacks, the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Giants also look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Lopez paired with one of Miller/Lugo/Cobb in the midrange. General roster construction is going to focus on Lopez with cheap Twins/Red Sox while paying up for ATL/CIN/TOR/LAD.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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