Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 15

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

ChALK DFS Plays:

• Kyren Williams (38.98%)
• Christian McCaffery (31.42%)
• Ezekiel Elliot (30.01%)
• Antonio Gibson (29.97%)
• Jayden Reed (26.27%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Kyren Williams

Kyren Williams is far and away the best option in this price tier. No other player in his range comes close to his median/ceiling combo. Furthermore, his top finish% is three times as high as the next option due in large part to the Rams having the second-highest implied team total. However, if you need a pivot Deebo Samuel is a price pivot as well as direct leverage to chalk CMC.

Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffery rates out as the top spend up option in regards to projection, however, there is absolutely no reason he should be six times as owned as Tyreek Hill. While he is slightly more expensive, Tyreek seems like the clear GPP play if spending up to this tier.

Ezekiel Elliot

Ezekiel Elliot will indeed be chalk in the year 2023. Rhamondre Stevenson is out for NE and the matchup isn’t particularly difficult. Moreover, despite a low implied team total the Patriots utilize Zeke pretty heavily in the pass game which boosts his floor. James Cook is a potential pivot at the RB position, as well as Rashee Rice or Amari Cooper in the FLEX.

Antonio Gibson

Antonio GIbson is in line for an increased workload due to Brian Robinson Jr. being out for this game. Similar to Zeke Elliot, Gibson sees a lot of passing work which helps boosts his floor. His passing game involvement should also help make him relatively game-script proof as well. Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford are potential pivots at the RB position.

Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed is another chalk option that is a beneficiary of injury. Christian Watson is out for the Packers which should even further solidify the role and targets for Reed. However, of all of the high owned options mentioned Reed is the only one who is not the top play at their price range. Drake London and Curtis Samuel both look like strong GPP pivots at significantly lower ownership.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

This week is tough considering most of the high owned plays look like they warrant the ownership. None of them are necessarily “bad” chalk, but you will certainly need to be mindful of how much ownership you are eating. Based on ownership, a popular roster construction is going to include RB in the FLEX spot. Therefore, it may be beneficial to go heavier at WR plays in the FLEX instead. Furthermore, playing an off the board stack is likely going to be a priority today to build in differentiation. Players such as Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Chuba Hubbard, and Drake London stand out as pivots for GPPs.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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