Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
This is a very tough week where there isn’t a ton of gamestacking environments with pricing that matches. Did my best to dig deep, so here are the key environments I think you can focus in on to access a ceiling on Sunday –
NYG/PHI
- This game has a total of only 43.5 and frankly, I think this is a bit too low. Last week I wrote up the Eagles and how their prices were very friendly, they just needed to be pushed. Well, they still delivered with essentially holding a lead that whole game agains the Vikings. Now we get Jalen Hurts without AJ Brown, so we can expect concentrated passing game work through Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
- I wanted to write this game up first because I think this is a game where PHI obviously makes adjustments from their loss two weeks back to these Giants at MetLife. They looked good last week against a much tougher and unpredictable defensive unit and with the Giants down some starters in an already abysmal secondary, hard not to think the same rules apply here. If the Eagles get pushed, they have a lot of upside at their prices.
- With the Giants on the other side, Dart and Skattebo have lit NY on fire. The Giants have had an absolute brutal schedule and when they made the move to Dart, they’ve not only been competitive. You can argue, that they’ve been an average to slightly above average team. Now… am I saying the Giants are a team to fear? Put a futures bet in on? Stack every week? No, absolutely not. But they definitely have the offensive weapons to put pressure on the Eagles once again.
- From a schematic perspective, both teams are playing an above average amount of man coverage and are at the 2nd/3rd highest rate in the league, which means these receiving options will have opportunities to possibly separate for a big play. Dart gets Slayton back and I’m not saying Slayton is some elite wide out, but he is certainly an upgrade from Hyatt and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. He gives them a field stretching option that they missed the last few weeks. You can absolutely attack this PHI secondary. On the PHI side, Smith and Goedert are reliable man beaters. At these price tags, we just need 1-2 plays to put them in optimal consideration.
- Now the running backs…. Saquon has lost me a ton of money and I’m not thrilled about the usage he’s been seeing. Maybe they figure this out over the BYE next week, but based on what we’ve seen and his price tag. I’m more than likely out on Saquon this week. He’s sort of priced in no man’s land between some high-upside options in the $6K range (not to mentioned Achane is $300 less in a spot where him and Waddle will be the only reliable targets). The only saving grace is that the Giants are surrendering 5.23 yards per attempt which is 3rd worst in the league. On the other side, I think Skattebo is a pretty strong play if you can work him into some lineups but don’t love where he’s priced compared to others.
- So…. this game has a lot to like. Two offenses where you can be confident knowing where the ball may go. Maybe slightly more uncertainty on the Giants side with Slayton back, but I think this is a game you can stack from either side. I believe this game gets into the back-and-forth you need and stacking from either side makes sense as you can tell yourself a gameflow story that can get there.
- Lastly, an interesting roster construction nugget. Build a PHI stack, take Skattebo and one Giants pass catcher…. swap Hurts to Dart and save yourself $1,100 to spend elswhere. Dart feels like a pretty high upside play here at his price.
DEN/DAL
- This game isn’t sneaky and If you target this game you will absolutely have company. I do think it’s important to think through how to really attack this game and the upside we can extract from it. First from the Dallas side of things, they have Ceedee back, Dak has his full compliment of weapons; Javonte Williams has been very good, Ferguson has been an incredible red zone threat, and oh yeah, that George Pickens guy. This is BY FAR the most threatening passing attack they’ve seen so far this year.
- On the Denver side, this offense is still way too cheap but I will say…. Starting with Nix and Sutton is obviously strong, Hellen Keller would be able to see that this week. But, the secondary pieces on this team like Mims, Franklin, Engram, all feel like they don’t get “enough” work for you to feel good about adding a second piece. Not saying you shouldn’t, but I think this is an excellent opportunity to fade these pieces if you feel that any will come in high owned…. if they don’t? This is an excellent matchup for any receiving core and now that this Cowboys team is mixing in some man coverage, there is upside.
- Hellen Keller can also see that this is a spot where both teams can probably push each other. I think there isn’t a wrong way to go here. On the Cowboys side, I think picking one of Lamb, Pickens, or Ferguson is probably viable in your one off pool and obviously in play if you’re stacking here. My preferred route here is to stack the Denver side with a Dallas bring back. The pricing on Dallas’s receiving core makes them tough to stack up with Dak with the lack of value on this slate.
- There’s also some reason to be cautious about stacking here. I do see some paths where this game stinks and not many of the pieces get there. Firstly, just like Denver hasn’t seen a passing attack of this caliber, this is also BY FAR the best pass rush and secondary that Dallas has seen. Even last week, with the success the Giants had, outside of a few throws to Wan’Dale Robinson and that screen score to Skattebo, the Giants moved the ball on a lot of broken plays and forcing Dart out of the pocket. Here is who Dallas has faced and my thoughts on their defenses –
- Eagles – ass
- Giants – booty
- Chicago – unwiped asshole
- Green Bay – ….. Ha!
- Jets – bottom of my shoe
- Panthers – actually sort of decent mostly against the run and Dak still threw for 261 and 3 on the road without Lamb
- Commanders – a BBL that has gone horribly wrong
- So you may be thinking that taking Dobbins and maybe Denver D in lineups without this game is sharp. And you may be right. But, the pricing on Dobbins lends me to believe it’s not the right way to go. $5,800 for 14-16 touches and no passing game role. Kamara is $100 cheaper without Miller and the Buccs are a siv to pass catching backs. Derrick Henry is $200 more against the worst run defense in the league without Lamar. Stevenson is $300 cheaper as a big home favorite and Rachaad White is $500 more in a bellcow role against the Saints in the dome. Major opportunity cost here if you go that route, but…. he will be completed unowned with those guys around him.
- Long winded here, but if you’re not stacking Denver, I think this game is a pretty nice fade on a slate where pricing is tight.
TB/NO
- This game isn’t sneaky either, but the difference here is clear compared to the other chalk environments. Two subpar pass defenses, two teams that tend to play fast, and both QBs are fairly low owned compared to other games. This is a spot where both teams will have their opportunities to score and there are multiple ways to leverage this game to build your lineups.
- First on the TB side, Rachaad White is an strong RB value at only $6,400, Egbuka at $7,000 sans Mike Evans is a price you can stomach in this matchup, Tez Johnson and Shepard seem to have reliable secondary roles, and not to mention, Cade Otton. There’s so many ways to go and if you’re not playing White, TB stacks are in play. Also, NO isn’t a good defense as we all know but they have been a bit better against the run lately and White’s value is in his price and opportunity. He’s one of the least explosive running backs in the league (legitimately, 2nd to last with Chuba Hubbard being dead last) so just be mindful of where you can pivot. Passing game usage is always encouraging which helps his floor but here’s your warning about his ceiling.
- From the NO side, we always love us some Rattler and now he gets Juwan Johnson back and TB is the ultimate definition of a pass funnel. This is one of my favorite GPP stacks (in all formats too) because of the combos you can make. Olave/Shaheed, Olave/Kamara, Olave/JJ, etc. This is a nice spot for sure and it’s cost effective. You can go get some big names from other games. Also, Kamara is way too cheap for the workload he’ll probably see here.
- I believe this game gets set off from the NO side for sure. I think there’s a world where TB moves the ball, White scores a couple TDs, Baker throws for 1-2 and then nobody but White matters. On the NO side, there’s real tourney winning upside. Rattler is $4,700 and is in the dome against one of the easier matchups he’s seen? Against a team that’s designed to stuff the run? How do we not have interest. My preferred route is taking Rattler and going Olave/Kamara or Olave/Juwan Johnson with Rachaad White or Egbuka. Shaheed is viable too, just not afan of the scheme here as TB plays very little man and limits those go routes.
- If Rattler has that 300 and 3 game that’s been alluding him, he will take someone along for the ride with him at these prices. Just plz god, no Taysom Hill fuckery.
TEN/IND
- I think one of the bigger edges that I’ve seen over the last few weeks is that people are not attacking these Colts games the right way. There will absolutely be a slate this year where a Danny Dimes double stack wins someone a bunch of money. But… similarly to how people have a hard on to attack Dallas…. they should be looking at the Colts in the same fashion.
- I wrote up last week how the Colts tend to play slow but they’re an incredibly efficient offense. They put a lot of pressure on almost any defense but as we’ve seen this year when they play below average defenses (Dolphins, Cardinals, Raiders, Rams, banged up Chargers, early season Broncos), they really can hang a big number on these teams. And their numbers at home have been just absolutlely staggering, averaging well over 30 PPG at home.
- This team has produced game enviornments where we’ve seen near ceiling outcomes for their opponents too….
- Broncos – Nix 3 TDs, 220 yards, Dobbins 76 yards and a TD
- Cardinals – Brissett 2 TDs, 329 yards
- Rams – Stafford 376 and 3 TDs, Nacua 13/170/1, Adams 4/56/1
- Chargers – Herbert 420 and 3 TDs, Gadsden and Allen both over 100 yards and a score
- I’m not saying that the Titans will realize that same success. But on a slate where we want to spend up at one WR spot and if we can, two RB spots, I think Cam Ward with Dike/Helm, Dike/Chig, Ayomanor/Chig, etc. is a fantastic way to leverage your Jonathan Taylor shares here.
- The Colts are producing elite game environments for their opponents and this game in a dome against a team that tends to pump the brakes when they have a lead is a spot I want to be early on. In my MME sets, I’m going to set aside 5-10% for Titans stacks in hopes this is the week that we’re early on the Cam Ward experience. He already had some more success last week with that bum Callhan getting canned and this Colts defense will set in a shell zone, let you move the ball, and then hope to try and disrupt you to end your drive. They’re not this defense that will come after you over and over.
- There is a lot of downside here too where the Colts may win this game like 35-7 and you’re dead on arrival. But, this will be surely unowned and will allow you to spend up to get all the elite plays your heart desires. Oh, also, Jonathan Taylor just has a lot of sexual intercourse, so yeah. Go leverage that.
Here are my favorite stacks of the week heading into Sunday (in no particular order) –
- Bengals
- Saints
- Falcons (if London is out I like this a LOT less)
- Eagles
- Giants
- Broncos
- Titans
- Buccaneers
Finally, here is the core I’m going to be using to start my builds. This is subject to change with injury news and comments from coaching staffs, but you can use this as a starting point and pivot off of –
UPDATED CORE for GPPs (please note, I highly encourage mixing in Jonathan Taylor and Ja’Marr Chase where applicable)
BOL! – Jason O