MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Cole Ragans (KCR): Ragans leads this list with the highest projected Ceiling at 62.39 and the highest Top_finish rate at 28%. His Salary is $9300. His Median projection is 25.56, also the highest. His projected ownership is 18.1%. Ragans is projected as the top pitcher across multiple key performance metrics, indicating elite upside.
Chris Sale (ATL): Sale has a high Ceiling projection of 53.63 and a Top_finish rate of 13%. His Salary is $8900. His Median projection is 22.17. His projected ownership is 25.4%. Sale is another top-tier pitching option with significant upside and is projected to be one of the higher-owned pitchers.
Logan Webb (SFG): Webb has a high Salary of $9700, one of the highest among pitchers. His Ceiling is 52.36 and his Top_finish rate is 12%. His Median projection is 21.61. His projected ownership is 17.6%. Webb offers high strikeout potential and projects as a high-end option with a solid ceiling.
MacKenzie Gore (WAS): Gore has a lower Salary at $8600 compared to Sale and Webb. His Ceiling projection is 54.65, which is higher than Sale and Webb. His Top_finish rate is 11%. His Median projection is 21.70. His projected ownership is 9.8%. Gore presents an intriguing option with a high ceiling projection relative to his salary and a relatively low ownership projection.
Garrett Crochet (BOS): Crochet has the highest Salary among this group at $10600. His Ceiling is 51.89 and his Top_finish rate is 9%. His Median projection is 21.02. His projected ownership is 11.2%. Crochet is an expensive pitcher with a high ceiling, indicating his potential for big games despite a slightly lower Top_finish rate compared to others

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Corbin Burnes (ARI): Burnes is projected to be the highest owned pitcher at 26.4%. His Salary is $9100. His Median projection is 16.50 and his Ceiling is 40.79. His Top_finish rate is 1%. Burnes’ high ownership suggests he is a popular choice despite having lower Median, Ceiling, and Top_finish projections compared to other high-salary pitchers like Ragans or Sale.
Chris Sale (ATL): Sale is projected to be the second-highest owned pitcher at 25.4%. His Salary is $8900. He has strong projections with a Median of 22.17, Ceiling of 53.63, and Top_finish rate of 13%. Sale is a high-owned option with legitimate high-end projections.
Cole Ragans (KCR): Ragans is projected for 18.1% ownership. As noted in the previous breakdown, he has the highest Median (25.56), highest Ceiling (62.39), and highest Top_finish rate (28%) among pitchers listed in the sources. His ownership is significant but notably lower than Burnes or Sale, potentially offering leverage given his elite projections.
Joe Ryan (MIN): Ryan is projected for 13.7% ownership. His Salary is $9500. His Median is 19.57, Ceiling is 49.57, and Top_finish rate is 6%. Ryan is a mid-range owned pitcher with solid, though not elite, projected performance metrics.
Taj Bradley (TBR): Bradley has a lower Salary at $7000 compared to the other pitchers discussed. He is projected for 13.2% ownership. His Median is 14.46, Ceiling is 36.15, and Top_finish rate is 0%. Bradley represents a lower-salaried, lower-owned pitching option, which could be considered in specific roster builds, though his projected performance metrics are modest

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani (LAD): Ohtani stands out with the highest Ceiling projection at 72.69, significantly higher than any other player listed. His Salary is $6500, also the highest. He has the highest Median projection (12.03), the highest Top_5_finish rate (55%), and the highest 2x% (32%). Despite his high Own% of 16.7%, his exceptional projected upside across multiple metrics makes him a prime high-ceiling option.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SDP): Tatis Jr. has a high Ceiling projection of 44.64 and a Median projection of 9.26. His Salary is $5900. He has a 20% Top_5_finish rate and a 14% 2x%. His projected ownership is 6.0%. Tatis Jr. offers significant upside with a relatively low ownership level compared to his high salary and potential.
Freddie Freeman (LAD): Freeman, a teammate of Ohtani, has a high Salary of $6200 and a Ceiling of 42.29. His Median projection is 9.09. He has an 18% Top_5_finish rate and a 9% 2x%. His projected ownership is 8.3%. Freeman represents another high-salaried, high-upside option on a potentially high-scoring team.
Juan Soto (NYM): Soto’s Salary is $5400. His Ceiling projection is 41.27 and his Median is 8.94. He has a 15% Top_5_finish rate and a 16% 2x%. His projected ownership is 5.1%. Soto provides a combination of solid projected performance (high Median, Ceiling) with relatively low ownership.
Corbin Carroll (ARI): Carroll has a high Salary of $6000. His Ceiling projection is 38.02 and his Median is 8.77. He has a 14% Top_5_finish rate and an 8% 2x%. Notably, his projected ownership is 15.4%, which is the highest among this group except for Ohtani. Carroll is a highly-owned option with a good ceiling projection, indicating he is a popular choice for DFS lineups

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Michael Stefanic (TOR): Stefanic has a very low Salary of $2000, the minimum listed. He boasts a high 2x% of 86%, which is the highest rate shown in the sources. His Median projection is 7.97 and his Ceiling is 30.24. His projected ownership is 2.9%. Stefanic is a prime example of a potential value play, offering a high probability of exceeding salary expectations despite a lower overall projection.
James Outman (LAD): Outman has a low Salary of $2100 and a high 2x% of 84%. His Median projection is 7.70 and his Ceiling is 34.40. His projected ownership is 8.6%. Outman offers both high value potential (high 2x%) and a decent ceiling projection for his low salary, making him an attractive option.
Brenton Doyle (COL): Doyle has a Salary of $3500. He has a high 2x% of 64%. His Median projection is 8.81 and his Ceiling is 40.67, which is quite high for his salary range. His projected ownership is 1.6%, which is very low. Doyle combines significant value potential (high 2x%) with a high ceiling and very low ownership, making him a potential GPP differentiator.
Zach Neto (LAA): Neto has a higher Salary at $4500 compared to the others in this group. He has a high 2x% of 51% and a very high Ceiling of 54.10, one of the highest among all hitters listed. His Median is 10.18, also among the highest. His projected ownership is 3.5%. Neto represents a player with a slightly higher salary but elite value potential (high 2x%) and elite upside (high Ceiling), combined with low ownership.
Jordan Beck (COL): Beck has a Salary of $3700. He has a 2x% of 51%. His Median is 8.34 and his Ceiling is 35.73. His projected ownership is 1.6%, the same as his teammate Doyle. Like Doyle, Beck offers value potential and a solid ceiling at a low salary and very low ownership

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

Colorado Rockies (COL): The Rockies stand out with the lowest projected ownership at 12.7%. Despite this, their Avg_Salary is $3333.33, which is the lowest among all listed teams. Their chance of scoring 8+ Runs is 16%, which is tied for the third lowest rate presented. While their 8+ Runs percentage is low, their extremely low ownership could make them an intriguing GPP pivot if combined with high-upside, low-owned hitters.
San Diego Padres (SDP): The Padres have the second-lowest projected ownership at 17.0%. Their Avg_Salary is $5000.00, tied for the highest average salary among all listed teams. Their likelihood of scoring 8+ Runs is projected at 23%, placing them near the bottom of the list. Despite having expensive players (indicated by high Avg_Salary), their low team ownership and moderate 8+ Runs chance might make them a less popular stack option.
Los Angeles Angels (LAA): The Angels have a projected ownership of 19.8%. Their Avg_Salary is $3700.00. The Angels have a 29% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, which is the second highest rate among the teams listed in this breakdown, trailing only the Dodgers. Given their relatively low ownership compared to their decent 8+ Runs probability, they might offer some leverage in GPPs.
Miami Marlins (MIA): The Marlins are projected for 22.9% ownership. Their Avg_Salary is $3816.67, which is on the lower end of the list. They have an 18% chance of scoring 8+ Runs. The Marlins present a combination of lower salary players and a low probability of a high-scoring game.
Washington Nationals (WAS): The Nationals are projected for 34.7% ownership. Their Avg_Salary is $4133.33. They have a 17% chance of scoring 8+ Runs. Similar to the Marlins, the Nationals have a low 8+ Runs probability and a relatively low average salary, suggesting they are not projected for significant offensive outbursts