MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Kris Bubic (KCR): Bubic has a salary of $9700. He is projected with a median of 20.31 and a high ceiling of 49.52. He has a strong 21% chance of being the top fantasy scorer in simulations, tied for the highest rate in this list. His projected ownership is 12.3%, suggesting he offers high upside and a significant probability of being the top scorer at relatively low ownership.
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): Sanchez has a lower salary at $8000 compared to Bubic and Castillo. He has the highest ceiling projection in this list at 50.77 and a median of 20.17. He is also tied for the highest chance of being the top fantasy scorer at 21%. His projected ownership is the highest among these pitchers at 30.7%, indicating he is a popular play due to his lower salary combined with elite ceiling and top finish potential.
Luis Castillo (SEA): Castillo has a high salary of $9500. He projects with a median of 18.53 and a ceiling of 44.44. He has a 13% chance of being the top fantasy scorer. His projected ownership is 26.1%, making him a moderately popular high-salary option with solid, but not elite, ceiling and top finish probability compared to Bubic and Sanchez.
Robbie Ray (SFG): Ray has the highest salary in this list at $10000. His projections include a median of 18.76 and a ceiling of 47.09. He has a 12% chance of being the top fantasy scorer. His projected ownership is 13.3%, suggesting he offers a high ceiling at low ownership, though his probability of being the absolute top scorer is slightly lower than the others high on the ceiling list.
Bailey Ober (MIN): Ober has a salary of $8200. He projects with a median of 17.46 and a ceiling of 40.80. His chance of being the top fantasy scorer is 8%. His projected ownership is 26.6%, making him a moderately popular pitcher with a solid ceiling and median projection at a mid-range salary, though his top finish probability is lower than others in this group

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): Sanchez is listed with the highest projected ownership at 30.7% in this source. He has a salary of $8000. He projects exceptionally well with a median of 20.17 and a high ceiling of 50.77. His probability of being the top fantasy scorer is 21%, tied for the highest among pitchers in these sources. His combination of strong projections at a non-elite salary makes him the most popular pitcher listed.
Sonny Gray (STL): Gray has the second highest projected ownership at 27.7%. His salary is $9000. He projects with a median of 15.75 and a ceiling of 40.58. His probability of being the top fantasy scorer is 4%, which is significantly lower than the others at the top of this ownership list. His high ownership despite a relatively modest top finish rate compared to others suggests popularity might be driven by other factors not detailed here.
Bailey Ober (MIN): Ober’s projected ownership is 26.6%. His salary is $8200. He projects with a median of 17.46 and a ceiling of 40.80. His chance of being the top fantasy scorer is 8%. His popularity is slightly less than Gray’s despite having higher median and top finish projections at a lower salary.
Luis Castillo (SEA): Castillo has a projected ownership of 26.1%. His salary is $9500. He projects with a median of 18.53 and a ceiling of 44.44. His probability of being the top fantasy scorer is 13%, higher than Gray and Ober. He is a popular high-salary option with solid projections, though his ownership is slightly less than the top two most popular pitchers.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR): Pepiot has a projected ownership of 15.4%. His salary is $7800. He projects with a median of 15.92 and a ceiling of 39.49. His chance of being the top fantasy scorer is 5%. He represents a pitcher with lower ownership compared to the most popular options, offering a mid-range salary and projections

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD): Ohtani is listed with the highest median projection at 11.37 and a remarkable ceiling projection of 65.26. He has a high salary of $6500, which is tied for the highest among hitters in these sources. He finishes as a top 5 fantasy scorer in an impressive 52% of simulations and scores over 2x his salary/1000 (13 points) in 26% of simulations. His projected ownership is 20.7%, indicating he is a popular but not excessively chalky play despite his elite projections.
Corbin Carroll (OF, ARI): Carroll is featured with the second-highest median projection at 10.38 and a strong ceiling of 56.48. His salary is $6200. He is projected to finish as a top 5 fantasy scorer in 38% of simulations and scores over 2x his salary (12.4 points) in 18% of simulations. His projected ownership is 13.0%, which is relatively low considering his high ceiling and top 5 probability.
Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD): Freeman has a high salary of $6300 and notable projections with a median of 8.74 and a ceiling of 39.42. He is projected to finish in the top 5 fantasy scorers in 20% of simulations and score over 2x his salary (12.6 points) in just 6% of simulations. His projected ownership is 4.8%, which is quite low for a player with his salary and top 5 finish rate, potentially offering significant leverage.
Tommy Edman (2B/OF, LAD): Edman has a salary of $4100. His projections include a median of 8.40 and a ceiling of 38.38. He has an 18% chance of finishing in the top 5 fantasy scorers, which is solid for his salary tier. Notably, he has a very high 2x% rate at 39%, indicating he frequently scores more than twice his salary/1000 (8.2 points). His ownership is 8.8%, making him a potentially high-value, low-owned option with upside.
Jose Caballero (OF/SS, TBR): Caballero has a lower salary at $3600 compared to the top hitters on this list. His median projection is 8.50 and ceiling is 33.43. He has a 17% chance of a top 5 finish. His 2x% rate is exceptionally high at 56%, meaning he scores over 7.2 points more than half the time. His ownership is 15.4%, representing a player with significant value (high 2x%) and a decent ceiling at a moderate salary and ownership

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Carson McCusker (OF, MIN): McCusker has the lowest salary in this list at $2000. His median projection is 6.91 and ceiling is 21.60. His top 5 finish rate is just 3%, but his 2x% rate is a high 81%. This indicates he frequently scores over 4 points, providing excellent value relative to his minimum salary, although his ceiling and top finish probability are low. His ownership is 5.2%, making him a low-owned potential value play.
Jordan Lawlar (2B, ARI): Lawlar has a low salary of $2200. He projects with a median of 7.29 and a ceiling of 23.04. He has a 7% chance of a top 5 finish and a high 2x% rate of 79%. This shows he is very likely to score more than 4.4 points, offering significant value at a low price. His ownership is 5.3%, suggesting he is a low-owned value option with slightly higher upside than McCusker.
Dairon Blanco (OF, KCR): Blanco is also priced low at $2200. His projections are a median of 7.18 and a ceiling of 21.71. His top 5 finish rate is 5%, and his 2x% rate is 78%. Like Lawlar, he offers a high probability of scoring over 4.4 points relative to his salary. His projected ownership is the lowest in this group at 1.8%, making him a very low-owned potential value play.
Luis Rengifo (2B/3B, LAA): Rengifo has a slightly higher salary of $2700. His median projection is 7.35 and ceiling is 27.35. He has a 6% chance of a top 5 finish and a high 2x% rate of 65%. This means he frequently scores over 5.4 points, offering good value relative to his modest salary. His ownership is 5.2%, indicating he is a low-owned value option with a higher ceiling than the players above him on this list.
Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA): Schanuel has a salary of $3000, the highest among the top players in this value list. His median projection is 7.83 and ceiling is 30.51. He stands out with an 11% chance of a top 5 finish, significantly higher than other players high in the 2x% list. His 2x% rate is 62%. With an ownership of 8.3%, Schanuel offers a combination of strong value (high 2x%), decent upside (higher Top_5_finish and Ceiling) at a reasonable salary and low ownership

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

Detroit Tigers (DET): This team has the lowest projected ownership percentage in the dataset at 14.9%. Their average salary is $4216.67, which is around the middle of the pack compared to other teams listed. Their chance of scoring 8 or more runs is 17%, which is tied for the third lowest rate among these teams. Targeting players from DET could offer significant leverage due to their low ownership, but the simulations suggest they have a relatively low probability of a high-scoring offensive output compared to teams like LAD or ARI.
Oakland Athletics (ATH): The Athletics have the second lowest projected ownership at 26.4%. Their average salary is $4066.67, slightly lower than Detroit’s. Similar to DET, they have a low probability of scoring 8 or more runs at 18%, which is also tied for the third lowest rate. Like the Tigers, stacking or selecting individual players from the A’s offers low ownership appeal, but is accompanied by a low expected team scoring environment according to the simulations.
Houston Astros (HOU): With a projected ownership of 44.6%, the Astros fall into the lower-middle tier of ownership among these teams. They have the lowest average salary at $3500.00. Their chance of scoring 8 or more runs is also 17%, tying them with Detroit for a low mark in this dataset. Despite having the lowest average salary, their 8+ Runs% is comparable to teams with higher average salaries and slightly lower ownership, like DET and ATH.
Colorado Rockies (COL): The Rockies have a projected ownership of 46.1%. Their average salary is $3966.67. They are tied with DET and HOU with a 17% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, one of the lowest rates in this list. Their ownership is slightly higher than HOU despite having the same low 8+ Runs%.
Los Angeles Angels (LAA): The Angels’ projected ownership is 49.1%. Their average salary is the second lowest in the dataset at $3800.00. They have a 22% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, which is slightly better than the lowest marks but still significantly lower than the top teams. Their ownership is just under 50%, making them a moderately owned low-to-mid tier scoring offense in this dataset