MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Luis Ortiz (CLE): With a salary of $6000, Ortiz leads this list with the highest median projection (21.36) and the highest ceiling projection (52.34). He also has the highest rate of finishing as the top scorer (19%). His ownership is 29.3%. Ortiz stands out as a potential slate breaker given his combination of lower salary relative to other aces, highest median/ceiling, and top-finishing potential, making him a premier target despite moderate ownership.
Chris Bassitt (TOR): Bassitt has a higher salary at $8600. He has the second highest median (20.75) and second highest ceiling projection (50.01) among these pitchers. His rate of finishing as the top scorer is 16%. His ownership is 11.9%. Bassitt offers elite upside similar to Ortiz in terms of median/ceiling but comes at a significantly higher salary and lower ownership, making him a strong GPP pivot or core play if salary allows.
Matthew Liberatore (STL): Listed at a high salary of $8700, Liberatore has a median projection of 19.47 and a ceiling projection of 47.10. His rate of finishing as the top scorer is 10%. His ownership is 5.5%. Liberatore projects for a solid ceiling and top-finishing rate at a high salary but very low ownership, making him an interesting contrarian play if you are willing to pay up for a pitcher few others are rostering.
Bryan Woo (SEA): Woo’s salary is the highest on this list at $9500. He projects for a median of 19.60 and a ceiling of 47.22. His rate of finishing as the top scorer is 9%. His ownership is 21.1%. Woo represents the top tier in terms of salary, offering a high ceiling and decent top-finishing rate, albeit with lower projected median/ceiling than Ortiz or Bassitt. His ownership is moderate.
Merrill Kelly (ARI): Kelly is listed at a salary of $8500. He has a median of 19.53 and a ceiling projection of 47.83. His rate of finishing as the top scorer is 9%. His ownership is 9.2%. Kelly provides high ceiling potential similar to Liberatore and Woo at a slightly lower salary than Woo, and with relatively low ownership, making him a potential GPP option.

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

David Peterson (NYM): Listed with a salary of $9000, Peterson has a median projection of 17.63 and a ceiling of 43.63. His rate of finishing as the top scorer is 6%. Crucially, his projected ownership is the highest on this list at 35.6%. Despite moderate performance projections compared to pitchers in the Ceiling source, his high ownership suggests he is a popular choice, perhaps due to matchup or other perceived factors not listed, making him a fade consideration in GPPs aiming for differentiation.
Luis Ortiz (CLE): With a salary of $6000, Ortiz projects extremely well with a median of 21.36 and a ceiling of 52.34, and a 19% rate of finishing as the top scorer. His ownership is 29.3%, the second highest on this list. Given his elite projections at a more accessible salary, his relatively high ownership is understandable, making him a potential cash game staple or a high-upside GPP core play despite being popular.
Nick Pivetta (SDP): Pivetta has a high salary of $9800. His median projection is 18.04 and ceiling is 45.51. His rate of finishing as the top scorer is 6%. His ownership is 25.6%. Pivetta is a high-salary pitcher with solid but not elite performance projections and moderate ownership, potentially making him an option for those looking for a slight pivot off higher-owned pitchers with similar salary.
Bryan Woo (SEA): Woo is another high-salaried pitcher on this list at $9500. He projects for a median of 19.60 and a ceiling of 47.22, with a 9% rate of finishing as the top scorer. His ownership is 21.1%. Woo offers high-end potential at the top of the salary scale with moderate ownership, suitable for lineups prioritizing pitching upside.
Framber Valdez (HOU): Listed at a salary of $9200, Valdez has lower performance projections than others on this list, with a median of 15.95, ceiling of 39.65, and a 2% rate of finishing as the top scorer. His ownership is 16.5%. Valdez represents a pitcher with a high salary but lower projected performance and lower ownership compared to the others here, which might appeal to contrarian players hoping for an outcome exceeding his projections.

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani (LAD): Listed with the highest salary at $6400, Ohtani also has the highest median projection (9.64) and highest ceiling projection (47.03) among these players. His rate of finishing as a top 5 scorer is 27%, also the highest on this list. Despite these top-tier projections, his projected ownership is only 4.9%, suggesting he could be a high-upside, lower-owned play relative to his potential.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): With a salary of $4800, Guerrero Jr. has a high median (9.34) and ceiling projection (44.77), ranking second in both metrics on this list. He boasts a strong 26% rate of finishing in the top 5. His ownership is 16.4%, which is higher than Ohtani’s but still potentially reasonable given his high ceiling and consistent high-end performance potential.
Ketel Marte (ARI): Marte carries a $5400 salary. He shows a high median (9.20) and ceiling projection (42.94), matching Corbin Carroll’s ceiling. His rate of finishing in the top 5 is 23%. His ownership is 12.6%. Marte provides a high ceiling option at second base, a position that can sometimes lack top-tier upside, and comes at a salary below the top players like Ohtani.
Corbin Carroll (ARI): At a $6000 salary, Carroll has a high median (9.28) and ceiling projection (42.94), identical to Ketel Marte’s ceiling projection. He has a 22% rate of finishing in the top 5. His ownership is 12.8%. Carroll offers high-end outfield potential, similar to Marte in projection but at a higher salary and slightly higher ownership.
Trent Grisham (NYY): With a salary of $4700, Grisham has a median of 8.90 and a ceiling projection of 44.63, notably close to Guerrero Jr.’s ceiling. His rate of finishing in the top 5 is 20%. His ownership is 6.9%. Grisham stands out as a potential high-ceiling play at a more moderate salary and lower ownership compared to the other top ceiling options, making him an interesting GPP consideration.

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Ernie Clement (TOR): With a low salary of $2400, Clement has a median projection of 6.78 and a ceiling of 22.38. Crucially, he has the highest 2x% on this list at 63%, indicating a very high probability of exceeding 2.4 fantasy points (2x Salary/1000). His ownership is 9.9%. Clement is a prime example of a value play, offering a strong chance to return value on his low salary.
Thairo Estrada (COL): Listed at an even lower salary of $2000, Estrada has a median of 5.50 and a ceiling of 15.52. His 2x% is 60%. His ownership is 3.5%. Estrada provides extreme salary relief and a high chance of hitting value, making him an appealing option when every dollar counts, particularly given his very low ownership.
Miguel Rojas (LAD): Another player at the minimum salary of $2000, Rojas has a median of 5.44 and a ceiling of 14.17. His 2x% is 60%. His ownership is exceptionally low at 0.9%. Rojas offers similar value potential to Estrada at the minimum salary but with even less projected ownership, representing a deep contrarian value option.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT): At a salary of $2700, Horwitz has a median of 6.65 and a ceiling of 25.15, notably higher ceiling than other low-salary players like Clement or Estrada. His 2x% is 56%. His ownership is 1.5%. Horwitz offers a combination of high value probability and a slightly higher ceiling than some other minimum-salary players, with very low ownership.
Henry Davis (PIT): A catcher with a salary of $2200, Davis has a median of 5.61 and a ceiling of 17.23. His 2x% is 54%. His ownership is 0.7%. Catchers can be difficult to find value from, and Davis stands out with a solid 2x% probability at a low salary and near-zero ownership, making him a potential GPP differentiator at the catcher position.

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD): With the highest 8+ Runs percentage at 32%, the Dodgers project to have a strong offensive output frequently. Their average salary is also the highest at $5366.67. Despite this high offensive potential and salary, their projected ownership is relatively low at 21.6%. This combination of high scoring potential and lower ownership makes them an interesting target, particularly in GPPs where you want high upside with lower roster percentage.
St. Louis Cardinals (STL): The Cardinals show a 27% chance of scoring 8+ runs, matching teams like TOR and NYY in this metric. Their average salary is $4616.67. Their ownership is quite low at 19.2%, the second lowest among the teams listed with a 27% 8+ Runs projection. This presents a potential value opportunity if you are looking for teams with solid offensive upside at minimal ownership.
Cleveland Guardians (CLE): Cleveland has a lower 8+ Runs percentage at 20% compared to the top teams. Their average salary is $4083.33. Their projected ownership is 21.2%, similar to LAD but with less projected offense. They might be considered for contrarian builds where you believe their offensive projection is understated or in specific matchup contexts, given their lower salary average.
Houston Astros (HOU): The Astros have an 18% chance of scoring 8+ runs. Their average salary is $3916.67. Their ownership is 24.0%. While their 8+ Runs percentage is lower than the top group, their lower average salary and moderate ownership could make them a consideration for stacking if trying to fit higher-priced pitchers or hitters elsewhere in your lineup.
San Diego Padres (SDP): San Diego also shows an 18% chance of scoring 8+ runs. Their average salary is $4533.33. Their ownership is 34.7%, which is on the higher end of the lower-owned group but still below the teams with ownership over 50%. They offer a similar offensive projection to HOU and BOS but come at a slightly higher average salary and ownership than HOU.