MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Carlos Rodon (NYY SP): Rodon has the highest salary in this list at $10300. He also leads in Median projection (22.15), Ceiling projection (54.42), and Top_finish rate (28%). His ownership is projected at 28.9%. Rodon’s metrics across the board position him as a top-tier pitcher with the highest probability of being the slate’s top scorer and significant upside, justifying his high salary and relatively high ownership.
Spencer Strider (ATL SP): Strider has a salary of $8500. He has strong projections with a Median of 20.13, a Ceiling of 48.95, and a Top_finish rate of 16%. His ownership is projected at 27.4%. Strider is priced lower than Rodon but still offers elite projection and upside metrics, making him a top contender with similar projected ownership.
Pablo Lopez (MIN SP): Lopez is listed with a salary of $9300. His projections are solid with a Median of 19.22, a Ceiling of 48.64, and a Top_finish rate of 13%. His ownership is projected at 14.2%. Lopez is priced between Rodon and Strider, offering similar upside metrics to Strider but at significantly lower projected ownership, making him a potential leverage play.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA SP): Kikuchi has a lower salary at $6700. He has a Median projection of 18.33, a Ceiling of 44.13, and a Top_finish rate of 11%. His ownership is projected at 13.9%. Kikuchi stands out as a potential value option, offering solid projections and a decent Top_finish rate at a much lower salary and similar low ownership to Lopez.
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI SP): Sanchez is listed with a salary of $9500. His Median projection is 18.77, his Ceiling is 45.75, and his Top_finish rate is 10%. His ownership is projected at a low 8.6%. Sanchez has projections comparable to Lopez but is priced higher and has a slightly lower Top_finish rate, though his projected ownership is the lowest among this group

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Carlos Rodon (NYY SP): Rodon has a salary of $10300. His Median is 22.15, Ceiling is 54.42, and Top_finish rate is 28%. His ownership is projected at 28.9%. As seen in the Ceiling data, Rodon leads in projection and slate-winning probability and is projected as one of the most owned pitchers.
Spencer Strider (ATL SP): Strider has a salary of $8500. His Median is 20.13, Ceiling is 48.95, and Top_finish rate is 16%. His ownership is projected at 27.4%. Strider is projected with slightly lower ownership than Rodon while offering elite projections, making him a very popular and strong option.
Hunter Greene (CIN SP): Greene has a salary of $9500. His Median is 16.37, Ceiling is 40.81, and Top_finish rate is 3%. His ownership is projected at 21.3%. Greene is projected with significant ownership despite lower Median, Ceiling, and Top_finish rates compared to Rodon, Strider, or Lopez, suggesting he might be owned more based on reputation or perceived upside than his listed projection metrics.
George Kirby (SEA SP): Kirby has a salary of $8200. His Median is 10.27, Ceiling is 28.00, and Top_finish rate is 0%. His ownership is projected at 19.3%. Kirby is projected with notable ownership despite the lowest Median, Ceiling, and a 0% Top_finish rate among these pitchers. This suggests he might be significantly over-owned relative to his projection data.
Pablo Lopez (MIN SP): Lopez is listed with a salary of $9300. His Median is 19.22, Ceiling is 48.64, and Top_finish rate is 13%. His ownership is projected at 14.2%. Lopez stands out in this ownership-focused list as offering elite projections at a lower ownership rate compared to Rodon, Strider, or Greene

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Francisco Lindor (NYM SS): Lindor has the highest salary in this group at $5600. He also leads in Median projection (10.67) and Ceiling projection (61.15). Furthermore, he has the highest Top_5_finish rate at 38% and a solid 2x% of 35%. His projected ownership is 3.3%. These metrics suggest Lindor is a premier option with high expected performance and significant upside, justifying his high salary. His low ownership relative to his projection metrics is noteworthy.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD 1B/OF): Ohtani has the highest salary across all hitters listed in sources at $6400. He has a Median projection of 9.44 and a high Ceiling projection of 46.43. His Top_5_finish rate is 21%, and his 2x% is 8%. His ownership is projected at 14.8%. Ohtani offers substantial upside reflected in his Ceiling and Top_5_finish metrics, albeit at a high cost and higher ownership than Lindor.
Jorge Polanco (SEA 3B/SS): Polanco is listed with a salary of $4300. His Median projection is 8.99, and his Ceiling projection is 43.50. He has an 18% Top_5_finish rate and a high 45% 2x%. His ownership is projected at a low 3.2%. Polanco presents an interesting case with a lower salary than Lindor or Ohtani but a competitive Ceiling and a very high 2x% rate, suggesting strong potential for value relative to his cost, combined with low ownership.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN SS): De La Cruz has a salary of $6100. His Median projection is 9.10, and his Ceiling projection is 39.92. He has a 17% Top_5_finish rate and a 9% 2x%. His ownership is projected at 3.8%. De La Cruz carries a high salary and notable upside (Ceiling), though his 2x% is relatively low compared to players like Polanco or Lindor. His low ownership suggests he might be a contrarian option for tournaments.
Trent Grisham (NYY OF): Grisham is listed with a salary of $4500. His Median projection is 9.05, and his Ceiling projection is 45.74. He has a 15% Top_5_finish rate and a high 40% 2x%. His ownership is projected at 4.0%. Grisham stands out with a high Ceiling and a strong 2x% rate for his salary, coupled with low ownership, making him a potential value play with significant upside

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Mike Tauchman (CHW OF): Tauchman is listed with a salary of $3000. He has a Median projection of 8.46 and a Ceiling projection of 36.23. He has the highest 2x% in this group at 72%. His Top_5_finish rate is 11%. His ownership is projected at 3.3%. Tauchman’s exceptionally high 2x% indicates a strong likelihood of exceeding salary expectations by a significant margin, making him a prime value target, especially at low ownership.
Cole Young (SEA 2B): Young has a salary of $2100. His Median projection is 6.40, and his Ceiling projection is 19.25. He has a 2x% of 71% and a Top_5_finish rate of 1%. His ownership is projected at a very low 1.3%. Young offers a very high chance of returning value (71% 2x%) at a near-minimum salary and extremely low ownership, making him a high-leverage punt play for tournaments, though his overall upside (Ceiling, Top_5_finish) appears lower than Tauchman.
Starling Marte (NYM OF): Marte is listed with a salary of $3200. He has a Median projection of 8.65 and a Ceiling projection of 37.27. He has a high 2x% of 67% and a Top_5_finish rate of 13%. His ownership is projected at 8.7%. Marte combines a high 2x% and a solid Top_5_finish rate with a manageable salary, presenting a strong value option with higher projected output and upside compared to Young, albeit at slightly higher ownership.
Austin Slater (CHW OF): Slater has a salary of $2500. His Median projection is 7.12, and his Ceiling projection is 27.12. He has a 2x% of 66% and a Top_5_finish rate of 2%. His ownership is projected at 1.3%. Similar to Young, Slater offers a high chance of value (66% 2x%) at a near-minimum salary and extremely low ownership, making him another potential high-leverage punt play.
Dylan Carlson (BAL OF): Carlson is listed with a salary of $2400. His Median projection is 6.57, and his Ceiling projection is 26.03. He has a 2x% of 64% and a Top_5_finish rate of 1%. His ownership is projected at an extremely low 0.8%. Carlson offers a very high chance of value (64% 2x%) at a low salary with almost no projected ownership, making him an exceptionally high-leverage option for those looking to differentiate their tournament lineups

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

BAL (Baltimore Orioles): The Orioles have the second lowest projected ownership at 17.4%. Despite this lower ownership, they have the second highest percentage chance of scoring 8 or more runs at 26%. Their average player salary is $4116.67. This combination of a relatively high chance for a large run total and low ownership could make stacking Orioles players an intriguing strategy for tournaments, offering leverage against the field.
SEA (Seattle Mariners): The Mariners are projected to be owned at 20.5%. They have a 23% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, tied with the Yankees and Reds. Their average player salary is $4250. While their 8+ Runs% is decent, it’s slightly lower than Baltimore’s at a similar ownership level, making Baltimore potentially slightly more appealing from a low-owned upside perspective.
NYY (New York Yankees): The Yankees have a projected ownership of 27.6%. Their chance of scoring 8 or more runs is 25%. The Yankees have the highest average player salary among the listed teams at $5050. Their ownership is higher than Baltimore or Seattle, but their 8+ Runs% is also solid. Their high average salary might suggest higher-priced players expected to contribute to those runs.
CIN (Cincinnati Reds): The Reds are projected for 27.0% ownership. They are tied with Seattle and the Yankees with a 23% chance of scoring 8 or more runs. Their average player salary is $4283.33. Similar to the Yankees, their ownership is in the middle range for this group, but their 8+ Runs% offers decent upside.
ATL (Atlanta Braves): The Braves are projected for 44.2% ownership. They have a 22% chance of scoring 8 or more runs. Their average player salary is $4733.33. While still below the highest owned team (NYM), their ownership is significantly higher than the other teams discussed, making them less of a “low-owned” option, despite a solid 8+ Runs% and average salary