MLB DFS Slate Analysis
This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the MLB DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.
MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown
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Logan Gilbert (SEA): Gilbert carries the highest Salary at $9700 and boasts the top Ceiling projection at 48.59. His Median projection is also strong at 19.34. Notably, he has a 33% chance of being the Top_finish in simulations, indicating a significant likelihood of being the highest scoring pitcher on the slate. His Own% is 55.9%, making him a popular choice.
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Clarke Schmidt (NYY): With a Salary of $8700, Schmidt offers a high Ceiling of 42.36 and a Median of 16.80. He has a 14% chance of being the Top_finish. His Own% is 52.0%, suggesting he’s a frequently rostered option with strong upside.
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Ben Casparius (LAD): Casparius stands out with a much lower Salary of $6000 while still offering an impressive Ceiling of 41.86 and a Median of 17.48. He has an 18% chance of being the Top_finish, which is excellent for his price point. His extremely low Own% of 2.8% makes him a fantastic high-upside, low-owned GPP differentiator.
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Dylan Cease (SDP): At a Salary of $8400, Cease has a Ceiling of 39.80 and a Median of 15.47. He registers an 8% Top_finish rate. His Own% is relatively low at 10.3%, suggesting he could be a leverage play with significant strikeout upside that might not be fully captured by his ownership.
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Ryan Gusto (HOU): Gusto is priced at a Salary of $8000 and has a Ceiling of 37.62 with a Median of 15.06. He has a 6% chance of being the Top_finish. Similar to Cease, his Own% is also low at 10.3%, offering another potential contrarian option for tournaments
MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown
- Logan Gilbert (SEA): Gilbert is the highest owned pitcher on this slate with an Own% of 55.9%. With a Salary of $9700, he also boasts the highest Median (19.34) and Ceiling (48.59) projections, along with a 33% Top_finish rate. His high ownership indicates he is a popular choice for both cash games and as a core GPP play due to his strong projections.
- Clarke Schmidt (NYY): Schmidt is another highly owned pitcher with an Own% of 52.0%. His Salary is $8700, and he projects for a Median of 16.80 and a Ceiling of 42.36, with a 14% Top_finish rate. Like Gilbert, his high ownership reflects his strong overall fantasy outlook for the slate.
- Jake Irvin (WAS): Irvin presents a more moderate ownership at 15.5%. He has a Salary of $8100, a Median of 14.17, and a Ceiling of 35.80. His 3% Top_finish rate is lower than the top two, but his mid-range ownership could make him an interesting pivot in tournaments, offering a blend of solid production at a reasonable ownership.
- Ryan Pepiot (TBR): Pepiot offers a lower ownership percentage at 12.6%. With a Salary of $7600, he projects for a Median of 13.76 and a Ceiling of 36.01. His 4% Top_finish rate indicates some upside, and his relatively low ownership makes him a viable contrarian play, especially if looking to differentiate from the higher-owned arms.
- Dylan Cease (SDP): Cease is among the lowest owned pitchers at 10.3%. He has a Salary of $8400, a Median of 15.47, and a Ceiling of 39.80. His 8% Top_finish rate is quite strong for such low ownership, positioning him as a prime leverage target in GPPs. If he performs to his ceiling, he could provide a significant edge due to his low ownership
MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown
- Cal Raleigh (C, SEA): Raleigh presents a solid Ceiling of 42.88 and a Median of 8.85 with a high Salary of 6$000. His Top_5_finish rate is 20%, and he achieves a 2x% 9% of the time. Notably, his Own% is very low at 1.8%, making him a potential leverage play for those looking to differentiate their lineups in large field tournaments.
- Jordan Westburg (3B, BAL): Offering a high Ceiling of 42.19 and a Median of 8.44 at a more affordable Salary of $4100. Westburg’s 2x% is 39%, one of the highest among these top ceiling hitters, indicating excellent value for his price. His Top_5_finish rate is 13%, with an Own% of 23.0%.
- Brandon Lowe (2B, TBR): With a Ceiling of 39.62 and a Median of 8.68, Lowe is a reliable option at a Salary of $4600. He has a 19% Top_5_finish rate and a 30% 2x%, showing consistent ability to exceed his salary expectation. His Own% is 13.6%.
- Fernando Tatis (OF, SDP): Tatis displays a Ceiling of 39.30 and a Median of 8.49 for a Salary of $4900. He carries a 16% Top_5_finish rate and a 21% 2x%. His Own% is 15.2%, making him a viable option for those targeting high-upside outfielders
MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown
- Dominic Canzone (OF, SEA): At a very low Salary of $2300, Canzone presents an impressive Median of 7.28 and a Ceiling of 30.15. His 2x% is exceptionally high at 75%, making him one of the best value plays available, as he frequently exceeds his salary expectation. His Own% is 7.6%, indicating he’s relatively under-owned for his potential.
- Jacob Young (OF, WAS): Young is another budget-friendly option with a Salary of $2300. While his Median (7.01) and Ceiling (22.69) are lower than Canzone’s, his 2x% remains very high at 74%. With an extremely low Own% of 1.0%, Young is a strong contrarian value play for tournaments.
- Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI): With a slightly higher Salary of $2700, Marsh offers a good Median of 7.31 and a Ceiling of 25.62. His 2x% stands at 63%, signifying excellent potential for his cost. His Own% is very low at 1.6%, making him a hidden gem for value.
- Otto Lopez (SS, MIA): Lopez is listed in both ceiling and value data, indicating a strong blend of both at a Salary of $3400. He has a solid Median of 8.10 and a Ceiling of 31.95. His 2x% is 55%, showing consistent good returns for his price, though his Own% is 14.5%, suggesting he’s a more recognized value play.
- Tyler Freeman (OF, COL): At a Salary of $3700, Freeman offers a robust Median of 8.55 and a Ceiling of 33.92. His 2x% is also 55%, providing strong value. His Own% is 7.6%, making him a solid, less owned, value option
MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown
- Seattle Mariners (SEA): The Mariners have the lowest Own% at 31.1% among the listed teams. Their Avg_Salary is $4166.67, and they face Lucas Giolito (RHP). They have a 25% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, making them an appealing low-owned stack with significant offensive potential.
- Tampa Bay Rays (TBR): The Rays feature the second-lowest Own% at 49.5%. Their Avg_Salary is $4416.67, and they are up against Zach Eflin (RHP). With a 21% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, the Rays offer a solid mix of potential offensive outburst and lower projected ownership compared to some other teams.
- Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD): The Dodgers have an Own% of 54.0%, which is moderate but still lower than the highest owned teams. Their Avg_Salary is $5150, the highest among this group, and they face Dylan Cease (RHP). They boast the highest 8+ Runs probability in this group at 28%, making them an excellent upside play even with a slightly higher ownership.
- Philadelphia Phillies (PHI): The Phillies come in with an Own% of 67.5%. Their Avg_Salary is $4133.33, and they are matched up against Sandy Alcantara (RHP). They have a 22% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, indicating they can still provide a strong offensive performance despite higher projected ownership.
- Baltimore Orioles (BAL): The Orioles have an Own% of 73.6%. Their Avg_Salary is $4300, and they will be facing Ryan Pepiot (RHP). They have a 20% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, which is still respectable for a team with higher ownership, making them a consideration for their offensive floor and occasional big games