MLB DFS Slate Analysis – Pitcher Breakdown
This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the MLB DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.
MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown
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Sonny Gray (STL vs. MIA): With a Salary of $9700, Sonny Gray boasts the highest Median projection at 20.84 and a strong Ceiling of 44.66. He also leads with a 20% Top_finish rate, making him a prime high-upside option projected to be the top fantasy scorer in one-fifth of simulations. His 2x% is 51%, indicating a solid chance of returning value relative to his salary.
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Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. CIN): Priced at $9200, Glasnow shows the highest Ceiling of 47.01 among these five, suggesting significant explosive potential. His 15% Top_finish rate further solidifies his position as a strong contender for a top performance. A 56% 2x% indicates he is a reliable value play with substantial upside.
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Yusei Kikuchi (LAA vs. TEX): Kikuchi offers a compelling option at a more affordable Salary of $8000. He features a respectable Ceiling of 44.75 and a 14% Top_finish rate, demonstrating his capacity for a top performance despite a lower cost. His 68% 2x% is the highest in this group, underscoring his excellent value potential for DFS rosters.
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Justin Verlander (SFG vs. PIT): At a Salary of $7200, Verlander provides a solid Ceiling of 39.44 and a 10% Top_finish rate. His standout metric is his 71% 2x%, which is the highest recorded among all pitchers in the “Pitcher Ceiling Data.txt” source. This suggests he is an exceptional value pick.
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Max Fried (NYY vs. TBR): Fried is the highest-salaried pitcher in this selection at $10000. He projects with a Ceiling of 39.86 and a 9% Top_finish rate. While his 35% 2x% is comparatively lower, his high salary corresponds to higher expectations, and his ceiling still positions him as a potential slate-breaker for those willing to invest
MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown
- Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. CIN): Glasnow features the highest Own% at 30.1% among these players. His high ownership is justified by strong projections: a Median of 19.96, a top-tier Ceiling of 47.01, and an impressive 15% Top_finish rate. His 56% 2x% also indicates a good chance of returning value. He is likely a core play due to high projected performance, though his high ownership might warrant pairing him with lower-owned players in GPPs.
- Yusei Kikuchi (LAA vs. TEX): With an Own% of 19.4%, Kikuchi is another popular choice. His Salary of $8000 positions him as a relatively affordable option, yet he delivers strong projections with a Median of 19.66, a Ceiling of 44.75, and a 14% Top_finish rate. His excellent 68% 2x% further supports his popularity, indicating a high likelihood of exceeding value.
- Mike Soroka (WAS vs. HOU): Soroka has an Own% of 18.5%, which appears somewhat elevated given his lower projections. At a Salary of $7600, his Median is 14.89 and Ceiling is 32.47. His 1% Top_finish rate and 40% 2x% are notably lower than other highly owned options. This could signal a riskier, potentially over-owned play, possibly offering leverage if he underperforms.
- Max Fried (NYY vs. TBR): Fried carries an Own% of 18.4%, despite being the highest-salaried pitcher in this data set at $10000. His Median is 18.32 and Ceiling is 39.86, with a 9% Top_finish rate. His 35% 2x% is lower than the other popular options, suggesting his value per dollar might be less consistent, making his ownership an intriguing factor for lineup construction.
- Jesus Luzardo (PHI vs. CHW): Luzardo shows an Own% of 17.0%. His Salary is $9500, with a Median of 17.88, a Ceiling of 41.05, and a 6% Top_finish rate. His 35% 2x% aligns with Max Fried’s, indicating a similar value proposition for a high-salary pitcher. His moderate ownership combined with a solid ceiling makes him a viable option for those seeking upside at slightly lower ownership than the top-owned pitchers
MLB Pitcher Value Data Breakdown
- Pierson Ohl (MIN vs. BOS): Ohl is notable for his extremely low Salary of $4000. With an impressive 2x% of 80%, he is projected as the most likely pitcher in this dataset to score more than twice his salary in fantasy points. Despite a Median of 12.53 and a Ceiling of 26.93, his low cost makes him an exceptional value play, potentially freeing up significant salary for high-priced hitters. His 0% Top_finish rate indicates he’s not a slate-breaker, but his salary relief is immense.
- Justin Verlander (SFG vs. PIT): Verlander, with a Salary of $7200, exhibits an outstanding 2x% of 71%. This high rate, combined with a solid Median of 18.43 and a Ceiling of 39.44, positions him as a robust value option. His 10% Top_finish rate also suggests respectable upside, making him a strong mid-range value pick for various contest types.
- Yusei Kikuchi (LAA vs. TEX): At a Salary of $8000, Kikuchi delivers a 2x% of 68%, marking him as another excellent value play. His projections are strong, with a Median of 19.66 and a Ceiling of 44.75, alongside a notable 14% Top_finish rate. This combination of high value and high upside makes him a highly attractive option for DFS lineups.
- Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. CIN): Glasnow, at a higher Salary of $9200, still provides substantial value with a 2x% of 56%. He maintains a strong Median of 19.96 and the highest Ceiling of 47.01 among this group, paired with a 15% Top_finish rate. His ability to consistently return value even at a higher price point, coupled with elite upside, makes him a premium choice for both safety and ceiling.
- Patrick Corbin (TEX vs. LAA): Corbin is listed with a Salary of $7700 and a 2x% of 52%, indicating solid value. His Median is 17.02 and Ceiling is 37.67, with a 5% Top_finish rate. While his raw projections might be slightly lower, his 2x% signifies a reliable chance of returning value, making him a viable option for those building value-centric lineups.